Manuel Castro

P San Antonio Missions

Age 25 RHP 5'8" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	41	61	3.26	1.96	29.4%	5.5%	—	K 22.1% · BB 6.8% · FIP 3.04
2025	23	MIX2 levels	47	59	3.99	3.19	29.2%	13.2%	—	K 24.3% · BB 12.9% · FIP 3.74
2026	24	AASD	6	5	5.06	3.66	12.5%	12.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	25	MLBSD	39	41	4.45	4.45	23.0%	10.9%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSD	22	23	4.42	4.41	23.2%	10.7%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSD	31	33	4.43	4.44	23.2%	10.7%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGarrett Mock (age 25) · Jesus Pirela (age 26) · Chris Jefferson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%23.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	9	0	17	72	25	5	0	0%	1.9	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	0.0%	1.04	2.21	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	9	0	17	72	25	5	0	0%	1.9	34.7%	6.9%	27.8%	0.0%	1.04	1.08	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	40	191	55	25	7	31%	2.5	20.6%	15.7%	4.9%	5.3%	7.59	6.23	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	5	40	191	55	25	7	31%	2.5	28.8%	13.1%	15.7%	3.7%	7.59	4.49	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	12	5	46	189	55	12	3	42%	3.8	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	1.8%	3.91	3.24	—
2023	21	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	12	5	46	189	55	12	3	42%	3.8	29.1%	6.3%	22.8%	1.6%	3.91	2.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	61	255	75	14	3	0%	1.5	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.7%	3.26	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	61	255	75	14	3	0%	1.5	22.1%	6.8%	15.3%	1.7%	3.26	3.04	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	61	255	75	14	3	0%	1.5	29.4%	5.5%	23.9%	1.2%	3.26	1.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	59	250	73	33	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	12.9%	11.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.74	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	59	250	73	33	4	0%	1.2	24.3%	12.9%	11.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.74	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	59	250	73	33	4	0%	1.2	29.2%	13.2%	16.0%	1.6%	3.99	3.19	—
2026	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	6	0	5	24	3	3	0	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.06	3.63	—
2026	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	6	0	5	24	3	3	0	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.06	3.63	—
2026	24	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	6	0	5	24	3	3	0	0%	0.9	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.06	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SD	39	0	41	173	40	19	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.9%	12.0%	2.8%	4.45	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	50	0	53	223	52	24	6	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.41	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	50	0	52	220	51	23	6	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.44	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	22	0	23	97	23	10	3	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.8%	4.42	4.41	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	31	0	33	139	32	15	4	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	0	56	237	55	25	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.05	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	89	25	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.7%	12.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.05	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		131	10	228	981	217	103	23	8%	1.7	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	2.3%	4.22	3.83	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	9	200	859	190	90	20	8%	1.7	22.1%	10.5%	11.6%	2.3%	4.22	3.83	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	23.0%	10.9%	2.8%	—	4.42	23.2%	12.5%	105	-0.03	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	91
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	90
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	90
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	89
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	88
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	87
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	87
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Dusty Isaacs R 2017 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	23.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.255	4.62	21.6%	9.9%	86	+0.62	3.16	253	86
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	86
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	86
Nick Altermatt R 2024 · 3.39 FIP	24	SU	3.39	21.2%	9.5%	1.6%	.282	3.78	20.0%	13.0%	95	+0.39	2.20	144	86
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	86
Jordan Milbrath R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	19.9%	10.4%	2.4%	.272	3.61	19.6%	9.7%	129	-0.44	3.19	386	85
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	85
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	85
Guido Knudson R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	25	SU	3.50	20.7%	11.1%	1.4%	.255	4.69	17.5%	6.7%	47	+1.19	3.50	106	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	23.1%	10.8%	1.09	4.43
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*