Jackson Dannelley

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AATL	30	51	5.51	4.03	21.2%	11.5%	—	K 15.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.73
2026	24	MIX3 levels	32	35	3.12	3.56	26.8%	12.8%	—	K 19.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.55
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	57	60	5.50	5.50	16.6%	14.2%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	24	25	5.36	5.34	17.6%	13.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	35	37	5.30	5.31	18.0%	13.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsKevin Kopps (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25) · Jeff Ames (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%16.6%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	30	0	51	226	48	26	5	0%	1.7	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	2.2%	5.51	4.73	—
2025	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	30	0	51	226	48	26	5	0%	1.7	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	2.2%	5.51	4.73	—
2025	23	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	30	0	51	226	48	26	5	0%	1.7	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	2.2%	5.51	4.03	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	35	149	40	19	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.0%	3.12	4.55	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	0	35	149	40	19	3	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.7%	7.9%	3.0%	3.12	4.55	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	0	35	149	40	19	3	0%	1.1	26.8%	12.8%	14.1%	2.0%	3.12	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	42	36	7	0%	1.1	16.6%	14.2%	2.4%	2.9%	5.50	5.50	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	251	44	34	7	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.36	5.34	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	45	33	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	13.4%	4.6%	3.0%	5.30	5.31	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	19	14	3	0%	1.0	17.6%	13.7%	3.9%	2.9%	5.36	5.34	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	28	21	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.4%	4.6%	3.0%	5.30	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	47	35	8	0%	1.1	17.8%	13.5%	4.3%	3.0%	5.32	4.94	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	113	26	0%	1.1	17.8%	13.5%	4.3%	3.0%	5.32	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		62	0	85	375	65	48	9	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.8%	4.4%	2.5%	4.54	4.65	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	0	200	879	152	113	22	0%	1.4	17.3%	12.8%	4.4%	2.5%	4.54	4.65	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Dannelley (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	16.6%	14.2%	2.9%	—	5.33	17.8%	4.3%	118	-0.17	—	—	—
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	88
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	87
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	87
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	87
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	87
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	87
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	86
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	86
Daniel Webb R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	15.7%	13.4%	2.0%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	126	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	85
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	85
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	85
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	17.4%	13.8%	1.15	5.39
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*