Adrian Rodriguez
SS Hillsboro Hops| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | ROKARI | 128 | .290/.397/.383 | 1 | 3 | 49 | — | .204/.286/.274 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 393 | .195/.304/.261 | 3 | 5 | 23 | — | .154/.242/.200 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+/AARI | 232 | .171/.286/.244 | 2 | 7 | 19 | — | .144/.232/.208 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBARI | 1 | .183/.261/.249 | 0 | 0 | 43 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBARI | 51 | .190/.268/.271 | 0 | 1 | 51 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBARI | 103 | .195/.273/.287 | 1 | 2 | 56 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | — | 45 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 311 | 308 | 619 | 103 | 320 | 31 | 13 | 285 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 39 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 114 | 184 | 114 | 298 | 200 | 38 | 5 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs Red | — | 173 | 143 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 259 | 369 | 273 | 642 | 14 | 339 | 22 | 12 | 300 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | INTL | Leones de Ponce | — | 40 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 103 | 54 | 157 | 91 | 38 | 2 | 81 | -59 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 128 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 290 | 397 | 383 | 780 | 93 | 375 | 22 | 12 | 353 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 217 | 143 | 360 | 250 | 39 | 4 | 180 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 277 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 86 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 206 | 321 | 274 | 595 | 69 | 286 | 26 | 12 | 279 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 41 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 143 | 211 | 229 | 439 | 86 | 160 | 22 | 5 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 151 | 130 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 185 | 264 | 262 | 525 | 77 | 212 | 19 | 9 | 234 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 81 | 63 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 143 | 325 | 206 | 531 | 63 | 214 | 26 | 15 | 267 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 45 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 122 | 200 | 171 | 371 | 49 | 260 | 44 | 9 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Red | — | 173 | 151 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 185 | 268 | 192 | 460 | 7 | 268 | 31 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 128 | 113 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 204 | 286 | 274 | 560 | 71 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 23 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 174 | 95 | 269 | 227 | 52 | 4 | 128 | -27 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 290 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 119 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 159 | 247 | 207 | 454 | 48 | 249 | 36 | 9 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 151 | 134 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 157 | 215 | 224 | 439 | 67 | 186 | 25 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 81 | 67 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 119 | 263 | 179 | 442 | 60 | 181 | 36 | 10 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 84 | 75 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 133 | 217 | 187 | 404 | 53 | 270 | 45 | 8 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 84 | 74 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 162 | 253 | 216 | 469 | 54 | 267 | 35 | 10 | 221 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 186 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 67 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 275 | 204 | 480 | 11 | 293 | 31 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 213 | 180 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 53 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 319 | 228 | 547 | 11 | 298 | 25 | 10 | 259 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 128 | 113 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 204 | 286 | 274 | 560 | 71 | 306 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 128 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 290 | 397 | 383 | 780 | 93 | 375 | 22 | 12 | 353 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 345 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 147 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 157 | 244 | 200 | 444 | 43 | 265 | 37 | 8 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 393 | 333 | 65 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 104 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 195 | 304 | 261 | 565 | 66 | 271 | 26 | 11 | 264 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 201 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 66 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 144 | 232 | 209 | 441 | 65 | 197 | 28 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 232 | 193 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 171 | 286 | 244 | 529 | 73 | 212 | 21 | 11 | 246 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 84 | 76 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 132 | 217 | 184 | 401 | 53 | 260 | 45 | 8 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 213 | 190 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 67 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 189 | 275 | 200 | 475 | 11 | 268 | 31 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 128 | 114 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 286 | 272 | 558 | 70 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 350 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 147 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 154 | 244 | 197 | 441 | 43 | 248 | 37 | 8 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 207 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 66 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 140 | 232 | 203 | 435 | 63 | 184 | 28 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 128 | 114 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 202 | 286 | 272 | 558 | 70 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 393 | 350 | 54 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 147 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 154 | 244 | 197 | 441 | 43 | 248 | 37 | 8 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 232 | 207 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 66 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 140 | 232 | 203 | 435 | 63 | 184 | 28 | 7 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | ARI | 0% | 342 | 306 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 101 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 177 | 256 | 238 | 494 | 61 | 254 | 30 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -23 | -0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | ARI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 261 | 249 | 510 | 67 | 263 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 43 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 30% | 168 | 150 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 185 | 263 | 261 | 524 | 76 | 258 | 29 | 8 | 243 | 51 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 44% | 233 | 208 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 268 | 277 | 545 | 87 | 260 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 30% | 51 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 268 | 271 | 539 | 81 | 266 | 29 | 8 | 249 | 51 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 44% | 103 | 92 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 273 | 287 | 560 | 92 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 257 | 56 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 154 | 138 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 188 | 268 | 261 | 529 | 72 | 269 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 35 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 582 | 109 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 190 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 187 | 268 | 258 | 526 | 70 | 268 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 35 | -35 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1586 | 1400 | 242 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 123 | 516 | 33 | 34 | 20 | 173 | 256 | 231 | 487 | 59 | 261 | 33 | 8 | 220 | 35 | -31 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 99 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 211 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 172 | 256 | 230 | 486 | 57 | 260 | 32 | 8 | 220 | 35 | -38 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 151 PAwOBA .235 → .196 (−39)K% 18.5% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.54% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 25.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 15.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.986 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 1.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .235 → .196; ISO .077 → .064; BABIP .212 → .186. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 81 PAwOBA .262 → .197 (−65)K% 25.9% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 10.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.17% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 4.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 12.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | 2.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .262 → .197; ISO .063 → .050; BABIP .214 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 329 PAwOBA .275 → .209 (−66)K% 26.1% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.14% | ÷0.983 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.46% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | — | 8.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 20.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.283 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.65% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .275 → .209; ISO .069 → .050; BABIP .286 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hillsboro Hops · 23 PAwOBA .176 → .128 (−48)K% 39.1% → 52.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.13% | ÷1.002 | ×1.350 | — | — | 52.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.044 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 2.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 3.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 22.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .176 → .128; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL D-backs · 128 PAwOBA .350 → .241 (−108)K% 21.9% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷0.965 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.72% | ÷1.069 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.91% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×0.985 | 25.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.031 | ×0.720 | ×0.973 | ×0.985 | 0.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.984 | ×0.720 | ×0.973 | ×0.985 | 2.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.875 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 1.11% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 97, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .350 → .241; ISO .093 → .066; BABIP .375 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Red · 173 PAwOBA .300 → .216 (−83)K% 22.0% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.97% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.14% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.033 | ×0.820 | ×1.005 | ×0.995 | 26.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.90% | ÷0.987 | ×0.720 | ×1.005 | ×0.995 | 1.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.005 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .300 → .216; ISO .014 → .010; BABIP .339 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL D-backs Black · 45 PAwOBA .279 → .182 (−97)K% 31.1% → 45.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.11% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.016 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 19.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.043 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 6.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.948 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 92, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .279 → .182; ISO .103 → .065; BABIP .320 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .