Jack Mahoney

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #653MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	23	22	120	3.90	3.02	23.1%	6.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.91
2025	23	AACOL	24	24	105	5.93	4.24	17.1%	9.7%	—	K 13.9% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.50
2026	24	MIX3 levels	22	22	103	3.31	3.37	19.6%	9.4%	—	K 16.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.80
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	24	24	140	4.73	4.73	15.7%	9.7%	0.3
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCOL	10	10	61	4.83	4.80	17.4%	9.4%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCOL	14	14	87	4.81	4.82	17.7%	9.4%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Ext$1M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command50FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBlayne Weller (age 25) · Carlos Pimentel (age 25) · Chase Solesky (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%15.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD4050

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	7.32	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	1.0	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	9.00	8.10	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	17.3%	7.1%	10.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	497	115	30	10	96%	5.2	23.1%	6.0%	17.1%	2.0%	3.90	3.02	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	2.2%	5.93	4.50	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	13.9%	10.7%	3.2%	2.2%	5.93	4.50	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Hartford Yard Goats	24	24	105	473	81	46	11	100%	4.4	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	2.3%	5.93	4.24	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	103	448	88	42	6	100%	4.7	16.2%	9.7%	6.6%	1.5%	3.31	3.80	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	103	448	88	42	6	100%	4.7	16.2%	9.7%	6.6%	1.5%	3.31	3.80	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	103	448	88	42	6	100%	4.7	19.6%	9.4%	10.3%	1.3%	3.31	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	24	24	140	591	93	57	15	100%	5.8	15.7%	9.7%	6.0%	2.5%	4.73	4.73	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	140	591	103	56	15	100%	6.1	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	2.5%	4.62	4.59	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	138	582	103	55	15	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	2.6%	4.59	4.60	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	134	565	101	53	15	100%	6.1	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	2.7%	4.63	4.66	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	128	540	95	52	16	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.78	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	120	507	88	50	16	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.96	-0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	473	80	49	16	100%	5.9	16.9%	10.3%	6.7%	3.3%	5.04	5.16	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	61	258	45	24	7	100%	6.1	17.4%	9.4%	8.0%	2.9%	4.83	4.80	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	87	367	65	34	11	100%	6.2	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.81	4.82	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	101	426	76	40	13	100%	5.9	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	3.1%	4.86	4.89	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	104	439	78	42	15	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	3.3%	4.96	5.02	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	103	435	75	43	15	100%	6.1	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.12	5.22	-0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	99	418	71	43	16	100%	6.2	16.9%	10.3%	6.7%	3.8%	5.32	5.44	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	93	557	2350	411	228	78	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	3.3%	5.00	4.67	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	82	28	100%	6.0	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	3.3%	5.00	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		71	68	330	1428	227	130	31	96%	4.6	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	2.2%	4.39	4.09	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	865	138	79	19	96%	4.6	15.9%	9.1%	6.8%	2.2%	4.39	4.09	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Mahoney (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	15.7%	9.7%	2.5%	—	4.62	17.6%	8.2%	412	-0.11	—	—	—
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	89
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	88
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	14.9%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.43	16.0%	8.7%	271	-0.34	4.07	567	87
Carter Spivey R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	14.2%	10.6%	1.4%	.264	6.14	14.9%	3.5%	30	+2.12	4.02	155	86
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	85
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	85
Kyle Haynes R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SP	4.58	15.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	240	85
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	85
James Needy R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	14.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.326	2.82	18.1%	8.2%	36	-1.90	2.82	167	85
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	84
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	83
Asher Wojciechowski R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	26	SP	4.30	15.7%	8.5%	2.6%	.323	4.61	20.4%	12.2%	287	+0.31	3.15	678	83
Baron Stuart R 2024 · 3.57 FIP	25	SP	3.57	17.1%	10.5%	1.1%	.301	4.97	18.1%	1.4%	96	+1.40	3.57	306	83
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	83
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	83
Claudio Vargas R 2003 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	12.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.251	5.02	16.5%	8.5%	418	+0.27	3.66	765	82
Scarlyn Reyes R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	25	SP	4.16	13.5%	10.4%	1.6%	.296	4.65	13.8%	3.2%	189	+0.49	4.16	317	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	130	17.2%	9.7%	1.07	4.73
Steve McCatty ('77-'85, 6 WAR*)	5.9	149	16.4%*	10.1%*	1.20*	4.49*
Roger Pavlik ('98)	3.7	124	16.2%	10.8%	1.03	4.58
Jeff Locke ('17)	3.4	113	16.4%	9.0%	0.96	4.59
Socks Seibold ('16-'33, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	15.4%*	9.6%*	1.16*	4.69*
Manny Salvo ('39-'43, 4 WAR*)	3.6	144	17.2%*	9.2%*	1.19*	4.37*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80