Edwin Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Edwin Gonzalez P DSL Astros Blue

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 153 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%22.7%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	5	2	12	54	12	5	0	40%	2.3	15.1%	11.6%	3.5%	0.0%	5.40	3.29	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	5	2	12	54	12	5	0	40%	2.3	22.2%	9.3%	13.0%	0.0%	5.40	2.33	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	12	2	23	109	22	17	0	17%	1.9	13.7%	19.5%	-5.8%	0.0%	7.15	4.41	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	12	2	23	109	22	17	0	17%	1.9	20.2%	15.6%	4.6%	0.0%	7.15	3.41	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	33	166	39	33	0	38%	2.6	16.0%	24.8%	-8.9%	0.0%	4.86	4.90	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	33	166	39	33	0	38%	2.6	16.0%	24.8%	-8.9%	0.0%	4.86	4.90	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	5	33	166	39	33	0	38%	2.6	23.5%	19.9%	3.6%	0.0%	4.86	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	19	0	20	84	19	13	3	0%	1.1	22.7%	14.9%	7.7%	3.0%	5.09	5.09	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	19	0	20	86	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.79	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	37	9	5	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	207	115	23	0%	1.1	23.3%	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		30	9	68	329	50	69	0	30%	2.3	15.1%	20.9%	-5.8%	0.0%	5.72	4.47	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	27	200	972	147	203	0	30%	2.3	15.1%	20.9%	-5.8%	0.0%	5.72	4.47	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Edwin Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	22.7%	14.9%	3.0%	—	4.79	23.3%	10.2%	20	-0.30	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	82
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	80
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	79
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	79
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	78
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	78
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	78
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	78
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	77
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	77
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	76
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	76
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	76
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	76
Heath Slatton R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SW	5.56	17.9%	12.9%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	120	76