Michael McGreevy

P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	31	30	173	3.75	3.22	21.5%	6.4%	3.6	K 18.9% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.46
2025	25	MIX2 levels	32	31	171	4.11	3.57	19.3%	5.0%	2.8	K 17.7% · BB 4.7% · FIP 3.90
2026	26	MLBSTL	31	31	169	3.95	4.21	16.4%	6.8%	1.4
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	28	28	165	4.38	4.56	16.2%	5.7%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBSTL	26	26	157	4.42	4.53	16.1%	5.9%	0.5
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSTL	25	25	150	4.57	4.68	15.5%	6.1%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.529First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Ext$9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs17

FB Velo14

Whiff%13

K%10

CompsJeff Niemann (age 27) · Todd Ritchie (age 28) · Kyle Gibson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.38

FIP4.56

K%16.2%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%10.5%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL6070

CMD5560

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1320.1%

p1016.4%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

CH+4.2 (20%)

FB+3.7 (41%)

CT+1.1 (11%)

SI (16%)

CU (13%)

SL-5.1 (15%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	8	39	7	2	1	100%	1.1	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	2.6%	9.39	3.64	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	8	39	7	2	1	100%	1.1	17.9%	5.1%	12.8%	2.6%	9.39	3.75	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	144	592	117	30	15	100%	5.2	15.7%	5.6%	10.1%	2.8%	3.99	4.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	144	592	117	30	15	100%	5.2	19.8%	5.1%	14.7%	2.5%	3.99	3.45	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	15.8%	5.2%	10.6%	2.9%	4.12	4.04	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	664	123	38	17	100%	5.7	18.5%	5.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.12	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	18.9%	5.7%	13.1%	2.2%	3.75	3.46	+3.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	18.9%	5.7%	13.1%	2.2%	3.75	3.46	+3.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	173	724	156	46	15	97%	5.6	21.5%	6.4%	15.2%	2.1%	3.75	3.22	+3.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	17.7%	4.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.11	3.90	+2.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	17.7%	4.7%	13.0%	3.1%	4.11	3.90	+2.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	171	706	136	35	19	97%	5.3	19.3%	5.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.11	3.57	+2.8
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	169	702	115	48	21	100%	5.4	16.4%	6.8%	9.5%	3.2%	3.95	4.35	+1.1
2026	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	169	702	115	48	21	100%	5.4	16.4%	6.8%	9.5%	3.2%	3.95	4.35	+1.1
2026	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	169	702	115	48	21	100%	5.4	16.4%	6.8%	9.5%	3.0%	3.95	4.21	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	50	287	1188	191	70	34	96%	5.5	16.1%	5.9%	10.2%	2.9%	3.95	4.04	+2.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	28	28	165	697	113	40	22	100%	5.9	16.2%	5.7%	10.5%	3.1%	4.38	4.56	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	165	698	112	41	23	100%	5.9	16.1%	5.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.54	4.65	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	158	667	103	41	23	100%	6.1	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.4%	4.70	4.81	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	148	627	93	40	23	100%	5.9	14.8%	6.4%	8.4%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	-0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	138	584	82	40	22	100%	6.0	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	3.8%	5.10	5.25	-0.5
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	26	26	157	663	107	39	20	100%	6.0	16.1%	5.9%	10.2%	3.0%	4.42	4.53	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	STL	25	25	150	633	98	39	20	100%	6.0	15.5%	6.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.57	4.68	+0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	141	595	88	38	20	100%	5.9	14.8%	6.4%	8.4%	3.3%	4.75	4.87	-0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	131	553	78	37	20	100%	6.0	14.1%	6.8%	7.3%	3.6%	4.95	5.10	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	147	867	3635	562	224	114	99%	5.8	15.5%	6.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.42	4.29	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	839	130	52	26	99%	5.8	15.5%	6.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.42	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		156	154	817	3427	582	193	98	99%	5.2	17.0%	5.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.03	3.95	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	839	142	47	24	99%	5.2	17.0%	5.6%	11.4%	2.9%	4.03	3.95	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael McGreevy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	16.2%	5.7%	3.1%	—	4.82	15.5%	9.4%	472	+0.26	—	—	—
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	78
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	78
Kyle Gibson R 2015 · 3.72 FIP	27	SP	3.72	17.7%	7.2%	2.2%	.280	4.26	19.0%	10.3%	519	+0.54	3.56	1,920	77
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	77
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	75
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	75
Jason Hammel R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	27	SP	3.45	18.3%	6.0%	2.1%	.324	4.13	16.5%	8.2%	428	+0.68	3.10	1,810	75
Brian Bannister R 2008 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP	4.78	13.9%	7.0%	3.6%	.304	4.63	14.1%	6.4%	282	-0.15	3.97	667	74
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	73
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,288	73
Brian Lawrence R 2003 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	13.1%	5.5%	3.0%	.259	4.09	13.4%	7.7%	399	-0.28	3.33	963	72
Tomo Ohka R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	27	SP	3.97	13.7%	3.9%	2.8%	.304	4.51	11.9%	5.3%	362	+0.54	3.75	1,070	72
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.40	13.9%	5.5%	286	+2.10	3.27	965	72
Nick Blackburn R 2009 · 4.29 FIP	27	SP	4.29	11.1%	4.5%	2.8%	.299	5.04	10.2%	4.0%	408	+0.75	4.19	819	69
Dave Bush R 2007 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	16.5%	5.3%	3.3%	.314	4.70	14.9%	8.1%	474	+0.49	3.65	1,141	69
Rodrigo Lopez R 2003 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP	4.48	15.5%	5.6%	3.6%	.329	4.48	15.2%	8.2%	569	+0.00	4.06	1,344	69
Chad Bettis R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	17.0%	6.6%	2.4%	.303	4.46	14.9%	7.6%	263	+0.64	3.67	672	68
Hector Noesí R 2014 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	16.8%	7.5%	3.8%	.288	4.37	17.6%	9.5%	98	-0.32	3.73	613	68
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	68
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,260	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	133	15.6%	6.1%	1.27	4.50
Dave Bush ('13)	5.7	143	15.7%	6.0%	1.34	4.73
Rick Langford ('76-'86, 10 WAR*)	7.5	149	16.8%*	6.6%*	1.27*	4.48*
Iván Nova ('20)	6.7	135	16.7%	6.4%	1.24	4.38
Jeff D'Amico ('04)	3.9	112	14.8%	6.6%	1.38	4.61
Dick Bosman ('66-'76, 10 WAR*)	8.0	145	15.7%*	6.0%*	1.24*	4.56*
Wayne Garland ('73-'81, 7 WAR*)	5.2	130	15.9%*	7.4%*	1.10*	4.38*