Jonathan Clark

P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	25	MIX2 levels	41	56	1.93	2.80	30.5%	12.6%	—	K 22.9% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.08
2026	26	MIX2 levels	50	59	4.10	3.84	26.8%	11.9%	—	K 20.7% · BB 14.6% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	57	60	5.12	5.12	21.4%	14.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCWS	21	22	5.09	5.12	21.5%	14.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCWS	30	31	5.13	5.19	21.4%	14.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsArmando Rivero (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Dennis Sarfate (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%21.4%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	56	239	73	30	3	0%	1.4	22.9%	14.7%	8.2%	1.9%	1.93	4.08	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	56	239	73	30	3	0%	1.4	22.9%	14.7%	8.2%	1.9%	1.93	4.08	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	56	239	73	30	3	0%	1.4	30.5%	12.6%	18.0%	1.3%	1.93	2.80	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	59	261	70	31	7	0%	1.2	20.7%	14.6%	6.1%	2.7%	4.10	4.70	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	59	261	70	31	7	0%	1.2	20.7%	14.6%	6.1%	2.7%	4.10	4.70	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	59	261	70	31	7	0%	1.2	26.8%	11.9%	14.9%	2.7%	4.10	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	57	0	60	253	54	37	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	14.8%	6.6%	2.9%	5.12	5.12	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	55	0	58	244	52	35	7	0%	1.0	21.5%	14.4%	7.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.12	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	52	0	55	233	50	33	7	0%	1.1	21.4%	14.2%	7.2%	3.1%	5.13	5.19	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	21	0	22	93	20	13	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	14.4%	7.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.12	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	30	0	31	131	28	19	4	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.2%	7.2%	3.1%	5.13	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	47	32	7	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.3%	7.2%	3.1%	5.11	4.79	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	122	27	0%	1.1	21.4%	14.3%	7.2%	3.1%	5.11	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		91	0	115	500	109	73	12	0%	1.3	21.7%	14.6%	7.1%	2.3%	3.04	4.40	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	0	200	867	188	127	20	0%	1.3	21.7%	14.6%	7.1%	2.3%	3.04	4.40	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Clark (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	21.4%	14.8%	2.9%	—	5.15	21.4%	7.1%	113	+0.03	—	—	—
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	88
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	88
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	86
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	83
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	81
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	81
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	21.4%	14.5%	1.16	5.11
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*