Francis Peña

P San Antonio Missions

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	45	0	63	2.43	2.54	25.1%	7.1%	—	K 20.4% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.03
2025	24	AAASD	43	0	52	4.99	4.25	19.8%	14.3%	—	K 17.1% · BB 12.9% · FIP 4.33
2026	25	AASD	42	1	59	3.05	3.18	27.1%	13.7%	—	K 22.0% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.92
2027PROJ	26	MLBSD	67	0	70	4.99	4.99	20.5%	15.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSD	25	0	26	4.95	4.96	20.8%	14.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSD	38	0	40	4.96	5.00	20.8%	14.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff52Control43Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNolan Riggs (age 25) · Armando Rivero (age 27) · Carlos Fisher (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%20.5%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%5.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL3545

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	14	0	23	114	19	14	2	0%	1.6	11.3%	15.4%	-4.0%	2.5%	7.43	5.47	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	14	0	23	114	19	14	2	0%	1.6	16.7%	12.3%	4.4%	1.8%	7.43	4.40	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	35	151	40	10	1	0%	1.5	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	1.1%	2.34	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	35	151	40	10	1	0%	1.5	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	0.7%	2.34	2.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	63	255	64	18	3	0%	1.4	20.4%	7.4%	12.9%	1.3%	2.43	3.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	63	255	64	18	3	0%	1.4	20.4%	7.4%	12.9%	1.3%	2.43	3.03	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	63	255	64	18	3	0%	1.4	25.1%	7.1%	18.0%	1.2%	2.43	2.54	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	52	237	47	34	4	0%	1.2	17.1%	12.9%	4.1%	1.9%	4.99	4.33	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	52	237	47	34	4	0%	1.2	17.1%	12.9%	4.1%	1.9%	4.99	4.33	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	52	237	47	34	4	0%	1.2	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	1.7%	4.99	4.25	—
2026	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	1	59	262	71	36	3	2%	1.4	22.0%	15.1%	6.8%	1.4%	3.05	3.92	—
2026	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	1	59	262	71	36	3	2%	1.4	22.0%	15.1%	6.8%	1.4%	3.05	3.92	—
2026	25	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	42	1	59	262	71	36	3	2%	1.4	27.1%	13.7%	13.4%	1.1%	3.05	3.18	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SD	67	0	70	296	61	44	7	0%	1.0	20.5%	15.0%	5.5%	2.5%	4.99	4.99	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	61	42	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	2.6%	4.95	4.96	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	282	59	40	8	0%	1.0	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.7%	4.96	5.00	-0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	SD	61	0	64	270	56	38	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	14.2%	6.5%	2.9%	5.03	5.10	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	23	16	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	14.5%	6.3%	2.6%	4.95	4.96	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SD	38	0	40	169	35	24	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.7%	4.96	5.00	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SD	43	0	45	190	39	27	5	0%	1.0	20.7%	14.2%	6.5%	2.9%	5.03	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	97	67	13	0%	1.0	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.7%	4.99	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	121	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.3%	6.5%	2.7%	4.99	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		167	1	232	1019	191	118	16	1%	1.4	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.6%	3.65	3.84	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	1	200	878	164	102	14	1%	1.4	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	1.6%	3.65	3.84	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Peña (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	20.5%	15.0%	2.5%	—	5.02	20.8%	6.5%	200	+0.03	—	—	—
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	90
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	88
Eduard Santos R 2016 · 3.86 FIP	26	SU	3.86	22.2%	14.4%	1.5%	.248	2.04	31.1%	18.7%	16	-1.82	2.04	138	87
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	87
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	87
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	85
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Grant Sides R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	17.2%	13.2%	1.2%	.266	3.83	22.4%	10.5%	62	-0.13	3.31	159	84
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	84
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	84
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	84
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	83
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.7%	14.5%	1.02	4.98
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*