Jesús Broca
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 22
LHP
5'8" / 183 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130139vR 149
ERA5.78
FIP5.78
K%12.8%
BB%15.7%
K-BB%-2.8%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.69 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.77 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 30 | 134 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 4.45 | 2.31 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 30 | 134 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 30.6% | 6.7% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 4.45 | 1.29 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 78 | 341 | 72 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 13.7% | 14.8% | -1.1% | 1.0% | 3.68 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 78 | 341 | 72 | 42 | 4 | 0% | 2.0 | 21.1% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 1.2% | 3.68 | 3.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 24 | 0 | 36 | 167 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.0% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.50 | 6.18 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 28 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.8% | 15.7% | -2.8% | 2.6% | 5.78 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.8% | 15.7% | -2.8% | 2.6% | 5.78 | 5.78 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 88 | 389 | 63 | 56 | 13 | — | — | 16.3% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.67 | 5.94 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 12.8% | 15.7% | -2.8% | 2.6% | 5.78 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 35 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 5.48 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 40 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 42 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 5.48 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.9% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 34 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 0 | 114 | 480 | 81 | 63 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 4.75 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 111 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 5.23 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 2 | 148 | 654 | 106 | 85 | 12 | 2% | 1.8 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 4.27 | 4.35 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 111 | 3 | 200 | 886 | 144 | 114 | 16 | 2% | 1.8 | 16.2% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 4.27 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesús Broca (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.78 | 12.8% | 15.7% | 2.6% | — | 5.15 | 16.7% | 3.5% | 167 | -0.63 | — | — | — |
| Cole Reynolds L 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 86 |
| Alex Katz L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.10 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.7% | .314 | 4.55 | 16.3% | 1.2% | 56 | -0.55 | 2.69 | 240 | 85 |
| Gerardo Concepción L 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.35 | 14.0% | 18.5% | 2.0% | .352 | 4.75 | 16.9% | 6.5% | 60 | -0.60 | 4.75 | 104 | 84 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .266 | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 101 | -1.53 | 3.54 | 146 | 84 |
| Chris Nunn L 2028 · 5.94 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.94 | 13.9% | 16.8% | 3.4% | .350 | 3.97 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 37 | -1.97 | 3.26 | 180 | 84 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 17.0% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .329 | 4.18 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 109 | -0.74 | 4.06 | 135 | 84 |
| Max Green L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.97 | 15.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .352 | 4.40 | 13.9% | 6.6% | 86 | -0.57 | 4.23 | 169 | 83 |
| Chris Reed L 2029 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 83 |
| Wes Helsabeck L 2027 · 4.71 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.71 | 14.1% | 17.6% | 1.0% | .241 | 3.69 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 76 | -1.02 | 2.94 | 153 | 82 |
| Jason Richman L 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.95 | 8.0% | 12.7% | 1.7% | .211 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 120 | -1.05 | 3.61 | 164 | 82 |
| Max Herrmann L 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.09 | 15.0% | 17.9% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.45 | 12.2% | 0.8% | 152 | -0.64 | 3.92 | 168 | 81 |
| Mason Miller L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.85 | 12.4% | 15.9% | 1.4% | .387 | 4.17 | 18.3% | 5.1% | 128 | -0.68 | 3.21 | 150 | 81 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.50 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.87 | 4.63 | 101 | 81 |
| Justin Kelly L 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.96 | 13.4% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .421 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 123 | -1.26 | 3.48 | 160 | 79 |
| Ever Moya L 2027 · 6.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.30 | 10.9% | 18.4% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 170 | 79 |
| Felix Cabrera L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.59 | 15.3% | 18.3% | 2.7% | .328 | 4.86 | 10.5% | -10.4% | 19 | -0.73 | 3.96 | 132 | 78 |
| Bryan King L 2028 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.31 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 2.6% | .317 | 2.89 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 77 | -2.42 | 2.49 | 226 | 78 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 78 |
| Wilgenis Alvarado L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.81 | 17.3% | 15.9% | 2.1% | .362 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 122 | 78 |
| Joe Jacques L 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.1% | 22.2% | 1.3% | .265 | 3.94 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 113 | -1.67 | 3.01 | 332 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 15.8% | 13.8% | 0.99 | 5.38 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |