Samuel Dutton

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 199 lbs A+ peak 0.5 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AOAK	5	3	8	3.52	2.19	41.9%	6.5%	—	K 41.9% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.15
2026	23	A+OAK	24	23	122	4.34	5.00	12.5%	8.2%	—	K 9.7% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.80
2027PROJ	24	MLBOAK	15	15	86	5.56	5.56	11.5%	9.4%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBOAK	8	8	48	5.31	5.23	14.5%	9.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBOAK	12	12	74	5.12	5.04	16.3%	8.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDerek Casey (age 23) · Mike Thompson (age 25) · Blaine Knight (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%11.5%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%2.1%

Proj IP86

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 86 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	5	3	8	31	13	2	1	60%	1.5	41.9%	6.5%	35.5%	3.2%	3.52	2.15	—
2025	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	5	3	8	31	13	2	1	60%	1.5	41.9%	6.5%	35.5%	3.2%	3.52	2.15	—
2025	22	A RAW	Stockton Ports	5	3	8	31	13	2	1	60%	1.5	41.9%	6.5%	35.5%	3.2%	3.52	2.19	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	24	23	122	534	67	44	18	96%	5.1	9.7%	9.5%	0.2%	4.2%	4.34	5.80	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	24	23	122	534	67	44	18	96%	5.1	9.7%	9.5%	0.2%	4.2%	4.34	5.80	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	24	23	122	534	67	44	18	96%	5.1	12.5%	8.2%	4.3%	3.4%	4.34	5.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	OAK	15	15	86	363	42	34	12	100%	5.7	11.5%	9.4%	2.1%	3.4%	5.56	5.56	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	112	471	68	42	16	100%	5.9	14.5%	9.0%	5.5%	3.3%	5.31	5.23	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	OAK	19	19	112	471	77	42	16	100%	5.9	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.04	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	110	464	77	41	15	100%	6.1	16.6%	8.9%	7.7%	3.3%	5.06	5.04	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	OAK	18	18	106	450	75	41	15	100%	5.9	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.4%	5.08	5.10	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	OAK	17	17	102	429	70	40	15	100%	6.0	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	3.6%	5.17	5.23	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	OAK	16	16	96	404	65	39	15	100%	6.0	16.0%	9.5%	6.4%	3.8%	5.32	5.41	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	48	203	29	18	7	100%	6.0	14.5%	9.0%	5.5%	3.3%	5.31	5.23	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	74	312	51	28	10	100%	6.2	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	3.3%	5.12	5.04	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	85	359	59	32	12	100%	6.1	16.6%	8.9%	7.7%	3.3%	5.06	5.04	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	90	380	63	34	13	100%	6.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.4%	5.08	5.10	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	OAK	15	15	89	376	61	35	13	100%	5.9	16.3%	9.2%	7.1%	3.6%	5.17	5.23	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	OAK	14	14	86	363	58	35	14	100%	6.1	16.0%	9.5%	6.4%	3.8%	5.32	5.41	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	471	1991	322	181	69	100%	6.0	16.2%	9.1%	7.1%	3.5%	5.17	4.80	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	137	77	29	100%	6.0	16.2%	9.1%	7.1%	3.5%	5.17	4.80	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		29	26	130	565	65	53	24	90%	4.5	11.4%	9.3%	2.1%	4.2%	4.29	5.60	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	869	99	81	36	90%	4.5	11.4%	9.3%	2.1%	4.2%	4.29	5.60	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Dutton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	11.5%	9.4%	3.4%	—	5.10	15.8%	6.8%	333	-0.46	—	—	—
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	88
Mike Thompson R 2006 · 4.95 FIP	25	SP	4.95	8.6%	6.4%	3.2%	.272	4.85	6.7%	0.0%	16	-0.10	4.85	108	87
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	86
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.22	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.02	3.57	306	86
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	86
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	85
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	85
Javier Solano R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SP	4.96	11.0%	6.2%	3.6%	.331	4.12	12.3%	7.3%	275	-0.84	3.67	506	85
Greg Reynolds R 2008 · 6.07 FIP	23	SP	6.07	7.5%	7.8%	4.8%	.294	4.78	12.5%	6.9%	32	-1.29	4.66	148	84
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	84
Brannon Easterling R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP	4.38	11.2%	6.7%	2.5%	.293	3.95	12.9%	5.1%	252	-0.43	3.50	334	84
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	84
Grahamm Wiest R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	23	SP-	5.13	11.1%	7.8%	3.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	120	83
Thomas Farr R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	12.9%	9.7%	3.8%	.278	5.47	11.8%	2.5%	209	+0.16	5.05	423	83
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	83
Jason Berken R 2009 · 4.92 FIP	25	SP	4.92	11.8%	7.5%	3.4%	.335	4.32	16.8%	9.6%	129	-0.60	3.37	468	83
Robinson Tejeda R 2006 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	12.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.294	4.43	21.4%	7.8%	214	-0.51	3.40	435	83
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	83
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	82
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	103	15.5%	9.1%	1.33	5.22
Brandon Claussen ('06)	1.6	105	16.0%	8.5%	1.37	5.04
Steve Parris ('03)	3.8	94	14.4%	8.7%	1.36	4.75
Jim Parque ('03)	2.7	109	13.4%	9.7%	1.29	5.42
Bob Milacki ('88-'96, 5 WAR*)	4.0	114	15.2%*	8.4%*	1.26*	4.64*
Bill Steele ('10-'14, -1 WAR*)	3.4	135	15.8%*	7.9%*	1.28*	5.22*
Bill Grahame ('08-'10, 0 WAR*)	1.7	116	17.7%*	9.3%*	1.52*	5.11*