Tyler Thornton

P Akron RubberDucks

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	40	51	2.66	3.16	37.3%	15.1%	—	K 29.0% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.42
2024	24	AACLE	24	27	4.72	2.95	29.4%	15.1%	—	K 23.8% · BB 16.6% · FIP 3.73
2025	25	MIX2 levels	33	40	4.46	4.22	29.7%	16.2%	—	K 21.1% · BB 18.0% · FIP 5.75
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	19	20	5.17	5.17	22.3%	15.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCLE	8	8	5.14	5.17	22.2%	14.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Cole McDonald (age 27) · Joe Colón J (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%22.3%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.2%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	30	0	35	143	58	20	4	0%	1.2	30.0%	16.5%	13.5%	3.6%	3.63	4.62	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	30	0	35	143	58	20	4	0%	1.2	40.6%	14.0%	26.6%	2.8%	3.63	2.98	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	51	212	79	32	5	0%	1.3	29.0%	17.1%	11.9%	2.9%	2.66	4.42	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	51	212	79	32	5	0%	1.3	37.3%	15.1%	22.2%	2.4%	2.66	3.16	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	27	126	37	19	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	1.0%	4.72	3.73	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	27	126	37	19	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	1.0%	4.72	3.73	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	24	0	27	126	37	19	1	0%	1.1	29.4%	15.1%	14.3%	0.8%	4.72	2.95	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	185	55	30	5	0%	1.2	21.1%	18.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.46	5.75	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	185	55	30	5	0%	1.2	21.1%	18.0%	3.1%	3.9%	4.46	5.75	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	40	185	55	30	5	0%	1.2	29.7%	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	4.46	4.22	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	19	0	20	84	19	13	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	15.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.17	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	19	0	20	84	19	12	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	5.14	5.17	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	5.14	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	32	7	5	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	5.14	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	133	27	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	5.14	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		127	0	152	666	173	114	20	0%	1.2	26.0%	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	3.72	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		167	0	200	874	228	150	26	0%	1.2	26.0%	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	3.72	4.70	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Thornton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	22.3%	15.0%	3.0%	—	5.17	22.2%	7.7%	20	+0.00	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	85
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	84
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	82
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	82
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	81
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Jake Haberer R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	27	SU	5.24	24.3%	16.0%	4.0%	.324	5.08	16.4%	0.9%	62	-0.16	3.46	183	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	81
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	80
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	80
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	80
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	79
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	79