Chase Valentine — OGILVIE

Chase ValentineSS Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs A HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 122 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .257 / .263

PA122

HR1

K%29

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	27	25	3	1	1	0	2	17	0	0	0	120	185	240	425	120	375	63	7	193	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	17	15	5	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	1	333	412	333	745		455	24	12	348	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	144	124	20	3	2	0	15	57	2	1	2	161	262	218	480	56	294	40	10	226	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	29	22	7	4	0	0	4	6	0	1	2	318	423	500	923	182	412	21	14	367	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	264	222	56	9	0	5	31	76	6	6	4	252	359	360	719	108	357	29	12	326	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	61	48	6	2	0	0	9	22	1	2	1	125	276	167	443	42	214	36	15	216	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	209	187	40	11	0	1	17	57	3	11	7	214	290	289	579	75	300	27	8	266	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	27	26	0	0	0	0	1	25	0	0	0		37		37		283	93	4	43	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	17	16	5	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	312	353	312	665		449	29	6	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	144	129	15	2	2	0	10	81	2	1	2	116	191	163	354	47	276	56	7	157	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	29	23	6	3	0	0	3	9	0	1	2	261	346	391	737	130	310	31	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	264	231	44	6	0	4	22	103	6	6	4	190	278	268	546	78	301	39	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	61	51	5	1	0	0	6	28	1	2	1	98	207	118	325	20	183	46	10	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	209	192	29	7	0	1	12	81	3	11	7	151	213	203	416	52	250	39	6	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	27	26	0	0	0	0	1	25	0	0	0		37		37			93	4	43	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	27	25	3	1	1	0	2	17	0	0	0	120	185	240	425	120	375	63	7	193	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	190	168	25	5	2	0	14	95	2	2	5	149	223	202	425	54	333	50	7	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	190	161	32	7	2	0	21	67	2	2	5	199	299	267	566	68	333	35	11	259	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	264	231	44	6	0	4	22	103	6	6	4	190	278	268	546	78	317	39	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	264	222	56	9	0	5	31	76	6	6	4	252	359	360	719	108	357	29	12	326	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	270	242	35	9	0	1	19	109	4	13	8	145	219	194	413	50	252	40	7	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	270	235	46	13	0	1	26	79	4	13	8	196	287	264	551	68	285	29	10	255	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	27	26	0	0	0	0	1	25	0	0	0		37		37		283	93	4	43	-85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	190	172	25	5	2	0	14	95	2	2	5	145	223	198	421	52	297	50	7	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	264	234	44	6	0	4	22	103	6	6	4	188	278	265	543	77	301	39	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	270	245	35	9	0	1	19	109	4	13	8	143	219	192	411	49	235	40	7	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	264	234	44	6	0	4	22	103	6	6	4	188	278	265	543	77	301	39	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	270	245	35	9	0	1	19	109	4	13	8	143	219	192	411	49	235	40	7	184	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	0%	320	291	56	12	1	2	22	92	4	6	2	192	259	266	525	74	269	29	7	241	49	-19	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	30%	145	132	25	5	1	1	10	41	2	3	1	197	263	280	544	84	270	28	7	249	55	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	30%	44	40	8	2	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	193	260	275	535	82	265	27	7	245	55	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	44	40	8	2	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	200	273	250	523	50	286	27	7	245	30	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	