Will Wagner
3B El Paso Chihuahuas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAATOR | 355 | .315/.438/.444 | 6 | 3 | 123 | — | .298/.387/.407 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLBTOR | 86 | .305/.337/.451 | 2 | 0 | 122 | 0.7 | |
| 2025 | 27 | AAASD | 160 | .269/.338/.428 | 5 | 2 | 74 | — | .240/.288/.367 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLBSD | 149 | .225/.324/.279 | 0 | 1 | 81 | -0.2 | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAASD | 303 | .254/.369/.377 | 6 | 4 | 74 | — | .219/.305/.306 |
| 2026 | 28 | MLBSD | 45 | .257/.422/.286 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 29 | MLBSD | 107 | .257/.337/.380 | 2 | 1 | 107 | 0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ56% MLB | 30 | MLBSD | 153 | .253/.333/.372 | 3 | 1 | 104 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ63% MLB | 31 | MLBSD | 159 | .249/.328/.362 | 3 | 0 | 100 | 0.2 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 117 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 299 | 388 | 436 | 824 | 137 | 402 | 25 | 12 | 371 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 298 | 251 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 35 | 57 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 251 | 363 | 386 | 749 | 135 | 302 | 19 | 12 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 199 | 163 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 398 | 405 | 803 | 129 | 339 | 21 | 16 | 361 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 60 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 346 | 433 | 712 | 1.145 | 365 | 405 | 20 | 12 | 486 | 215 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 28 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 577 | 607 | 692 | 1.299 | 115 | 625 | 7 | 7 | 575 | 250 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 234 | 207 | 64 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 47 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 309 | 386 | 507 | 894 | 198 | 370 | 20 | 11 | 392 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 25 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 312 | 520 | 375 | 895 | 62 | 333 | 4 | 28 | 421 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 86 | 82 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 305 | 337 | 451 | 788 | 146 | 359 | 19 | 5 | 349 | 122 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 355 | 286 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 59 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 315 | 438 | 444 | 882 | 129 | 339 | 10 | 17 | 394 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 149 | 129 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 324 | 279 | 603 | 54 | 287 | 19 | 11 | 283 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 145 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 269 | 338 | 428 | 765 | 159 | 283 | 12 | 9 | 341 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 45 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 422 | 286 | 708 | 29 | 321 | 16 | 22 | 344 | 111 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 303 | 252 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 52 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 254 | 369 | 377 | 746 | 123 | 297 | 17 | 14 | 337 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 280 | 246 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 344 | 337 | 681 | 81 | 316 | 18 | 11 | 313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +6 | 0.8 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 122 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 306 | 328 | 634 | 90 | 367 | 34 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 298 | 263 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 73 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 308 | 338 | 647 | 114 | 284 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 199 | 175 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 58 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 296 | 320 | 616 | 109 | 269 | 29 | 10 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 28 | 27 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 556 | 571 | 667 | 1.238 | 111 | 611 | 7 | 4 | 538 | 250 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 234 | 215 | 58 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 55 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 270 | 326 | 414 | 740 | 144 | 340 | 24 | 8 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 25 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 300 | 700 | 50 | 252 | 4 | 16 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 86 | 82 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 305 | 337 | 451 | 788 | 146 | 359 | 19 | 5 | 349 | 122 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 355 | 305 | 91 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 44 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 298 | 387 | 407 | 793 | 108 | 324 | 12 | 11 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 149 | 129 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 324 | 279 | 603 | 54 | 287 | 19 | 11 | 289 | 81 | -3 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 160 | 150 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 287 | 367 | 654 | 127 | 262 | 16 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 45 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 278 | 678 | 28 | 321 | 16 | 20 | 332 | 111 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.3 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | El Paso Chihuahuas | — | 303 | 265 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 62 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 305 | 306 | 611 | 87 | 268 | 20 | 10 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 122 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 238 | 306 | 328 | 634 | 90 | 368 | 34 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 117 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 299 | 388 | 436 | 824 | 137 | 402 | 25 | 12 | 371 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 557 | 492 | 105 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 147 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 213 | 298 | 315 | 613 | 102 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 557 | 466 | 126 | 25 | 5 | 13 | 74 | 110 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 270 | 383 | 429 | 812 | 159 | 326 | 20 | 13 | 363 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 262 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 59 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 294 | 353 | 424 | 777 | 130 | 365 | 21 | 8 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 287 | 249 | 84 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 50 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 337 | 420 | 518 | 938 | 181 | 399 | 17 | 12 | 413 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 387 | 116 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 300 | 377 | 416 | 793 | 116 | 335 | 14 | 10 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 368 | 115 | 21 | 2 | 8 | 63 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 312 | 418 | 446 | 864 | 133 | 343 | 12 | 14 | 385 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 279 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 305 | 326 | 631 | 93 | 275 | 17 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 309 | 274 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 48 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 331 | 358 | 689 | 109 | 285 | 16 | 10 | 313 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 301 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 321 | 309 | 630 | 83 | 279 | 20 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 348 | 287 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 52 | 59 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 254 | 376 | 366 | 742 | 111 | 300 | 17 | 15 | 338 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 134 | 121 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 240 | 306 | 331 | 637 | 91 | 367 | 34 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 557 | 493 | 105 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 147 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 213 | 298 | 314 | 612 | 101 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 261 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 