Jesús Broca — OGILVIE

Jesús Broca P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 22 LHP 5'8" / 183 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%12.8%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%-2.7%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	2	2	3	12	2	0	0	100%	1.5	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	1.69	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	2	2	3	12	2	0	0	100%	1.5	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	1.69	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	2	2	3	12	2	0	0	100%	1.5	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	1.77	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	134	41	9	0	0%	1.8	21.6%	8.1%	13.4%	0.0%	4.45	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	30	134	41	9	0	0%	1.8	21.6%	8.1%	13.4%	0.0%	4.45	2.31	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	30	134	41	9	0	0%	1.8	30.6%	6.7%	23.9%	0.0%	4.45	1.29	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	78	341	72	42	4	0%	2.0	13.7%	14.8%	-1.1%	1.1%	3.68	4.44	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	78	341	72	42	4	0%	2.0	13.7%	14.8%	-1.1%	1.1%	3.68	4.44	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	78	341	72	42	4	0%	2.0	21.1%	12.3%	8.8%	1.2%	3.68	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	58	268	56	31	8	0%	1.5	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.6%	5.25	5.25	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	38	0	58	268	56	31	8	0%	1.5	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.6%	5.25	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	MIL	38	0	58	268	56	31	8	0%	1.5	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.0%	5.25	4.44	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	73	309	47	43	8	0%	1.0	15.4%	14.0%	1.4%	2.6%	5.48	5.37	-0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	71	0	75	316	53	41	8	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.0%	3.9%	2.6%	5.24	5.13	-0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	72	0	76	320	57	40	8	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.4%	5.3%	2.6%	5.07	4.99	-0.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	72	0	76	320	58	39	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.99	4.95	-0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	71	0	75	315	57	39	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.98	-0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	72	306	55	38	8	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.6%	5.4%	2.8%	5.04	5.07	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIL	66	0	69	292	52	37	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	2.9%	5.14	5.20	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIL	62	0	65	274	48	36	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	13.1%	4.3%	3.1%	5.28	5.38	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	35	0	37	156	24	22	4	0%	1.1	15.4%	14.0%	1.4%	2.6%	5.48	5.37	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	53	224	38	29	6	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.0%	3.9%	2.6%	5.24	5.13	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	59	0	62	262	46	33	7	0%	1.1	17.7%	12.4%	5.3%	2.6%	5.07	4.99	-0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	63	0	66	279	50	34	7	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	2.6%	4.99	4.95	-0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	52	36	8	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.98	-0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	64	0	67	283	51	36	8	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.6%	5.4%	2.8%	5.04	5.07	-0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIL	61	0	64	270	48	35	8	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.8%	4.9%	2.9%	5.14	5.20	-0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	45	34	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	13.1%	4.3%	3.1%	5.28	5.38	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		454	0	477	2014	353	257	55	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.7%	4.8%	2.7%	5.13	4.74	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	108	23	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.7%	4.8%	2.7%	5.13	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		96	2	170	755	123	96	13	2%	1.8	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	1.8%	4.34	4.31	-3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	2	200	888	145	112	16	2%	1.8	16.3%	12.6%	3.6%	1.8%	4.34	4.31	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesús Broca (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	12.8%	15.5%	2.6%	—	5.16	16.7%	3.5%	224	-0.63	—	—	—
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	85
Alex Katz L 2017 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	14.4%	18.0%	1.7%	.314	4.48	16.3%	1.2%	56	-0.63	2.69	240	85
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	85
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	84
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	84
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	83
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	83
Jason Richman L 2016 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	8.0%	12.7%	1.8%	.211	3.97	15.3%	6.6%	120	-1.06	3.67	164	82
Wes Helsabeck L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	23	SU	4.71	14.1%	17.6%	1.0%	.241	3.69	20.3%	12.8%	76	-1.02	2.93	153	82
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	81
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	81
Will Gilbert L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	23	SU	4.69	12.4%	11.9%	2.1%	.339	3.64	19.2%	10.3%	122	-1.05	2.92	141	80
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	80
Felix Carvallo L 2016 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	132	80
Justin Kelly L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	23	SU	4.96	13.4%	12.7%	2.5%	.421	3.71	19.4%	4.6%	123	-1.25	3.51	160	79
Ever Moya L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	23	SU	6.20	10.9%	18.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	170	79
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	78
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2022 · 4.70 FIP	22	SU	4.70	17.3%	15.9%	1.9%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	122	77
Joe Jacques L 2018 · 5.61 FIP	23	SU	5.61	12.1%	22.2%	1.3%	.265	4.00	18.7%	6.9%	113	-1.61	2.89	356	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	70	17.0%	13.0%	1.05	5.20
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39