Matt Ager

P Altoona Curve

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	APIT	22	19	76	4.86	4.84	14.0%	13.2%	—	K 10.4% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.69
2026	23	MIX2 levels	26	20	124	5.52	5.31	17.9%	7.2%	—	K 14.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 6.21
2027PROJ	24	MLBPIT	14	14	76	5.96	5.96	12.8%	10.4%	-0.9
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBPIT	9	9	50	5.68	5.61	14.8%	9.6%	-0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBPIT	13	13	76	5.50	5.45	16.1%	9.4%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff42Control30Command54FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 90%

CompsAaron Heilman (age 24) · Greg Reynolds (age 23) · John Maine (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.96

FIP5.96

K%12.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%2.4%

Proj IP76

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 76 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD5055

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	76	357	50	47	7	86%	3.5	10.4%	15.5%	-5.2%	2.7%	4.86	5.69	—
2025	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	76	357	50	47	7	86%	3.5	10.4%	15.5%	-5.2%	2.7%	4.86	5.69	—
2025	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	22	19	76	357	50	47	7	86%	3.5	14.0%	13.2%	0.8%	2.0%	4.86	4.84	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	124	542	97	39	27	77%	4.8	14.3%	8.0%	6.4%	6.0%	5.52	6.21	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	124	542	97	39	27	77%	4.8	14.3%	8.0%	6.4%	6.0%	5.52	6.21	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	124	542	97	39	27	77%	4.8	17.9%	7.2%	10.7%	5.0%	5.52	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PIT	14	14	76	321	41	33	13	100%	5.4	12.8%	10.4%	2.4%	4.1%	5.96	5.96	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	477	71	46	19	100%	5.9	14.8%	9.6%	5.3%	4.0%	5.68	5.61	-0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	113	477	77	45	19	100%	5.9	16.1%	9.4%	6.6%	3.9%	5.50	5.45	-0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	111	470	77	44	18	100%	5.9	16.3%	9.4%	6.9%	3.9%	5.43	5.42	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	108	456	75	43	18	100%	6.0	16.4%	9.5%	6.8%	4.0%	5.45	5.48	-0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	103	435	70	42	18	100%	6.1	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	4.1%	5.55	5.61	-0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	409	65	41	18	100%	6.1	15.8%	10.0%	5.7%	4.3%	5.69	5.79	-0.9
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	50	211	31	20	8	100%	5.6	14.8%	9.6%	5.3%	4.0%	5.68	5.61	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	76	321	52	30	12	100%	5.8	16.1%	9.4%	6.6%	3.9%	5.50	5.45	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	86	363	59	34	14	100%	6.1	16.3%	9.4%	6.9%	3.9%	5.43	5.42	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	91	384	63	37	15	100%	6.1	16.4%	9.5%	6.8%	4.0%	5.45	5.48	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	90	380	61	37	16	100%	6.0	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	4.1%	5.55	5.61	-0.7
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	87	367	58	37	16	100%	6.2	15.8%	10.0%	5.7%	4.3%	5.69	5.79	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	80	480	2027	324	195	82	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.6%	6.4%	4.0%	5.54	5.18	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	135	81	34	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.6%	6.4%	4.0%	5.54	5.18	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	39	200	899	115	99	42	81%	4.2	12.7%	11.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.26	6.00	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	899	115	99	42	81%	4.2	12.7%	11.0%	1.8%	4.7%	5.26	6.00	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Ager (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.96	12.8%	10.4%	4.1%	—	5.49	15.7%	6.3%	337	-0.47	—	—	—
Aaron Heilman R 2003 · 5.57 FIP	24	SP	5.57	16.2%	12.4%	4.1%	.311	3.13	22.0%	14.1%	223	-2.44	2.76	630	84
Greg Reynolds R 2008 · 6.07 FIP	23	SP	6.07	7.5%	7.8%	4.8%	.294	4.78	12.5%	6.9%	32	-1.29	4.66	148	83
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	83
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	83
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	83
Matt Wise R 2000 · 5.35 FIP	24	SP-	5.35	12.3%	7.4%	4.3%	.266	4.98	23.7%	15.6%	49	-0.37	3.33	302	82
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	82
Paxton Schultz R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	24	SP-	5.27	17.5%	12.2%	3.8%	.293	4.31	21.9%	11.8%	274	-0.96	3.83	543	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	82
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	82
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	82
Drew Gagnon R 2015 · 5.56 FIP	25	SP-	5.56	11.6%	12.6%	3.4%	.313	4.02	20.4%	12.2%	311	-1.54	3.71	534	81
Matthew DeRosier R 2018 · 5.67 FIP	24	SP-	5.67	15.1%	9.1%	4.9%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	200	81
Kevin Biondic R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	8.6%	11.0%	3.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	5.52	100	81
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	81
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	81
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	81
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	81
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	103	15.6%	9.7%	1.56	5.59
Brandon Backe ('09)	2.6	88	15.4%	10.2%	1.49	5.23
Hector Noesí ('19)	2.1	70	16.4%	8.7%	1.53	5.51
Dick Lange ('72-'75, -3 WAR*)	1.4	92	16.6%*	9.6%*	1.42*	5.49*
Dick Pole ('73-'78, -1 WAR*)	2.7	88	15.8%*	8.8%*	1.47*	5.40*
Matt Kinney ('05)	1.9	97	16.8%	9.9%	1.39	5.29
Mike Brown ('82-'87, -2 WAR*)	1.3	85	14.3%*	8.8%*	1.41*	5.73*