Angel Mata — OGILVIE

Angel MataC Clearwater Threshers

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 76 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†41

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .250 / .229

PA76

HR0

K%26

BB%7

BABIP260

ISO43

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	85	78	16	2	0	1	5	12	1	1	0	205	262	269	531	64	227	14	6	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	85	75	19	3	0	1	8	8	1	1	0	253	333	333	667	80	269	9	9	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	169	151	34	9	1	0	13	36	3	3	4	225	299	298	597	73	291	21	8	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	169	141	39	10	1	0	22	23	3	3	4	277	383	362	745	85	325	14	13	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	162	146	22	7	0	1	11	47	3	0	0	151	225	219	444	68	212	29	7	194	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	162	142	29	10	0	1	15	33	3	0	0	204	294	296	590	92	257	20	9	271	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	PHI	—	114	102	17	3	0	0	8	33	3	0	0	167	248	196	444	29	246	29	7	198	10	-12	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
YTD	21	A	PHI	—	114	100	19	3	0	0	10	23	3	0	0	190	283	220	503	30	247	20	9	241	43	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
ROS	21	A	PHI	0%	76	70	13	3	0	0	5	20	1	1	0	186	250	229	479	43	261	26	7	239	41	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	PHI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		263	—	—	230	34	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	PHI	—	114	103	17	3	0	0	8	33	3	0	0	165	248	194	442	29	243	29	7	198	10	-12	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.6
TOT	21	A	PHI	—	190	172	30	6	0	0	13	53	4	1	0	174	249	209	458	35	252	28	7	215	22	-17	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	PHI	34%	252	229	46	9	1	3	17	64	4	3	1	201	268	288	556	87	264	25	7	253	52	-14	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	PHI	48%	352	320	67	13	2	5	24	88	5	4	1	209	275	309	584	100	267	25	7	263	59	-16	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.0
2029	24	MLB	PHI	53%	421	382	81	16	2	7	30	104	6	4	1	212	280	319	599	107	269	25	7	269	64	-17	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.3
2030	25	MLB	PHI	55%	459	417	89	17	2	8	33	113	6	5	1	213	281	321	602	108	270	25	7	272	67	-17	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.5
2031	26	MLB	PHI	56%	481	437	93	18	2	9	34	118	7	5	2	213	280	325	605	112	270	25	7	273	67	-18	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.5
2027	22	MLB	PHI	34%	87	80	16	3	0	1	6	22	1	1	0	200	264	275	539	75	266	25	7	244	45	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	PHI	48%	171	155	32	6	1	2	12	43	2	2	1	206	272	297	569	90	269	25	7	254	53	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	PHI	53%	222	201	43	8	1	4	16	55	3	2	1	214	282	323	605	109	271	25	7	261	58	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	PHI	55%	251	228	49	10	1	4	18	62	3	3	1	215	281	320	601	105	272	25	7	264	60	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2031	26	MLB	PHI	56%	268	243	52	10	1	5	19	66	4	3	1	214	282	325	607	111	272	25	7	265	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	999	908	192	37	4	16	71	248	13	11	4	211	279	314	592	102	272	25	7	260	57	-48	+1	+0	+18	+28	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	125	24	3	10	46	161	8	7	3	212	278	313	591	102	272	25	7	260	57	-31	+0	+0	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	2457	2230	461	94	10	34	172	602	36	26	10	207	274	304	578	97	266	25	7	261	58	-117	+1	+0	+44	+70	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	122	25	3	9	46	159	10	7	3	207	276	305	581	98	266	24	7	261	58	-31	+0	+0	+12	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	85	75	19	3	0	1	8	8	1	1	0	253	333	333	667	80	269	9	9	304	91	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	18	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	169	141	39	10	1	0	22	23	3	3	4	277	383	362	745	85	325	14	13	339	118	+3	-1	—	—	+5	0.7
