Alec Baker — OGILVIE

Alec Baker P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 202 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%11.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%1.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	20	83	28	5	3	8%	1.6	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	6.8%	4.43	5.77	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	1	20	83	28	5	3	8%	1.6	22.1%	6.2%	15.9%	6.8%	4.43	5.77	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	1	20	83	28	5	3	8%	1.6	33.7%	6.0%	27.7%	3.6%	4.43	3.00	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	3	69	295	70	21	5	10%	2.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	2.1%	3.00	3.61	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	3	69	295	70	21	5	10%	2.2	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	2.1%	3.00	3.61	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	3	69	295	70	21	5	10%	2.2	23.7%	7.1%	16.6%	1.7%	3.00	2.93	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	15	86	396	64	34	17	54%	3.1	13.0%	9.5%	3.4%	4.0%	5.73	5.42	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	15	86	396	64	34	17	54%	3.1	13.0%	9.5%	3.4%	4.0%	5.73	5.42	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	15	86	396	64	34	17	54%	3.1	16.2%	8.6%	7.6%	4.3%	5.73	5.36	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	31	1	66	301	59	30	18	3%	2.1	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	7.2%	6.95	7.09	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	31	1	66	301	59	30	18	3%	2.1	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	7.2%	6.95	7.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	ARI	31	1	66	301	59	30	18	3%	2.1	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	6.0%	6.95	5.99	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	ARI	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	11.9%	10.1%	1.9%	3.3%	5.54	5.54	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	72	326	62	32	19	—	—	19.0%	10.0%	9.0%	5.8%	6.84	6.96	-1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	73	0	76	323	42	33	11	0%	1.0	13.1%	10.1%	3.0%	3.3%	5.44	5.45	-0.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	71	0	74	313	43	32	11	0%	1.0	13.7%	10.2%	3.6%	3.4%	5.41	5.45	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	68	0	71	299	42	31	10	0%	1.0	14.0%	10.3%	3.7%	3.5%	5.46	5.53	-0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	63	0	67	281	39	30	10	0%	1.1	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	3.7%	5.57	5.67	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	16	12	4	0%	1.0	13.1%	10.1%	3.0%	3.3%	5.44	5.45	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	42	0	44	186	26	19	6	0%	1.0	13.7%	10.2%	3.6%	3.4%	5.41	5.45	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	48	0	50	211	30	22	7	0%	1.0	14.0%	10.3%	3.7%	3.5%	5.46	5.53	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	30	23	8	0%	1.0	13.9%	10.6%	3.3%	3.7%	5.57	5.67	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	740	102	76	26	0%	1.1	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	3.5%	5.48	5.16	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	116	87	30	0%	1.1	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	3.5%	5.48	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		103	20	242	1075	170	96	49	19%	2.3	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	4.6%	5.18	5.41	-3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	17	200	890	141	79	41	19%	2.3	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	4.6%	5.18	5.41	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Baker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	11.9%	10.1%	3.3%	—	5.48	13.6%	3.4%	222	-0.06	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	84
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	80
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	80
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	80
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Starling Peralta R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	9.9%	10.0%	1.7%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	117	79
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	78
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	78
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	78
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	78
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	78
Matthew Grimes R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	26	SW	4.65	14.7%	10.9%	2.6%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	451	77
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	77
Scott Burke R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	25	SU	5.27	14.9%	8.2%	4.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	119	77
Julio Felix R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	25	SU	4.62	12.9%	8.5%	2.8%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	159	77
Andrew Gross R 2022 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	13.7%	10.6%	5.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	2.44	116	77
Casey Cobb R 2022 · 5.46 FIP	26	SU	5.46	15.8%	9.5%	4.5%	.342	5.72	18.7%	10.3%	58	+0.26	3.48	191	77
Jarod Wright R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	13.2%	9.4%	2.4%	.231	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	170	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	72	13.3%	10.2%	1.32	5.48
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10