Alec Baker
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 202 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.9%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%8.8%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 13 | 1 | 20 | 83 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 22.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.43 | 5.77 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 31 | 3 | 69 | 295 | 70 | 21 | 5 | 17.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 3.00 | 3.63 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 28 | 15 | 86 | 396 | 64 | 34 | 17 | 13.0% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 5.73 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 3 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 46 | 31 | 10 | 15.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 78 | 331 | 51 | 33 | 11 | 15.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 4.75 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 48 | 30 | 10 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 49 | 30 | 9 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 48 | 29 | 9 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 47 | 28 | 9 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 5.15 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 45 | 28 | 9 | 16.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 42 | 27 | 9 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.30 | 5.35 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 39 | 26 | 9 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 5.39 | 5.44 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 37 | 25 | 9 | 15.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 34 | 24 | 8 | 15.4% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 5.60 | 5.67 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 5.72 | 5.81 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 19 | 183 | 806 | 127 | 65 | 29 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.75 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 21 | 200 | 879 | 139 | 71 | 32 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.42 | 4.75 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alec Baker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.26 | 15.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | — | 5.15 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 207 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 91 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.14 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 104 | 90 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 89 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.35 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .270 | 5.55 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 38 | +1.20 | 4.02 | 165 | 89 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.52 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 169 | 88 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 87 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.80 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .301 | 3.96 | 26.2% | 21.8% | 50 | -0.84 | 3.31 | 213 | 87 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.46 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.13 | 4.33 | 125 | 87 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 87 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 86 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 218 | 86 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.36 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .294 | 4.33 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 164 | 86 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.17 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 141 | 86 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 14.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .248 | 3.93 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 52 | -0.70 | 3.93 | 258 | 86 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.53 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.78 | 3.42 | 219 | 85 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.26 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 111 | 85 |
| Jake Christianson R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.95 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 188 | 85 |
| Jason Jester R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.91 | 11.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .311 | 2.88 | 17.6% | 12.5% | 60 | -2.03 | 2.50 | 229 | 84 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 84 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.74 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 105 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.