William Bergolla Jr.
2B Charlotte Knights| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A+CWS | 357 | .300/.365/.381 | 1 | 27 | 81 | — | .280/.325/.352 |
| 2025 | 20 | AACWS | 551 | .286/.343/.333 | 0 | 40 | 88 | — | .308/.348/.356 |
| 2026 | 21 | AAACWS | 43 | .457/.500/.571 | 0 | 2 | 183 | — | .447/.500/.553 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 22 | MLBCWS | 21 | .267/.310/.323 | 0 | 1 | 79 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ38% MLB | 23 | MLBCWS | 130 | .271/.316/.347 | 1 | 6 | 87 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 24 | MLBCWS | 234 | .274/.321/.364 | 3 | 10 | 93 | 0.5 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 83 | 71 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 380 | 470 | 423 | 892 | 42 | 397 | 4 | 13 | 409 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 228 | 192 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 255 | 356 | 286 | 642 | 31 | 275 | 7 | 13 | 296 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 357 | 310 | 93 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 38 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 300 | 365 | 381 | 746 | 81 | 332 | 11 | 8 | 325 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 551 | 486 | 139 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 26 | 5 | 40 | 11 | 286 | 343 | 333 | 676 | 47 | 301 | 5 | 7 | 297 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 43 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 457 | 500 | 571 | 1.071 | 114 | 516 | 9 | 12 | 453 | 183 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 83 | 75 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 267 | 337 | 293 | 631 | 27 | 281 | 5 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 228 | 201 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 244 | 315 | 274 | 589 | 30 | 260 | 10 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 357 | 321 | 90 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 325 | 352 | 677 | 72 | 305 | 15 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 551 | 497 | 153 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 31 | 5 | 40 | 11 | 308 | 348 | 356 | 705 | 48 | 310 | 6 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 43 | 38 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 447 | 500 | 553 | 1.053 | 105 | 490 | 12 | 9 | 438 | 183 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 83 | 75 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 267 | 337 | 293 | 631 | 27 | 282 | 5 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 83 | 71 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 380 | 470 | 423 | 892 | 42 | 397 | 4 | 13 | 409 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 228 | 201 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 244 | 315 | 274 | 589 | 30 | 271 | 10 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 228 | 192 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 255 | 356 | 286 | 642 | 31 | 275 | 7 | 13 | 296 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 357 | 321 | 90 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 325 | 352 | 677 | 72 | 325 | 15 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ RAW | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 357 | 310 | 93 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 29 | 38 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 300 | 365 | 381 | 746 | 81 | 332 | 11 | 8 | 325 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 551 | 497 | 153 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 31 | 5 | 40 | 11 | 308 | 348 | 356 | 705 | 48 | 327 | 6 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 551 | 486 | 139 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 26 | 5 | 40 | 11 | 286 | 343 | 333 | 676 | 47 | 301 | 5 | 7 | 297 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 43 | 38 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 447 | 500 | 553 | 1.053 | 105 | 515 | 12 | 9 | 438 | 183 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 43 | 35 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 457 | 500 | 571 | 1.071 | 114 | 516 | 9 | 12 | 453 | 183 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 83 | 75 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 267 | 337 | 293 | 631 | 27 | 281 | 5 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 228 | 205 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 239 | 315 | 268 | 584 | 29 | 260 | 10 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 357 | 333 | 90 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 325 | 339 | 664 | 69 | 305 | 15 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 551 | 515 | 153 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 31 | 5 | 40 | 11 | 297 | 348 | 344 | 692 | 47 | 310 | 6 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 43 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 436 | 500 | 538 | 1.038 | 103 | 490 | 12 | 9 | 438 | 183 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 357 | 333 | 90 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 325 | 339 | 664 | 69 | 305 | 15 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 551 | 515 | 153 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 31 | 5 | 40 | 11 | 297 | 348 | 344 | 692 | 47 | 310 | 6 | 5 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 43 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 436 | 500 | 538 | 1.038 | 103 | 490 | 12 | 9 | 438 | 183 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | CWS | 10% | 468 | 437 | 116 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 40 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 266 | 310 | 322 | 631 | 55 | 290 | 9 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -12 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +10 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | CWS | 10% | 21 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 310 | 323 | 633 | 56 | 290 | 10 | 5 | 286 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | CWS | 38% | 338 | 314 | 85 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 30 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 271 | 316 | 345 | 661 | 75 | 291 | 9 | 5 | 298 | 87 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | CWS | 48% | 486 | 452 | 123 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 45 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 274 | 320 | 363 | 683 | 89 | 292 | 9 | 6 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | CWS | 53% | 496 | 460 | 126 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 49 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 274 | 323 | 373 | 696 | 98 | 292 | 10 | 6 | 311 | 97 | -2 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | CWS | 55% | 499 | 462 | 126 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 52 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 274 | 323 | 378 | 702 | 104 | 292 | 10 | 6 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | CWS | 54% | 495 | 458 | 124 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 55 | 4 | 21 | 7 | 271 | 322 | 377 | 699 | 106 | 292 | 11 | 6 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | CWS | 54% | 488 | 451 | 122 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 30 | 56 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 270 | 320 | 372 | 693 | 103 | 291 | 11 | 6 | 310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +11 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | CWS | 53% | 479 | 443 | 118 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 56 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 267 | 318 | 366 | 684 | 99 | 290 | 12 | 6 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | CWS | 52% | 468 | 434 | 114 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 56 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 264 | 314 | 358 | 672 | 94 | 289 | 12 | 6 | 302 | 90 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | CWS | 52% | 399 | 369 | 96 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 49 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 260 | 309 | 349 | 658 | 89 | 286 | 12 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | CWS | 52% | 377 | 350 | 89 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 255 | 303 | 336 | 639 | 82 | 283 | 13 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | CWS | 38% | 130 | 121 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 271 | 316 | 347 | 663 | 75 | 291 | 8 | 5 | 298 | 87 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | CWS | 48% | 234 | 217 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 274 | 321 | 364 | 685 | 90 | 292 | 9 | 6 | 307 | 93 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | CWS | 53% | 261 | 242 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 275 | 323 | 375 | 698 | 100 | 293 | 10 | 6 | 312 | 97 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | CWS | 55% | 273 | 253 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 274 | 324 | 380 | 704 | 106 | 293 | 11 | 6 | 315 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | CWS | 54% | 270 | 249 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 30 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 272 | 323 | 379 | 702 | 107 | 292 | 11 | 6 | 314 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | CWS | 54% | 265 | 245 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 30 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 270 | 321 | 374 | 695 | 104 | 292 | 11 | 6 | 311 | 96 | -1 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | CWS | 53% | 255 | 236 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 268 | 318 | 368 | 686 | 100 | 291 | 12 | 6 | 307 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | CWS | 52% | 245 | 226 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 265 | 315 | 360 | 675 | 95 | 289 | 12 | 6 | 303 | 90 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | CWS | 52% | 208 | 193 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 261 | 310 | 350 | 660 | 90 | 287 | 12 | 6 | 296 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | CWS | 52% | 195 | 181 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 255 | 303 | 338 | 641 | 83 | 283 | 13 | 6 | 289 | 81 | -4 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2336 | 2163 | 581 | 94 | 10 | 32 | 137 | 258 | 17 | 81 | 28 | 269 | 317 | 366 | 683 | 97 | 292 | 11 | 6 | 306 | 91 | -20 | +5 | -5 | +8 | +51 | 3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 162 | 26 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 72 | 5 | 23 | 8 | 269 | 318 | 367 | 685 | 98 | 292 | 11 | 6 | 306 | 91 | -6 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5997 | 5520 | 1504 | 226 | 27 | 61 | 354 | 629 | 46 | 240 | 84 | 272 | 322 | 356 | 678 | 84 | 297 | 10 | 6 | 302 | 91 | -45 | +11 | -10 | +17 | +103 | 7.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 163 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 68 | 5 | 26 | 9 | 273 | 321 | 358 | 679 | 85 | 297 | 10 | 6 | 302 | 91 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 43 PAwOBA .442 → .438 (−3)K% 9.3% → 11.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 37.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 11.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .442 → .438; ISO .114 → .111; BABIP .516 → .490. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABirmingham Barons · 551 PAwOBA .291 → .299 (+8)K% 4.7% → 5.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.72% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 5.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.72% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.65% | ÷0.954 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 26.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.13% | ÷0.984 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 4.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 91, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .291 → .299; ISO .047 → .049; BABIP .301 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 357 PAwOBA .322 → .288 (−34)K% 10.6% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.64% | ÷0.952 | ×1.310 | — | — | 14.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.12% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.57% | ÷0.972 | ×0.870 | ×1.008 | ×1.042 | 25.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.41% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×1.008 | ×1.042 | 3.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.84% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×1.008 | ×1.042 | 1.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.817 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.41% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .322 → .288; ISO .081 → .075; BABIP .332 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AClearwater Threshers · 228 PAwOBA .291 → .266 (−26)K% 7.5% → 9.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.46% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 9.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.72% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.71% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×0.956 | ×1.045 | 24.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.956 | ×1.045 | 0.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×0.956 | ×1.045 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 100, 3B 111, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.
Result: wOBA .291 → .266; ISO .031 → .028; BABIP .275 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Phillies White · 83 PAwOBA .396 → .288 (−108)K% 3.6% → 4.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 3.61% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 4.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.29% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 25.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.41% | ÷1.018 | ×0.600 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 2.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.090 | ×0.600 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.849 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 98, 2B 104, 3B 118, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .396 → .288; ISO .042 → .027; BABIP .397 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).