Nathan Dettmer

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AOAK	4	3	10	10.24	4.76	22.9%	8.3%	—	K 22.9% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.51
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	20	109	5.93	3.91	17.4%	8.9%	—	K 13.0% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.69
2026	24	MIX4 levels	27	22	120	4.86	3.54	22.3%	6.5%	—	K 17.0% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	14	14	80	5.27	5.27	15.7%	10.1%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBOAK	8	8	47	5.13	5.10	17.1%	9.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBOAK	11	11	67	5.07	5.07	17.4%	9.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff46Control45Command35FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsDylan Burns (age 25) · Carlos Sano (age 25) · Brooks Hall (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%15.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%5.6%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3045

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	2	3	11	3	1	0	100%	1.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	2	2	3	11	3	1	0	100%	1.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2024	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	3	10	48	11	4	2	75%	2.4	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	4.2%	10.24	4.51	—
2024	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	3	10	48	11	4	2	75%	2.4	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	4.2%	10.24	4.51	—
2024	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	4	3	10	48	11	4	2	75%	2.4	22.9%	8.3%	14.6%	4.2%	10.24	4.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	109	505	88	45	10	80%	4.4	13.0%	10.4%	2.6%	2.5%	5.93	4.69	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	20	109	505	88	45	10	80%	4.4	13.0%	10.4%	2.6%	2.5%	5.93	4.69	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	20	109	505	88	45	10	80%	4.4	17.4%	8.9%	8.5%	2.0%	5.93	3.91	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	22	120	511	114	33	14	81%	4.5	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.4%	4.86	4.51	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	22	120	511	114	33	14	81%	4.5	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.4%	4.86	4.51	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	22	120	511	114	33	14	81%	4.5	22.3%	6.5%	15.9%	2.7%	4.86	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	14	14	80	338	53	34	11	100%	5.7	15.7%	10.1%	5.6%	3.3%	5.27	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	108	457	78	45	15	100%	6.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	3.3%	5.13	5.10	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	107	451	79	44	15	100%	5.9	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	3.3%	5.07	5.07	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	104	437	77	43	15	100%	6.1	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.08	5.12	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	99	417	73	42	15	100%	6.2	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.6%	5.16	5.23	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	15	15	93	392	67	40	15	100%	6.2	17.1%	10.3%	6.8%	3.8%	5.31	5.40	-0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	47	198	34	19	7	100%	5.9	17.1%	9.8%	7.2%	3.3%	5.13	5.10	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	67	283	49	28	9	100%	6.1	17.4%	9.7%	7.7%	3.3%	5.07	5.07	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	78	329	58	32	11	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.08	5.12	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	59	34	12	100%	6.2	17.4%	10.0%	7.4%	3.6%	5.16	5.23	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	13	13	80	338	58	35	13	100%	6.2	17.1%	10.3%	6.8%	3.8%	5.31	5.40	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	59	352	1485	257	147	52	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.16	4.82	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	146	84	30	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.16	4.82	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		58	47	242	1075	167	97	32	81%	4.2	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	3.0%	5.50	4.57	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	887	138	80	27	81%	4.2	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	3.0%	5.50	4.57	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Dettmer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	15.7%	10.1%	3.3%	—	5.10	17.3%	7.6%	318	-0.17	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	85
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	84
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	84
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	84
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	84
Trenton Toplikar R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP-	5.25	16.4%	9.3%	4.3%	.325	5.83	16.9%	4.2%	30	+0.58	4.32	232	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	83
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Esmil Rogers R 2011 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	15.6%	10.4%	3.1%	.337	4.10	19.4%	12.0%	262	-0.69	2.86	616	82
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	82
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	82
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81
Jared Ruxer R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	14.0%	7.0%	3.7%	.301	6.47	13.8%	5.0%	19	+1.65	3.39	270	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	81
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	81
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	98	17.1%	9.9%	1.34	5.16
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Victor Santos ('07)	3.0	86	15.6%	10.2%	1.29	5.21
Les Webber ('42-'48, -1 WAR*)	2.2	86	17.0%*	10.4%*	1.30*	5.13*
Brandon Backe ('09)	2.6	88	15.4%	10.2%	1.49	5.23
Bob McGraw ('17-'29, -2 WAR*)	3.0	99	16.8%*	11.0%*	1.21*	5.01*
Galen Cisco ('61-'69, -2 WAR*)	3.3	94	14.7%*	10.4%*	1.22*	5.30*