119	30	0	0	44	177	15	15	0	201	274	252	526	51	287	27	7	245	30	-35	+3	+0	+7	+14	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1018	910	150	29	4	7	75	408	15	26	19	165	240	229	469	64	284	40	7	213	30	-15	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	96	19	3	4	48	261	10	17	12	165	241	229	470	64	286	40	7	213	30	-37	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Chase Valentine (OGILVIE)	25	30	25	55	30	191/257/263	73	269	1	2	29%	7%	49	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Givin 2022 · AA	25	38	38→30	50→45	43	187/248/261	74	257	6	6	29%	7%	45	-2.7	202/264/278	76	269	6	7	25%	7%	55	-1.9	194/260/252	58	250	4	5	23%	7%	45	-1.3
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	177/235/240	63	250	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	215/285/296	81	280	8	14	24%	8%	67	-1.1	210/285/284	74	270	8	16	24%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Justin Twine 2021 · AA	25	46→33	38→40	48→50	37	218/259/301	83	300	5	10	29%	4%	57	-1.8	210/252/315	105	363	9	17	42%	4%	59	-1.7	191/223/297	106	362	9	25	48%	2%	42	-1.2
✕Matt Whatley 2021 · A	25	39→37	38→40	52→50	46	189/263/263	75	259	5	15	28%	8%	52	-2.2	193/256/274	81	275	8	10	31%	7%	51	-2.2	172/233/253	81	229	10	8	29%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Chris Roller 2022 · AA	25	40	39→45	53→55	40	192/250/279	87	274	5	16	31%	6%	50	-2.3	189/266/297	108	285	10	16	35%	8%	61	-1.5	173/257/287	114	273	12	16	38%	8%	54	-1.2
✕Tra Holmes 2021 · A	25	39→36	37→30	49→50	36	186/249/254	69	291	4	13	36%	6%	45	-2.7	197/254/282	85	409	7	17	49%	6%	52	-2.2	126/185/161	34	415	3	38	66%	6%	-4	-1.1
✕Casio Grider 2013 · A	25	40→39	38→40	56→55	37	192/248/279	87	281	4	18	32%	5%	49	-2.4	198/253/282	84	300	6	23	34%	5%	51	-2.2	188/244/265	77	288	5	30	34%	5%	41	-1.5
✕Anthony Mulrine 2023 · AAA	25	37	38→40	45→40	40	181/259/253	72	263	5	5	31%	6%	49	-2.4	196/275/282	86	273	7	6	29%	7%	61	-1.5	149/252/214	66	204	4	0	27%	8%	36	-0.7
✕Wyatt Hendrie 2024 · A	25	38	40	51→50	39	184/253/275	91	288	8	9	37%	7%	51	-2.3	193/268/288	95	284	9	12	33%	8%	59	-1.6	167/254/245	78	237	10	16	32%	8%	44	-0.6
✕Jackson Glenn 2023 · A	25	41	38→40	52→45	40	197/254/282	85	291	5	11	32%	6%	52	-2.2	203/250/304	101	279	10	8	30%	5%	55	-1.9	197/242/299	102	261	11	6	28%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Logan Warmoth 2021 · AA	25	44→40	37→40	53→55	41	200/269/277	76	312	4	13	34%	7%	57	-1.8	197/277/296	99	311	9	20	36%	8%	65	-1.2	187/271/285	97	288	9	24	35%	8%	58	-1.1
✕Oliver Marmol 2010 · A	24	37	37→40	51→55	38	177/252/249	72	262	4	15	32%	5%	45	-2.7	199/280/298	99	306	7	12	35%	7%	67	-1.1	165/264/278	113	272	8	12	38%	7%	57	-0.4
✕Chris Paul 2017 · A	24	40→37	38→40	52→40	36	194/241/271	78	282	5	5	32%	4%	44	-2.8	218/260/314	96	295	7	4	27%	4%	61	-1.5	228/265/331	103	298	8	2	26%	3%	65	-0.7
✕Jack Winkler 2024 · AA	25	43→41	39→40	50→55	44	208/271/297	89	274	7	14	26%	7%	61	-1.5	188/250/281	93	257	9	22	29%	6%	51	-2.3	172/236/263	91	235	10	24	30%	6%	39	-2.2
✕Cristopher Navarro 2024 · AA	25	38	35→30	47→45	38	181/228/241	59	266	3	5	32%	6%	32	-3.6	208/268/297	89	286	7	8	28%	7%	61	-1.5	203/272/274	71	272	7	4	26%	7%	55	-0.4
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→32	37→45	48→50	42	194/258/268	74	273	4	7	29%	6%	51	-2.3	203/269/323	120	290	13	15	33%	8%	68	-1.0	184/253/304	120	257	14	15	33%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Jose Vinicio 2018 · AAA	25	46→32	38→40	50→55	35	224/246/306	82	297	6	13	27%	3%	53	-2.1	212/240/302	90	297	7	14	30%	3%	51	-2.3	199/218/274	75	281	5	16	31%	2%	33	-1.8
✕Rand Smith 2012 · A	25	43→39	38→30	49→50	45	206/267/280	74	279	5	13	27%	7%	56	-1.9	211/273/286	75	302	5	8	29%	8%	60	-1.6	193/262/233	41	282	1	4	30%	8%	41	-1.1
✕Branden Fryman 2023 · AAA	25	37	39→30	50	38	185/228/263	78	252	7	15	29%	5%	37	-3.3	204/242/303	99	290	8	11	31%	4%	52	-2.2	197/221/298	101	278	7	9	31%	3%	39	-1.0
✕Jayson Hernandez 2013 · AA	24	39	39→30	49→30	37	192/235/277	84	281	6	8	33%	5%	43	-2.8	212/258/285	73	281	5	5	25%	4%	53	-2.1	222/266/253	31	284	2	0	21%	3%	46	-1.0