Saul Teran

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APHI	22	25	3.96	4.06	30.3%	16.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 18.8% · FIP 5.21
2025	23	MIX3 levels	40	48	1.30	1.65	30.1%	7.5%	—	K 24.1% · BB 9.6% · FIP 2.28
2026	24	MIX2 levels	31	44	6.34	5.35	22.4%	7.8%	—	K 15.7% · BB 9.2% · FIP 6.74
2027PROJ	25	MLBPHI	57	60	5.08	5.08	19.2%	9.9%	-0.4
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBPHI	25	26	4.93	4.89	20.9%	9.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBPHI	35	37	4.88	4.88	21.1%	9.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Control50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsHueston Morrill (age 24) · Austin Ross (age 24) · Jon Leicester (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%19.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—60

CTRL—50

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	15	4	32	140	36	11	3	27%	2.1	17.5%	9.8%	7.7%	3.5%	4.50	4.81	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	15	4	32	140	36	11	3	27%	2.1	25.7%	7.9%	17.9%	2.1%	4.50	3.10	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	13.2%	9.7%	3.5%	4.0%	4.28	5.39	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	34	141	30	10	3	0%	1.7	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	2.1%	4.28	3.37	—
2024	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	2.9%	3.96	5.21	—
2024	22	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	18.8%	3.5%	2.9%	3.96	5.21	—
2024	22	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	22	0	25	119	36	19	3	0%	1.1	30.3%	16.0%	14.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.06	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	0.0%	1.30	2.28	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	24.1%	9.6%	14.5%	0.0%	1.30	2.28	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	48	186	56	14	0	0%	1.2	30.1%	7.5%	22.6%	0.0%	1.30	1.65	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	6.9%	6.34	6.74	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	15.7%	9.2%	6.5%	6.9%	6.34	6.74	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	44	205	46	16	11	0%	1.4	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	5.4%	6.34	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PHI	57	0	60	253	49	25	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.6%	5.08	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	57	0	60	251	53	24	9	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.93	4.89	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	PHI	56	0	59	247	52	24	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	25	0	26	110	23	11	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.93	4.89	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	PHI	35	0	37	156	33	15	6	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.8%	11.3%	3.5%	4.88	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	267	56	26	9	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.90	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	82	28	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.5%	4.90	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		128	4	183	791	147	87	28	3%	1.4	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.6%	3.98	4.88	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	4	200	864	160	95	31	3%	1.4	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	3.6%	3.98	4.88	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Saul Teran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	19.2%	9.9%	3.6%	—	4.89	21.0%	11.2%	118	-0.19	—	—	—
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	92
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	92
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	91
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	90
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	89
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	89
Woo-Suk Go R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	17.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.359	4.16	21.5%	10.2%	64	-0.64	3.57	116	89
Mark Peterson R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	17.8%	8.8%	3.5%	.287	4.78	13.7%	1.8%	52	+0.13	4.65	185	88
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	88
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	88
Taylor Floyd R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	25	SU	4.34	21.7%	10.8%	3.1%	.331	4.61	18.4%	8.9%	192	+0.27	3.48	359	87
Darin Gillies R 2018 · 4.81 FIP	25	SU	4.81	22.2%	10.2%	4.2%	.294	4.83	23.2%	12.8%	106	+0.02	4.22	295	87
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	87
Gavin Hollowell R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SU	4.53	21.5%	10.1%	3.6%	.273	3.82	26.5%	13.5%	100	-0.71	2.41	227	87
Shay Schanaman R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	21.0%	7.6%	3.7%	.292	6.05	16.4%	2.8%	90	+1.71	4.34	148	87
Alejandro Mateo R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	25	SU	4.93	20.6%	10.0%	4.2%	.301	3.96	21.0%	10.5%	13	-0.97	3.96	209	86
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	86
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	86
Hunter McMahon R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	16.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.301	5.84	5.7%	1.8%	14	+1.60	2.23	174	86
J.J. Putz R 2004 · 4.57 FIP	27	SU	4.57	17.1%	7.3%	3.6%	.283	2.58	28.5%	23.0%	210	-1.99	1.43	563	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.4%	9.8%	1.37	4.96
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*