59 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 295 | 353 | 425 | 778 | 130 | 359 | 21 | 8 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 390 | 116 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 297 | 377 | 413 | 790 | 115 | 331 | 14 | 10 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 277 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 305 | 329 | 634 | 94 | 274 | 17 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 303 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 224 | 321 | 307 | 628 | 83 | 275 | 20 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 390 | 116 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 44 | 60 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 297 | 377 | 413 | 790 | 115 | 331 | 14 | 10 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 277 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 53 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 305 | 329 | 634 | 94 | 274 | 17 | 9 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 348 | 303 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 224 | 321 | 307 | 628 | 83 | 275 | 20 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | SD | 45% | 380 | 336 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 37 | 70 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 261 | 340 | 386 | 726 | 125 | 305 | 18 | 10 | 326 | 107 | +3 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | 0.9 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | SD | 45% | 107 | 95 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 337 | 380 | 717 | 124 | 299 | 19 | 9 | 323 | 107 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +2 | 0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | SD | 56% | 272 | 242 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 257 | 337 | 378 | 714 | 120 | 303 | 19 | 10 | 322 | 104 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | SD | 63% | 254 | 226 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 332 | 367 | 699 | 114 | 300 | 19 | 9 | 315 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB MLE | SD | 67% | 235 | 209 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 325 | 353 | 678 | 106 | 296 | 20 | 9 | 307 | 94 | -2 | +0 | -4 | +1 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | SD | 56% | 153 | 136 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 333 | 372 | 705 | 119 | 298 | 19 | 10 | 318 | 104 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | SD | 63% | 159 | 142 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 328 | 362 | 690 | 113 | 295 | 19 | 9 | 312 | 100 | -0 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB CTX | SD | 67% | 156 | 139 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 322 | 348 | 670 | 105 | 291 | 19 | 10 | 304 | 94 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 748 | 663 | 168 | 32 | 2 | 11 | 76 | 140 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 335 | 357 | 692 | 104 | 305 | 19 | 10 | 312 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -9 | +6 | +16 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 147 | 28 | 2 | 10 | 66 | 122 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 255 | 336 | 363 | 699 | 108 | 306 | 19 | 10 | 312 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -8 | +5 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3075 | 2731 | 686 | 124 | 14 | 48 | 286 | 622 | 31 | 34 | 10 | 251 | 329 | 360 | 689 | 108 | 307 | 20 | 9 | 308 | 95 | +1 | +0 | -14 | +7 | +28 | 2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 577 | 145 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 60 | 131 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 251 | 329 | 359 | 688 | 107 | 308 | 20 | 9 | 308 | 95 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +4 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 303 PAwOBA .330 → .277 (−53)K% 17.2% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 9.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 21.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 4.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.08% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .330 → .277; ISO .123 → .097; BABIP .297 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 160 PAwOBA .332 → .278 (−54)K% 12.5% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.030 | ×1.003 | 20.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.80% | ÷1.042 | ×0.830 | ×1.030 | ×1.003 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×1.003 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .332 → .278; ISO .159 → .121; BABIP .283 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 355 PAwOBA .390 → .350 (−39)K% 10.4% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.42% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 12.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.62% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.91% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 26.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.80% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.022 | ×1.018 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.41% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .390 → .350; ISO .129 → .112; BABIP .339 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 234 PAwOBA .383 → .321 (−62)K% 20.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷1.049 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.38% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 23.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 9.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.058 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.322 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.64% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .383 → .321; ISO .198 → .150; BABIP .370 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 28 PAwOBA .560 → .538 (−22)K% 7.1% → 8.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 8.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 50.00% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 48.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.882 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 12.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .560 → .538; ISO .115 → .113; BABIP .625 → .611. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Astros · 25 PAwOBA .413 → .313 (−100)K% 4.0% → 5.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.058 | ×1.440 | — | — | 5.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.945 | 16.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 20.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.939 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.379 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .413 → .313; ISO .062 → .057; BABIP .333 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 298 PAwOBA .332 → .281 (−51)K% 19.1% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.13% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.74% | ÷1.084 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.02% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 21.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.986 | ×0.840 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.044 | ×0.940 | ×1.048 | ×1.012 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.41% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 89, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .332 → .281; ISO .135 → .114; BABIP .302 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 199 PAwOBA .358 → .266 (−92)K% 20.6% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.60% | ÷0.927 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.08% | ÷0.933 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 10.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.05% | ÷1.031 | ×0.870 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 22.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.131 | ×0.780 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 3.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×0.988 | 0.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.972 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.93% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 85, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .358 → .266; ISO .129 → .104; BABIP .339 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).