Nate Nabholz

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 26 RHP A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	MIX2 levels	16	2	37	2.95	4.27	14.4%	7.5%	—	K 10.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.24
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	21	0	22	4.93	4.93	15.8%	8.9%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBSF	11	0	12	4.89	4.91	16.5%	9.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTyler Yates (age 26) · Conor Steinbaugh (age 25) · Jose Campos (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.93

FIP4.93

K%15.8%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%6.9%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	2	37	146	21	11	4	12%	2.3	10.8%	8.8%	2.0%	3.5%	2.95	5.24	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	2	37	146	21	11	4	12%	2.3	10.8%	8.8%	2.0%	3.5%	2.95	5.24	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	2	37	146	21	11	4	12%	2.3	14.4%	7.5%	6.8%	2.7%	2.95	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	21	0	22	93	15	8	3	0%	1.0	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.0%	4.93	4.93	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	31	0	32	137	23	12	4	0%	1.0	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.89	4.91	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	11	0	12	51	8	5	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	8	5	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.89	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	134	84	34	0%	1.1	16.5%	9.0%	7.5%	3.1%	4.89	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		16	2	37	146	16	13	5	12%	2.3	10.8%	8.8%	2.0%	3.5%	2.95	5.24	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	11	200	796	86	70	28	12%	2.3	10.8%	8.8%	2.0%	3.5%	2.95	5.24	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Nabholz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	15.8%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.91	16.5%	7.5%	32	-0.02	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	82
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	82
Jose Campos R 2018 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	.377	6.69	15.5%	4.5%	26	+2.03	3.28	241	82
Jorge Campillo R 2007 · 4.84 FIP	28	SU	4.84	14.3%	9.5%	3.2%	.348	3.93	16.3%	10.8%	159	-0.91	3.93	172	82
Derek Self R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	15.1%	8.1%	1.8%	.331	4.73	13.7%	9.0%	189	+0.89	3.82	302	81
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	80
Rob Scahill R 2013 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	13.4%	5.4%	3.0%	.302	3.73	16.6%	8.3%	108	-0.55	3.06	250	80
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	80
Cesar Gomez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	15.7%	9.1%	2.9%	.338	5.17	14.1%	5.8%	63	+0.67	4.11	345	80
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	80
Zach Bryant R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	26	SU	4.85	18.0%	9.6%	3.7%	.313	4.87	16.1%	5.0%	106	+0.02	4.51	215	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	79
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	79
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	202	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	79
Ryan Doolittle R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	15.1%	6.7%	2.5%	.315	4.38	13.9%	6.8%	44	+0.35	4.03	101	79
Tyler Higgins R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	15.5%	7.2%	2.9%	.312	5.24	23.0%	16.1%	81	+0.96	3.53	290	79
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	79
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	16.2%	9.0%	1.18	4.91
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*