Esmith Pineda — OGILVIE

Esmith PinedaOF Dayton Dragons

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 196 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION174 act + 146 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .255 / .260

PA146

HR2

K%32

BB%8

BABIP253

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	57	52	14	1	0	3	4	13	1	2	1	269	333	462	795	192	306	23	7	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	57	49	18	2	0	3	7	9	1	2	1	367	456	592	1.048	224	405	16	12	460	210	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	197	176	34	9	1	1	14	56	1	5	2	193	257	273	529	80	264	28	7	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	197	165	45	14	2	1	25	41	1	5	2	273	372	400	772	127	341	21	13	339	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	427	379	63	17	0	6	41	167	4	9	1	166	255	259	513	92	273	39	10	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	427	367	78	22	0	9	53	115	4	9	1	213	318	346	664	134	280	27	12	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	441	384	79	16	1	5	32	133	13	3	2	206	289	292	581	86	290	30	7	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	441	377	96	22	1	7	39	95	13	3	2	255	345	374	719	119	313	22	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	CIN	—	174	156	28	5	0	2	13	58	4	0	1	179	260	250	510	71	268	33	7	223	29	-14	-0	+0	-1	+5	-1.1
YTD	21	A+	CIN	—	174	150	34	6	0	2	19	43	4	0	1	227	329	307	636	80	302	25	11	297	85	-3	-0	+0	-1	+5	0.1
ROS	21	A+	CIN	0%	146	131	23	5	0	2	11	47	3	1	1	176	255	260	515	84	244	32	8	232	36	-11	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.8
ROS	21	MLB	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						246	0	0	220	26	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	A+	CIN	—	175	157	28	5	0	2	13	58	4	0	1	178	259	248	507	70	265	33	7	223	29	-14	-0	+0	-1	+5	-1.1
TOT	21	A+	CIN	—	320	287	51	10	0	4	24	105	7	1	2	178	258	254	512	77	261	33	8	227	32	-25	-1	+0	-2	+9	-1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	CIN	35%	510	455	83	16	1	9	41	156	9	3	2	182	263	281	545	99	250	31	8	248	48	-30	-0	+0	-3	+14	-1.9
2028	23	MLB	CIN	49%	556	496	94	19	1	11	46	164	9	3	2	190	270	298	569	109	254	29	8	260	57	-27	-0	+0	-3	+16	-1.5
2029	24	MLB	CIN	53%	585	521	102	20	1	13	49	169	10	4	2	196	278	313	590	117	257	29	8	267	63	-25	+0	+0	-4	+17	-1.2
2030	25	MLB	CIN	55%	602	536	106	21	1	14	51	172	10	4	2	198	280	319	599	121	258	29	8	271	66	-23	+0	+0	-4	+17	-1.0
2031	26	MLB	CIN	59%	610	543	107	21	1	14	52	174	10	4	2	197	279	317	596	120	258	29	9	272	66	-23	+0	+0	-4	+17	-1.0
2027	22	MLB	CIN	35%	176	157	29	6	0	3	14	54	3	1	1	185	264	280	545	96	252	31	8	238	40	-12	-0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
2028	23	MLB	CIN	49%	270	241	47	9	1	6	22	80	5	2	1	195	276	315	591	120	257	30	8	250	50	-15	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.0
2029	24	MLB	CIN	53%	309	275	55	11	1	7	26	89	5	2	1	200	281	324	605	124	260	29	8	258	55	-16	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.9
2030	25	MLB	CIN	55%	330	294	60	12	1	8	28	94	5	2	1	204	284	333	618	129	261	28	8	262	58	-15	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.8
2031	26	MLB	CIN	59%	362	322	65	13	1	9	31	103	6	2	1	202	284	332	616	130	261	28	9	263	59	-17	+0	+0	-2	+10	-0.9
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1448	1290	256	51	4	33	121	420	24	9	5	198	279	321	600	122	264	29	8	256	54	-75	-0	+0	-9	+41	-4.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	115	23	2	15	54	189	11	4	2	199	280	323	602	124	264	29	8	256	54	-34	+0	+0	-4	+18	-2.0
Career	—			—	4131	3673	705	145	7	78	341	1251	70	38	17	192	273	299	572	107	264	30	8	259	57	-203	+1	+0	-25	+117	-11.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	111	23	1	12	54	197	11	6	3	192	274	298	571	106	265	30	8	259	57	-32	+0	+0	-4	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	57	49	18	2	0	3	7	9	1	2	1	367	456	592	1.048	224	405	16	12	460	210	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2023	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	197	165	45	14	2	1	25	41	1	5	2	273	372	400	772	127	341	21	13	339	118	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.0
