Adrian Ogando — OGILVIE

Adrian Ogando P FCL Nationals

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%22.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	5	0	7	36	8	3	1	0%	1.3	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	2.8%	10.80	3.80	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	5	0	7	36	8	3	1	0%	1.3	22.2%	8.3%	13.9%	2.8%	10.80	4.00	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	10	2	35	132	33	13	0	20%	3.5	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	0.0%	1.30	3.22	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	10	2	35	132	33	13	0	20%	3.5	25.0%	9.8%	15.2%	0.0%	1.30	2.32	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	2	2	5	34	5	5	1	100%	2.7	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	2.9%	10.12	5.34	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	2	2	5	34	5	5	1	100%	2.7	14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	2.9%	10.12	6.47	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	0	24	108	15	11	2	0%	1.7	9.4%	12.7%	-3.3%	2.7%	7.61	5.37	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	0	24	108	15	11	2	0%	1.7	9.4%	12.7%	-3.3%	2.7%	7.61	5.37	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	14	0	24	108	15	11	2	0%	1.7	13.9%	10.2%	3.7%	1.9%	7.61	4.33	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	13	0	14	59	13	6	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.2%	12.3%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.37	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	3.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		31	4	70	310	46	38	5	13%	2.3	14.7%	12.3%	2.5%	1.6%	4.99	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	11	200	882	130	108	14	13%	2.3	14.7%	12.3%	2.5%	1.6%	4.99	4.27	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Ogando (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	22.5%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.37	23.1%	13.5%	20	-0.15	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	87
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	85
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	84
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	83
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	83
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	82
Trent Fennell R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	23	SW	4.08	20.6%	12.2%	2.1%	.328	5.52	19.4%	3.5%	107	+1.44	4.08	163	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	82
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	81
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	81
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	81
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	81
Yunior Montero R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	23	SW	3.65	21.9%	11.9%	1.6%	.239	5.21	21.3%	3.7%	54	+1.56	3.65	127	81
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	81