Jorge Guerra — OGILVIE

Jorge Guerra P FCL Blue Jays

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%22.4%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	10	0	13	76	14	9	2	0%	1.3	12.5%	14.8%	-2.3%	3.3%	12.46	5.71	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	10	0	13	76	14	9	2	0%	1.3	18.4%	11.8%	6.6%	2.6%	12.46	5.02	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	14	0	24	105	17	7	2	0%	1.7	11.0%	8.3%	2.7%	2.5%	2.62	4.58	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	14	0	24	105	17	7	2	0%	1.7	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	1.9%	2.62	3.64	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	14	0	20	111	15	19	4	0%	1.4	9.2%	21.4%	-12.2%	5.5%	7.78	8.03	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	14	0	20	111	15	19	4	0%	1.4	9.2%	21.4%	-12.2%	5.5%	7.78	8.03	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	14	0	20	111	15	19	4	0%	1.4	13.5%	17.1%	-3.6%	3.6%	7.78	7.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	11	0	12	51	11	6	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.6%	9.8%	3.0%	4.84	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	19	10	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.23	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.68	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		38	0	57	292	31	44	11	0%	1.5	10.7%	15.0%	-4.3%	3.8%	6.67	6.18	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	0	200	1031	110	154	39	0%	1.5	10.7%	15.0%	-4.3%	3.8%	6.67	6.18	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Guerra (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	22.4%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.61	23.1%	11.7%	20	-0.23	—	—	—
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	90
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	86
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	86
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	85
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	85
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	85
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	85
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	85