Luis Gonzalez

P FCL Phillies

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKPHI	10	2	33	4.13	2.64	25.4%	6.7%	—	K 17.3% · BB 8.4% · FIP 3.95
2025	20	MIX2 levels	14	9	54	3.48	3.12	16.1%	7.2%	—	K 11.1% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.01
2026	21	ROKPHI	13	12	53	7.64	5.08	19.1%	7.8%	—	K 13.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 6.54
2027PROJ	22	MLBPHI	10	10	52	5.63	5.63	11.6%	11.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBPHI	5	5	27	5.37	5.29	14.4%	10.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBPHI	7	7	39	5.17	5.08	16.2%	10.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control50Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJeremiah Burke (age 21) · Billy Buckner (age 23) · Will Childers (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%11.6%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%0.6%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	51	212	30	5	2	100%	4.6	9.6%	2.9%	6.7%	1.1%	3.71	3.27	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	51	212	30	5	2	100%	4.6	14.2%	2.4%	11.8%	0.9%	3.71	2.73	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	9	50	196	38	9	0	82%	4.5	13.2%	5.7%	7.4%	0.0%	1.99	2.71	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	9	50	196	38	9	0	82%	4.5	19.4%	4.6%	14.8%	0.0%	1.99	2.11	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	10	2	33	134	34	9	2	20%	3.3	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.3%	4.13	3.95	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	10	2	33	134	34	9	2	20%	3.3	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.3%	4.13	3.95	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	10	2	33	134	34	9	2	20%	3.3	25.4%	6.7%	18.7%	1.5%	4.13	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	54	236	38	17	2	64%	3.9	11.1%	8.0%	3.1%	1.5%	3.48	4.01	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	54	236	38	17	2	64%	3.9	11.1%	8.0%	3.1%	1.5%	3.48	4.01	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	54	236	38	17	2	64%	3.9	16.1%	7.2%	8.9%	0.8%	3.48	3.12	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	13	12	53	256	49	20	11	92%	4.1	13.0%	9.8%	3.2%	6.0%	7.64	6.54	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	13	12	53	256	49	20	11	92%	4.1	13.0%	9.8%	3.2%	6.0%	7.64	6.54	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	13	12	53	256	49	20	11	92%	4.1	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	4.3%	7.64	5.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	PHI	10	10	52	220	25	24	7	100%	5.2	11.6%	11.0%	0.6%	3.2%	5.63	5.63	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	54	230	33	24	7	100%	5.5	14.4%	10.5%	3.9%	3.1%	5.37	5.29	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	56	236	38	24	7	100%	5.6	16.2%	10.2%	6.0%	3.1%	5.17	5.08	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	57	239	41	24	7	100%	5.7	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.03	4.96	-0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	57	239	42	24	7	100%	6.3	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.96	4.92	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	56	236	42	24	7	100%	6.2	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	4.95	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	27	114	16	12	4	100%	5.4	14.4%	10.5%	3.9%	3.1%	5.37	5.29	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	39	165	27	17	5	100%	5.6	16.2%	10.2%	6.0%	3.1%	5.17	5.08	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	46	194	33	19	6	100%	5.8	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.03	4.96	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	49	207	37	21	6	100%	6.1	17.6%	9.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.96	4.92	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	50	211	37	21	7	100%	6.2	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	3.1%	4.96	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	212	893	151	90	27	100%	5.9	16.9%	10.1%	6.8%	3.1%	5.07	4.63	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	143	85	26	100%	5.8	16.9%	10.1%	6.8%	3.1%	5.07	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		59	43	241	1034	129	73	24	73%	4.1	12.5%	7.0%	5.4%	2.4%	4.23	4.23	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	36	200	859	107	60	20	73%	4.1	12.5%	7.0%	5.4%	2.4%	4.23	4.23	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	11.6%	11.0%	3.2%	—	5.11	15.9%	5.7%	167	-0.52	—	—	—
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	87
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	87
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	86
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	84
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	83
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	83
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	83
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	83
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	82
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	82
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	82
Jurgen Jimenez R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	11.5%	13.3%	2.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	158	82
Aaron Cook R 2002 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	9.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.301	4.27	7.8%	0.7%	304	-0.56	3.65	1,406	82
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.5%	7.8%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	82
Yoan López R 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	12.6%	12.9%	2.1%	.290	4.00	22.8%	12.1%	154	-0.83	2.21	377	81
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	81
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	81
Dillon Drabble R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	21	SP-	4.60	11.2%	11.6%	1.8%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	110	81
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	55	15.8%	10.3%	1.19	5.18
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*