Juan Severino — OGILVIE

Juan Severino P FCL Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%22.7%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Red	16	1	18	100	17	17	1	6%	1.1	11.6%	21.3%	-9.7%	1.3%	6.11	5.54	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Red	16	1	18	100	17	17	1	6%	1.1	17.0%	17.0%	0.0%	1.0%	6.11	4.80	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	0	16	88	13	18	1	0%	1.2	10.0%	25.6%	-15.5%	1.5%	9.92	6.33	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	0	16	88	13	18	1	0%	1.2	14.8%	20.5%	-5.7%	1.1%	9.92	5.61	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	15	3	27	136	31	16	0	20%	1.8	15.5%	14.7%	0.8%	0.0%	6.07	3.65	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	15	3	27	136	31	16	0	20%	1.8	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	0.0%	6.07	2.58	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	18	2	32	151	34	22	2	11%	1.8	15.3%	18.2%	-2.9%	1.9%	6.25	5.16	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	18	2	32	151	34	22	2	11%	1.8	15.3%	18.2%	-2.9%	1.9%	6.25	5.16	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	18	2	32	151	34	22	2	11%	1.8	22.5%	14.6%	7.9%	1.3%	6.25	3.86	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	0	11	46	15	3	1	0%	1.4	32.6%	6.5%	26.1%	2.2%	3.27	2.37	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	0	11	46	15	3	1	0%	1.4	32.6%	6.5%	26.1%	2.2%	3.27	2.37	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	0	11	46	15	3	1	0%	1.4	32.6%	6.5%	26.1%	2.2%	3.27	2.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	18	0	19	80	18	10	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.3%	10.3%	3.0%	4.77	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	20	9	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.55	0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.55	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.17	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.17	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		71	6	103	521	80	94	7	8%	1.5	15.3%	18.1%	-2.8%	1.3%	6.45	4.79	0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	12	200	1008	154	182	13	8%	1.5	15.3%	18.1%	-2.8%	1.3%	6.45	4.79	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Severino (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	22.7%	12.3%	3.0%	—	4.55	23.3%	12.1%	20	-0.22	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	86
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	86
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	86
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	85
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Vince Arobio R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	23	SU	4.47	20.5%	12.0%	2.9%	.365	3.67	24.1%	16.2%	55	-0.80	3.67	118	85
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	85
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85