Isaiah Lowe

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #641

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	24	20	105	3.33	2.80	24.8%	10.3%	—	K 18.5% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.73
2025	22	A+SD	22	22	92	5.69	4.38	16.2%	11.8%	—	K 12.4% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.11
2026	23	MIX2 levels	35	6	73	7.03	6.39	19.0%	14.5%	—	K 14.5% · BB 16.8% · FIP 7.34
2027PROJ	24	MLBSD	21	21	125	6.08	6.08	14.3%	15.2%	-1.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBSD	9	9	55	5.74	5.64	16.5%	13.4%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBSD	14	14	84	5.52	5.45	17.9%	12.9%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -2.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJorge Sosa (age 25) · Cobi Johnson (age 23) · Tyler Brashears (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149140vR 132

ERA6.08

FIP6.08

K%14.3%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%-0.9%

Proj IP125

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD3545

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	12	54	18	5	1	100%	3.1	33.3%	9.3%	24.1%	1.9%	2.19	2.47	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	12	54	18	5	1	100%	3.1	33.3%	9.3%	24.1%	1.9%	2.19	2.45	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	448	111	46	4	83%	4.4	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	1.2%	3.33	3.73	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	105	448	111	46	4	83%	4.4	18.5%	12.0%	6.5%	1.2%	3.33	3.73	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	105	448	111	46	4	83%	4.4	24.8%	10.3%	14.5%	0.9%	3.33	2.80	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	92	433	70	51	8	100%	4.2	12.4%	13.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.69	5.11	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	92	433	70	51	8	100%	4.2	12.4%	13.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.69	5.11	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	22	92	433	70	51	8	100%	4.2	16.2%	11.8%	4.4%	1.8%	5.69	4.38	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	73	352	67	51	17	17%	2.1	14.5%	16.8%	-2.2%	6.1%	7.03	7.34	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	73	352	67	51	17	17%	2.1	14.5%	16.8%	-2.2%	6.1%	7.03	7.34	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	6	73	352	67	51	17	17%	2.1	19.0%	14.5%	4.5%	4.8%	7.03	6.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	SD	21	21	125	528	76	80	18	100%	6.0	14.3%	15.2%	-0.9%	3.4%	6.08	6.08	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	127	536	89	72	18	100%	6.0	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	3.4%	5.74	5.64	-1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	127	536	96	69	18	100%	6.0	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.4%	5.52	5.45	-0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	SD	21	21	125	528	95	67	18	100%	6.0	18.1%	12.7%	5.3%	3.4%	5.44	5.42	-0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	121	512	92	65	18	100%	6.1	18.0%	12.7%	5.3%	3.5%	5.45	5.48	-0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	116	489	87	63	18	100%	6.1	17.8%	13.0%	4.8%	3.6%	5.55	5.61	-0.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	109	459	80	61	18	100%	6.0	17.4%	13.3%	4.2%	3.8%	5.69	5.79	-1.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	55	232	38	31	8	100%	6.1	16.5%	13.4%	3.1%	3.4%	5.74	5.64	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	84	355	63	46	12	100%	6.0	17.9%	12.9%	5.0%	3.4%	5.52	5.45	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	97	410	74	52	14	100%	6.1	18.1%	12.7%	5.3%	3.4%	5.44	5.42	-0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	102	431	78	55	15	100%	6.0	18.0%	12.7%	5.3%	3.5%	5.45	5.48	-0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	101	426	76	55	15	100%	5.9	17.8%	13.0%	4.8%	3.6%	5.55	5.61	-0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	98	414	72	55	16	100%	6.1	17.4%	13.3%	4.2%	3.8%	5.69	5.79	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	537	2265	401	294	80	100%	6.0	17.7%	13.0%	4.7%	3.5%	5.55	5.18	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	110	30	100%	6.0	17.7%	13.0%	4.7%	3.5%	5.55	5.18	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		85	52	282	1287	206	176	39	61%	3.3	16.0%	13.7%	2.3%	3.0%	5.00	5.13	-5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	37	200	912	146	125	27	61%	3.3	16.0%	13.7%	2.3%	3.0%	5.00	5.13	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaiah Lowe (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.08	14.3%	15.2%	3.4%	—	5.50	17.5%	4.5%	379	-0.58	—	—	—
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	80
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	80
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	78
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	76
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	76
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	76
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	75
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	75
Felipe Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.47 FIP	24	SP-	5.47	14.7%	10.6%	4.1%	.330	4.12	19.9%	10.4%	139	-1.35	3.27	339	74
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	74
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	74
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	73
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	73
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	73
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	73
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	72
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	121	17.1%	13.3%	1.35	5.64
Gene Dale ('11-'16, -1 WAR*)	2.2	148	17.7%*	12.6%*	1.45*	5.30*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Tyler Green ('98)	1.9	128	15.4%	11.8%	1.10	5.16
Jeff Robinson ('87-'92, 0 WAR*)	3.5	118	18.3%*	10.9%*	1.38*	5.14*
Don Black ('43-'48, 0 WAR*)	4.0	133	17.4%*	10.4%*	1.28*	5.32*
Jimmy Haynes ('04)	6.0	133	14.1%	11.1%	1.11	5.37