Juan Rodriguez (P, Charleston RiverDogs) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Juan Rodriguez P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.4%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	13	6	34	158	32	31	1	46%	2.6	13.8%	24.5%	-10.8%	1.0%	5.82	5.59	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	13	6	34	158	32	31	1	46%	2.6	20.3%	19.6%	0.6%	0.6%	5.82	4.34	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	14	0	16	64	18	7	0	0%	1.1	19.1%	13.7%	5.5%	0.0%	2.87	3.22	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	14	0	16	64	18	7	0	0%	1.1	28.1%	10.9%	17.2%	0.0%	2.87	2.14	—
2023	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	14	0	18	82	15	9	2	0%	1.3	13.5%	13.0%	0.6%	2.9%	4.91	5.22	—
2023	21	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	14	0	18	82	15	9	2	0%	1.3	13.5%	13.0%	0.6%	2.9%	4.91	5.22	—
2023	21	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	14	0	18	82	15	9	2	0%	1.3	18.3%	11.0%	7.3%	2.4%	4.91	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	10.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.40	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.40	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.02	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.02	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		41	6	68	304	45	58	4	15%	1.7	14.8%	19.1%	-4.3%	1.3%	4.90	4.99	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	18	200	894	133	171	12	15%	1.7	14.8%	19.1%	-4.3%	1.3%	4.90	4.99	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.4%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.40	22.9%	13.3%	20	-0.10	—	—	—
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	86
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	83
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	83
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	83
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	83
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	83
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	82
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	82
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	82
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	82
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	82
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	82
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	81
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	81
Guillermo Moscoso R 2009 · 3.56 FIP	25	SU	3.56	18.8%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	4.33	15.8%	8.5%	178	+0.77	3.56	486	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	81