Jose Cabrera

P Reno Aces

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEFG #1014Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+ARI	11	11	66	2.32	3.02	23.8%	6.9%	—	K 18.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.07
2025	23	AAARI	26	26	135	4.92	4.00	19.8%	8.4%	—	K 16.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.24
2026	24	MIX3 levels	28	24	126	5.30	4.04	22.9%	7.3%	1.3	K 19.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.52
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	15	15	86	4.71	4.90	18.2%	8.4%	0.0
2028PROJ68% MLB	26	MLBARI	14	14	87	4.63	4.69	19.1%	8.3%	0.1
2029PROJ78% MLB	27	MLBARI	17	17	102	4.64	4.68	19.3%	8.3%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs20

Whiff%10

K%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsHiram Burgos (age 25) · Stephen Fife (age 25) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.71

FIP4.90

K%18.2%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CTRL5050

CMD4045

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1019.0%

p1015.5%

xwOBA vs

p200.347

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.60	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	74	314	63	18	10	100%	5.3	14.2%	6.9%	7.3%	4.4%	4.86	5.18	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	74	314	63	18	10	100%	5.3	20.1%	5.7%	14.3%	3.2%	4.86	3.88	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	14.4%	13.0%	1.3%	3.4%	5.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	107	501	96	56	13	100%	4.7	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	2.6%	5.28	4.45	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	2.32	4.07	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	2.32	4.07	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	11	11	66	260	62	18	5	100%	6.0	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	1.9%	2.32	3.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.92	4.24	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	16.0%	9.2%	6.8%	2.4%	4.92	4.24	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	26	135	596	118	50	16	100%	5.2	19.8%	8.4%	11.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.00	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	126	537	123	39	19	86%	4.5	19.8%	7.2%	12.6%	4.0%	5.30	4.52	+0.6
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	126	537	123	39	19	86%	4.5	19.8%	7.2%	12.6%	4.0%	5.30	4.52	+0.6
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	126	537	123	39	19	86%	4.5	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	3.5%	5.30	4.04	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	5	28	129	20	11	6	62%	3.5	15.5%	8.5%	7.0%	4.7%	5.72	5.61	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	15	15	86	363	66	31	13	100%	5.7	18.2%	8.4%	9.8%	3.4%	4.71	4.90	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	129	544	104	45	19	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.79	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	131	553	107	46	19	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	3.4%	4.74	4.78	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	22	22	131	553	107	47	19	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	3.5%	4.79	4.84	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	21	21	125	528	99	46	19	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.6%	4.90	4.99	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	20	20	118	496	90	45	19	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.8%	5.08	5.19	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	14	14	87	367	70	31	12	100%	6.2	19.1%	8.3%	10.8%	3.2%	4.63	4.69	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	17	17	102	431	83	36	14	100%	6.0	19.3%	8.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.68	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	111	469	91	40	16	100%	6.2	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.73	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	110	464	87	40	16	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.4%	4.79	4.88	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	18	18	106	448	81	40	16	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.0%	9.1%	3.6%	4.96	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	91	544	2305	432	197	79	97%	5.8	18.7%	8.6%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.49	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	848	159	72	29	97%	5.8	18.7%	8.6%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.49	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		103	99	510	2216	368	202	74	96%	5.0	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.68	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	39	200	868	144	79	29	96%	5.0	16.6%	9.1%	7.5%	3.3%	4.74	4.68	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Cabrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	18.2%	8.4%	3.4%	—	4.80	19.3%	10.9%	391	-0.10	—	—	—
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	83
Stephen Fife R 2012 · 3.87 FIP	25	SP	3.87	17.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.284	3.94	17.4%	10.4%	58	+0.07	3.11	264	82
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	80
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	80
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	80
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	79
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	79
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	79
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	78
Drew McDaniel R 2024 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.4%	8.4%	3.1%	.307	5.65	18.3%	7.2%	91	+1.41	4.24	230	78
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	78
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	78
Brian Stokes R 2006 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	13.6%	8.2%	1.8%	.345	4.51	14.3%	6.3%	166	+0.53	3.96	207	77
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	76
Mike MacDougal R 2001 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	10.4%	6.0%	3.0%	.296	3.79	20.5%	8.7%	75	-0.82	2.68	379	75
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	75
Connor Seabold R 2021 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP	3.72	20.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.247	4.04	19.3%	13.2%	224	+0.32	3.13	542	75
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	75
Rodrigo Lopez R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP	5.56	14.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.412	4.29	16.2%	9.7%	344	-1.27	4.06	1,344	74
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	107	18.7%	8.5%	1.39	4.86
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*
Chris Tillman ('18)	5.7	114	17.3%	8.9%	1.29	4.57
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56