2025	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	162	142	29	10	0	1	15	33	3	0	0	204	294	296	590	92	257	20	9	271	65	-6	+0	—	—	+5	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,159	17	12	210	273	311	+21	+12	0.4	0.5
	/162	664	10	7	210	273	311	+11.9	+6.9	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Angel Mata (OGILVIE)	21	30	25	35	35	174/249/209	35	252	0	1	28%	7%	22	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Matt Kennelly 2010 · A	21	41	37→40	34→40	37	199/239/266	67	282	5	3	30%	5%	34	-2.8	214/264/299	85	281	7	3	25%	6%	54	-1.4	217/271/305	88	273	7	2	22%	6%	55	-0.6
✕Claudio Finol 2021 · A	21	42	37→40	43→45	40	200/246/273	72	266	4	5	26%	5%	39	-2.5	191/247/273	82	270	6	8	30%	6%	40	-2.4	172/238/248	76	248	7	10	32%	6%	29	-0.7
✕Victor Moscote 2014 · A	20	40	37→30	40→45	37	194/243/263	69	285	4	5	32%	5%	36	-2.7	209/262/265	56	278	2	5	24%	6%	44	-2.1	209/266/252	43	268	2	3	21%	6%	40	-0.8
✕Erick Castillo 2014 · A	21	41	37→30	39→30	45	194/250/267	73	232	4	4	18%	5%	40	-2.4	196/237/253	57	244	3	4	20%	4%	30	-3.1	192/250/234	43	239	4	0	20%	4%	29	-0.9
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	50	-1.8	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	53	-1.5	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Bill Pujols 2015 · A	21	43	37→40	43→50	46	204/263/281	76	253	4	7	20%	6%	49	-1.8	197/257/271	74	281	3	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	146/212/197	51	225	0	5	32%	6%	4	-0.9
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	44	178/253/238	60	259	4	7	31%	8%	35	-2.8	196/255/250	54	275	2	4	27%	7%	37	-2.6	188/244/231	44	262	1	2	27%	7%	26	-1.6
✕Branden Becker 2018 · A	21	41	35→40	40→30	41	196/240/250	53	255	2	4	23%	5%	30	-3.1	233/275/313	80	323	6	4	28%	5%	62	-0.9	248/286/321	73	344	7	1	29%	4%	64	-0.5
✕Carlos Gonzalez 2015 · A	21	42	35→30	38→40	41	197/251/253	57	274	2	4	28%	6%	37	-2.7	208/265/273	65	288	3	5	27%	7%	48	-1.9	191/254/222	31	265	0	2	26%	7%	26	-0.7
✕Antoni Lugo 2009 · A	21	40	36→45	42→45	42	190/245/251	61	237	4	5	22%	5%	33	-2.9	207/267/326	119	247	14	5	22%	6%	63	-0.8	200/264/341	141	224	19	3	21%	6%	63	-0.3
✕Brian Serven 2017 · A	22	39	37→45	39→30	40	187/227/257	70	241	4	4	24%	4%	27	-3.3	192/247/283	91	253	6	4	26%	5%	43	-2.2	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Cam Gallagher 2014 · A	21	39	38→45	42→30	47	185/242/260	75	213	5	3	16%	6%	35	-2.8	217/265/327	110	246	10	3	16%	6%	62	-0.9	223/283/334	112	275	10	0	22%	7%	70	-0.1
✕J.C. Rodriguez 2017 · A	21	41	38→40	39→45	46	196/265/287	91	249	4	5	22%	7%	53	-1.5	201/262/300	99	254	7	4	23%	7%	54	-1.4	176/242/264	89	214	7	0	21%	7%	34	-1.2
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	38	185/246/256	71	259	4	4	29%	5%	37	-2.7	220/285/305	85	299	6	6	27%	5%	65	-0.7	236/303/318	83	317	6	5	26%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2008 · A	21	40	37→45	43→45	38	196/244/265	69	264	5	4	27%	4%	37	-2.7	217/277/307	90	287	5	6	25%	6%	63	-0.9	222/289/325	103	288	5	5	23%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Sergio Burruel 2012 · A	21	42	35→30	42→30	47	198/274/259	61	274	3	4	27%	8%	50	-1.8	213/266/275	62	297	3	6	27%	6%	48	-1.9	241/305/316	75	293	8	1	20%	8%	73	-0.1