Gordon Graceffo

P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	29	27	138	4.84	4.57	18.4%	8.5%	0.5	K 15.8% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.77
2025	25	MIX2 levels	50	4	88	4.99	3.09	22.2%	6.8%	1.6	K 20.5% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.40
2026	26	MIX2 levels	63	1	82	2.62	3.57	19.3%	10.3%	1.0	K 19.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	66	0	69	4.23	4.33	19.7%	8.6%	0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBSTL	61	0	64	4.34	4.41	19.6%	8.8%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSTL	58	0	61	4.48	4.57	19.0%	9.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo61

xwOBA vs36

K%30

Whiff%21

CompsRoberto Gómez (age 27) · Jorge Reyes (age 27) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.23

FIP4.33

K%19.7%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p2121.2%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

FB+2.6 (45%)

SL+1.8 (31%)

SI (7%)

CT (1%)

CU (8%)

CH (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	1	26	116	37	9	1	9%	2.4	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	1.2%	1.73	2.93	—
2021	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	11	1	26	116	37	9	1	9%	2.4	31.9%	7.8%	24.1%	0.9%	1.73	1.79	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	139	544	139	28	17	100%	5.4	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	3.5%	2.97	4.03	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	139	544	139	28	17	100%	5.4	25.6%	5.1%	20.4%	3.1%	2.97	3.29	—
2023	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	2.7%	4.92	4.38	—
2023	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	21	18	86	387	81	45	9	86%	4.1	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	2.3%	4.92	4.15	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.77	+0.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	15.8%	7.7%	8.1%	3.7%	4.84	4.77	+0.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	138	614	113	52	21	93%	4.7	18.4%	8.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.84	4.57	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	20.5%	6.4%	14.1%	2.2%	4.99	3.40	+1.2
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	20.5%	6.4%	14.1%	2.2%	4.99	3.40	+1.2
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	4	88	383	85	26	7	8%	1.8	22.2%	6.8%	15.4%	1.8%	4.99	3.09	+1.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	82	331	64	34	5	2%	1.3	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	1.6%	2.62	3.66	+0.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	1	82	331	64	34	5	2%	1.3	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	1.6%	2.62	3.66	+0.9
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	1	82	331	64	34	5	2%	1.3	19.3%	10.3%	9.1%	1.5%	2.62	3.57	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			90	2	132	550	109	48	8	2%	1.5	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	1.5%	3.96	3.33	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	66	0	69	291	57	25	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.6%	11.1%	2.6%	4.23	4.33	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	282	55	25	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	270	51	24	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.57	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	61	0	64	270	53	24	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	58	0	61	258	49	23	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.0%	10.0%	2.8%	4.48	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		208	2	256	1075	210	95	22	1%	1.2	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.1%	4.18	3.71	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		163	2	200	840	164	74	17	1%	1.2	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.1%	4.18	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		200	77	560	2375	447	188	67	38%	2.8	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.07	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	28	200	849	160	67	24	38%	2.8	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	2.8%	3.94	4.07	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gordon Graceffo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	19.7%	8.6%	2.6%	—	4.49	19.3%	10.4%	131	+0.16	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	82
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	78
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	77
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	75
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	75
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	75
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	75
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	74
Noah Davis R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	27	SW	3.88	18.5%	8.4%	2.3%	.368	5.10	18.3%	7.9%	183	+1.22	3.76	596	74
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	74
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	74
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	74
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	73
Nick Morreale R 2024 · 3.96 FIP	27	SW	3.96	19.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.271	3.72	11.7%	-1.1%	14	-0.24	2.97	280	73
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	73
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	66	19.6%	9.0%	0.86	4.19
Phil Coke ('16)	2.1	70	17.7%	8.7%	0.71	4.19
Cesár Ramos ('16)	1.7	58	17.8%	9.3%	0.91	4.02
Tony Peña ('06-'11, 2 WAR*)	1.9	63	17.8%*	7.8%*	0.96*	4.15*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Dooley Womack ('66-'70, 2 WAR*)	1.5	76	17.6%*	9.1%*	0.92*	3.91*