Carlos Meza — OGILVIE

Carlos Meza P FCL Blue Jays

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 17 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%22.4%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	4	30	132	18	10	2	36%	2.7	9.3%	9.5%	-0.2%	1.9%	5.40	4.55	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	4	30	132	18	10	2	36%	2.7	13.6%	7.6%	6.1%	1.5%	5.40	3.77	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	5	47	190	28	10	2	45%	4.2	10.0%	6.6%	3.4%	1.4%	3.28	3.83	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	5	47	190	28	10	2	45%	4.2	14.7%	5.3%	9.5%	1.1%	3.28	3.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	16	0	29	148	27	12	5	0%	1.8	12.4%	10.1%	2.3%	5.1%	9.62	6.14	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	16	0	29	148	27	12	5	0%	1.8	12.4%	10.1%	2.3%	5.1%	9.62	6.14	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	16	0	29	148	27	12	5	0%	1.8	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	3.4%	9.62	4.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TOR	16	0	17	72	16	7	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	9.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.29	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	4.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.91	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.35	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		38	9	106	470	50	40	13	24%	2.8	10.6%	8.5%	2.1%	2.7%	5.62	4.76	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	17	200	890	94	76	24	24%	2.8	10.6%	8.5%	2.1%	2.7%	5.62	4.76	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.4%	9.5%	3.0%	—	4.29	23.2%	14.2%	20	-0.16	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	87
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	85
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	83
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	82
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	81
Daniel Bies R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	22	SW	3.96	24.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.339	3.17	20.3%	11.0%	89	-0.79	3.17	115	81
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	81
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	81
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	80
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	79
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	79
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	79
Ian Koenig R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	22	SU	3.69	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.34	15.0%	7.6%	295	+1.65	3.69	314	78
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	78
Liam Simon R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SW	3.27	26.6%	11.9%	1.6%	.362	5.97	19.7%	-6.0%	84	+2.70	3.27	105	78
Franco Aleman R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SW	3.95	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	.391	2.98	28.9%	18.9%	114	-0.97	2.28	226	78
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	77
David Perez R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.19	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.19	4.00	151	77
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	77