Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 198 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #613

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	23	15	86	2.09	2.32	25.2%	3.6%	—	K 19.3% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.07
2025	24	AAOAK	28	26	146	4.08	3.79	23.5%	5.7%	—	K 19.0% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.54
2026	25	MIX3 levels	20	17	85	6.38	6.12	16.4%	8.4%	—	K 14.2% · BB 7.9% · FIP 6.51
2027PROJ	26	MLBOAK	12	12	71	5.36	5.36	15.1%	6.0%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBOAK	9	9	55	5.28	5.29	15.8%	6.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBOAK	13	13	78	5.26	5.30	16.1%	6.5%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command60FB velo44

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCole De Vries (age 27) · Nick Payero (age 24) · Nestor Molina (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%15.1%

BB%6.0%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL—55

CMD5560

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	8	8	42	186	43	9	9	100%	5.2	17.1%	5.7%	11.4%	6.3%	4.71	5.82	—
2022	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	8	8	42	186	43	9	9	100%	5.2	23.1%	4.8%	18.3%	4.8%	4.71	4.48	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	15	86	333	84	12	5	65%	3.7	19.3%	4.1%	15.2%	2.0%	2.09	3.07	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	15	86	333	84	12	5	65%	3.7	19.3%	4.1%	15.2%	2.0%	2.09	3.07	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	15	86	333	84	12	5	65%	3.7	25.2%	3.6%	21.6%	1.5%	2.09	2.32	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	26	146	617	145	35	22	93%	5.2	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.1%	4.08	4.54	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	28	26	146	617	145	35	22	93%	5.2	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.1%	4.08	4.54	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	28	26	146	617	145	35	22	93%	5.2	23.5%	5.7%	17.8%	3.6%	4.08	3.79	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	17	85	383	63	32	22	85%	4.2	14.2%	7.9%	6.2%	6.6%	6.38	6.51	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	17	85	383	63	32	22	85%	4.2	14.2%	7.9%	6.2%	6.6%	6.38	6.51	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	17	85	383	63	32	22	85%	4.2	16.4%	8.4%	8.1%	5.7%	6.38	6.12	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	OAK	12	12	71	300	45	18	13	100%	5.9	15.1%	6.0%	9.1%	4.4%	5.36	5.36	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	OAK	22	22	129	545	86	34	23	100%	5.9	15.8%	6.2%	9.5%	4.3%	5.28	5.29	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	OAK	21	21	125	529	85	34	23	100%	6.0	16.1%	6.5%	9.6%	4.3%	5.26	5.30	-0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	OAK	20	20	120	505	82	34	22	100%	6.0	16.2%	6.8%	9.4%	4.4%	5.31	5.38	-0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	112	475	76	34	22	100%	5.9	16.0%	7.1%	8.9%	4.5%	5.43	5.52	-0.8
2028	27	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	55	232	37	14	10	100%	6.1	15.8%	6.2%	9.5%	4.3%	5.28	5.29	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	78	329	53	21	14	100%	6.0	16.1%	6.5%	9.6%	4.3%	5.26	5.30	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	87	367	59	25	16	100%	6.2	16.2%	6.8%	9.4%	4.4%	5.31	5.38	-0.5
2031	30	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	90	380	61	27	17	100%	6.0	16.0%	7.1%	8.9%	4.5%	5.43	5.52	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	310	1309	210	88	57	100%	6.0	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	4.4%	5.33	5.00	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	57	37	100%	6.0	16.0%	6.7%	9.3%	4.4%	5.33	5.00	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		79	66	358	1519	268	93	69	84%	4.5	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	4.5%	4.22	4.87	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	848	149	52	38	84%	4.5	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	4.5%	4.22	4.87	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	15.1%	6.0%	4.4%	—	5.32	16.0%	9.5%	374	-0.04	—	—	—
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	84
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	83
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	81
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	80
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	80
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	80
J.D. Martin R 2009 · 5.18 FIP	26	SP	5.18	10.9%	5.9%	4.1%	.263	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	48	-0.39	4.79	414	79
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	78
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.90	12.7%	5.3%	173	-0.43	4.40	412	78
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	78
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	78
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	77
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	77
Josh Hancock R 2004 · 6.37 FIP	26	SP-	6.37	12.3%	8.9%	5.8%	.262	4.15	14.7%	8.6%	104	-2.22	3.57	167	77
Ivan Pineyro R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP-	4.48	16.8%	6.2%	3.6%	.356	4.70	13.4%	5.2%	45	+0.22	3.53	422	77
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	76
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	75
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	112	15.9%	6.5%	1.69	5.32
Darrell May ('05)	3.3	132	14.3%	7.3%	1.68	5.16
Jose Acevedo ('05)	1.8	74	15.5%	6.9%	1.73	5.74
Art Decatur ('22-'27, 0 WAR*)	2.7	108	17.1%*	7.0%*	1.68*	4.68*
Hideki Irabu ('02)	2.6	103	18.1%	7.8%	1.59	5.15
Frank Gabler ('35-'38, -2 WAR*)	1.9	94	14.6%*	6.9%*	1.78*	5.55*
Clay Parker ('87-'92, 1 WAR*)	1.2	78	16.2%*	7.5%*	1.64*	4.76*