Cristian Alvarado

P DSL Mariners

Age 24 RHP ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	ROKSEA	14	24	2.28	3.31	15.5%	3.1%	—	K 10.5% · BB 3.9% · FIP 4.29
2027PROJ	24	MLBSEA	13	14	4.17	4.17	19.8%	5.6%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSEA	9	9	4.14	4.11	20.7%	5.9%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJosh Advocate (age 24) · Preston Claiborne (age 25) · Danny Hrbek (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.17

K%19.8%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	0	24	97	15	3	2	0%	1.7	10.5%	3.9%	6.6%	2.9%	2.28	4.29	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	14	0	24	97	15	3	2	0%	1.7	10.5%	3.9%	6.6%	2.9%	2.28	4.29	—
2026	23	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	14	0	24	97	15	3	2	0%	1.7	15.5%	3.1%	12.4%	2.1%	2.28	3.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SEA	13	0	14	59	12	3	2	0%	1.1	19.8%	5.6%	14.2%	3.0%	4.17	4.17	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SEA	21	0	22	91	19	5	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.14	4.11	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	0	9	38	8	2	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.14	4.11	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	8	2	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.14	3.73	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	43	22	0%	1.1	20.7%	5.9%	14.8%	3.0%	4.14	3.73	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		14	0	24	97	10	4	3	0%	1.7	10.5%	3.9%	6.6%	2.9%	2.28	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	0	200	820	86	32	24	0%	1.7	10.5%	3.9%	6.6%	2.9%	2.28	4.29	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristian Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	19.8%	5.6%	3.0%	—	4.11	20.7%	14.8%	22	-0.06	—	—	—
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	86
Preston Claiborne R 2013 · 3.72 FIP	25	SU	3.72	19.6%	4.7%	3.1%	.284	3.51	20.5%	13.2%	66	-0.21	3.07	155	85
Danny Hrbek R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	21.3%	7.5%	3.1%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	100	84
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	84
Ocean Gabonia R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	23	SU	3.71	19.7%	6.8%	2.6%	.316	2.79	18.4%	8.6%	41	-0.92	2.79	144	84
Andres Avila R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	16.0%	5.2%	2.9%	.316	4.13	20.3%	13.9%	73	+0.15	3.98	177	84
Trey Cobb R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	18.3%	4.9%	4.1%	.317	6.93	13.4%	3.6%	40	+2.48	3.94	192	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.65	17.5%	6.2%	170	+0.77	3.88	203	83
Justin Courtney R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	19.0%	5.9%	4.3%	.364	6.21	17.3%	5.0%	68	+1.63	4.58	108	83
Austin Maddox R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	15.1%	5.1%	2.7%	.265	3.34	19.2%	9.1%	130	-0.59	3.25	156	83
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	83
Chad Qualls R 2004 · 3.46 FIP	25	SU	3.46	17.0%	5.0%	2.1%	.290	3.73	18.8%	12.6%	251	+0.27	2.51	807	83
Ryan Halstead R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	20.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.331	3.54	17.5%	11.0%	168	+0.42	3.12	222	83
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	83
Roberto Novoa R 2004 · 4.90 FIP	24	SU	4.90	16.0%	6.4%	4.3%	.304	4.56	18.4%	9.9%	121	-0.34	3.41	142	82
Carlos Frías R 2014 · 3.40 FIP	24	SU	3.40	21.2%	4.4%	2.8%	.296	4.37	13.6%	5.1%	173	+0.97	3.40	236	82
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	82
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	82
Dusty Isaacs R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	24	SU	3.24	21.2%	5.0%	2.4%	.283	4.36	22.2%	10.9%	148	+1.12	3.16	253	82
Ronnie Shaban R 2015 · 3.02 FIP	25	SU	3.02	18.6%	5.0%	1.6%	.268	4.32	14.1%	8.8%	55	+1.30	3.02	104	82