2024	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	427	367	78	22	0	9	53	115	4	9	1	213	318	346	664	134	280	27	12	303	90	-5	+1	—	—	+12	0.9
2025	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	27	25	5	1	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	200	259	240	499	40	294	30	4	235	38	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	414	352	91	21	1	7	38	87	12	3	2	259	351	384	734	125	315	21	9	325	107	+3	-0	—	—	+12	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,448	31	9	194	272	309	-9	+0	-3.2	-1.6
	/162	664	14	4	194	272	309	-4.0	+0.0	-1.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Esmith Pineda (OGILVIE)	21	40	35	40	35	178/258/254	77	261	4	1	33%	8%	32	-1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Randy César 2016 · A	21	40→50	38→40	40	40	194/245/270	76	274	6	2	31%	6%	39	-2.5	210/251/294	84	320	8	3	35%	5%	46	-2.0	227/271/317	90	337	9	2	34%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Ariel Baez 2012 · A	21	39	41→40	43→45	43	194/265/291	97	265	8	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	199/257/281	82	285	5	6	30%	6%	46	-2.0	173/227/238	65	246	2	6	29%	5%	20	-1.1
✕Juan Montes 2016 · A	21	39	39→30	43→55	43	190/267/276	86	260	7	5	28%	7%	51	-1.7	195/275/265	70	254	5	16	24%	6%	52	-1.6	185/271/239	53	243	4	21	23%	5%	42	-0.7
✕Claudio Finol 2021 · A	21	42	37→40	43→45	40	200/246/273	72	266	4	5	26%	5%	39	-2.5	191/247/273	82	270	6	8	30%	6%	40	-2.4	172/238/248	76	248	7	10	32%	6%	29	-0.7
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Joey Armstrong 2016 · A	22	39	37→40	44→45	44	189/248/258	70	262	5	5	29%	7%	37	-2.6	210/276/290	80	306	5	7	30%	7%	57	-1.2	212/285/293	81	313	4	8	31%	7%	58	-0.5
✕Rigoberto Rangel 2010 · A	21	41	39→45	43→40	44	199/268/288	89	262	5	4	25%	6%	54	-1.4	191/252/259	68	287	4	8	32%	6%	39	-2.5	160/219/196	36	254	2	10	35%	6%	6	-1.0
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	38→44	42→50	45	39	189/240/301	111	260	9	5	30%	5%	45	-2.1	211/260/341	130	280	14	6	29%	6%	64	-0.8	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Carlos Quintana 2008 · A	21	43	37→40	40	42	202/268/276	74	291	4	5	30%	7%	50	-1.7	217/272/287	70	305	3	8	28%	6%	54	-1.4	224/258/258	33	326	0	17	30%	3%	37	-0.6
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2008 · A	21	40	37→45	43→45	38	196/244/265	69	264	5	4	27%	4%	37	-2.7	217/277/307	90	287	5	6	25%	6%	63	-0.9	222/289/325	103	288	5	5	23%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2017 · A	21	32	38→40	38→45	37	162/223/241	78	240	6	4	34%	6%	23	-3.6	184/278/257	73	287	5	6	34%	10%	51	-1.7	159/289/213	54	249	4	5	32%	12%	43	-0.9
✕Richard Nunez 2016 · A	21	41	36→30	45→55	43	193/260/262	69	278	3	7	30%	7%	43	-2.2	196/273/264	68	268	3	11	26%	9%	50	-1.8	200/288/269	69	247	5	16	19%	10%	56	-0.3
✕Reginald Lampe 2011 · A	21	43	38→45	39→55	43	203/263/286	83	274	5	6	26%	6%	50	-1.7	204/266/299	95	266	8	10	25%	7%	56	-1.3	188/253/281	93	240	8	12	24%	7%	43	-0.8
✕Jose Ramirez 2010 · A	21	39	38→40	46→50	43	188/249/265	77	248	5	10	25%	6%	40	-2.4	211/278/295	84	273	7	11	24%	7%	60	-1.0	214/288/286	72	266	9	15	22%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Jesus Rojas 2007 · A	21	43	39→40	42→45	46	209/277/287	79	272	7	6	25%	8%	57	-1.2	231/291/326	95	301	8	5	24%	8%	72	-0.2	257/314/357	100	322	9	1	22%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Rainer Nunez 2021 · A	20	37→47	38→45	39→30	41	183/233/262	79	235	6	4	25%	5%	31	-3.0	224/269/356	132	293	16	2	28%	5%	72	-0.2	224/262/355	131	297	17	0	30%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Duanel Jones 2014 · A	21	38→41	39→45	39→40	39	187/236/267	80	266	7	3	31%	6%	34	-2.8	205/248/317	112	281	13	4	31%	5%	53	-1.5	204/245/324	120	272	16	3	31%	5%	51	-1.3
✕Maurizo Buda 2012 · A	20	40	37→40	38→40	42	189/263/261	72	271	5	4	30%	7%	45	-2.1	205/282/282	77	293	5	4	29%	8%	58	-1.2	192/282/254	62	276	4	1	29%	9%	51	-0.7