Luke Savage

P Hub City Spartanburgers

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	30	47	3.80	3.23	20.8%	10.6%	—	K 15.7% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.07
2025	23	ATEX	26	36	1.49	2.88	22.9%	10.4%	—	K 17.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.70
2026	24	A+TEX	39	58	5.46	4.42	19.1%	12.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.28
2027PROJ	25	MLBTEX	33	35	5.33	5.33	16.8%	13.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBTEX	21	22	5.18	5.15	18.3%	12.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBTEX	30	32	5.12	5.13	18.7%	12.6%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTyler Burch (age 25) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Juan Paniagua (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%16.8%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%3.6%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.00	2.50	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	3	0	3	14	4	2	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	6.00	2.43	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	47	207	43	22	2	0%	1.6	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	1.3%	3.80	4.07	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	47	207	43	22	2	0%	1.6	15.7%	12.5%	3.2%	1.3%	3.80	4.07	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	47	207	43	22	2	0%	1.6	20.8%	10.6%	10.1%	1.0%	3.80	3.23	—
2025	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	26	0	36	144	33	15	1	0%	1.4	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	0.9%	1.49	3.70	—
2025	23	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	26	0	36	144	33	15	1	0%	1.4	17.0%	12.3%	4.7%	0.9%	1.49	3.70	—
2025	23	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	26	0	36	144	33	15	1	0%	1.4	22.9%	10.4%	12.5%	0.7%	1.49	2.88	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	39	0	58	256	49	32	6	0%	1.5	14.7%	14.4%	0.4%	2.9%	5.46	5.28	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	39	0	58	256	49	32	6	0%	1.5	14.7%	14.4%	0.4%	2.9%	5.46	5.28	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Hub City Spartanburgers	39	0	58	256	49	32	6	0%	1.5	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	2.3%	5.46	4.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TEX	33	0	35	148	25	20	4	0%	1.1	16.8%	13.2%	3.6%	2.9%	5.33	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	52	219	40	28	6	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	2.9%	5.18	5.15	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	51	216	40	27	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.0%	5.12	5.13	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	TEX	21	0	22	93	17	12	3	0%	1.0	18.3%	12.8%	5.5%	2.9%	5.18	5.15	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	32	135	25	17	4	0%	1.1	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	3.0%	5.12	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	0	54	230	43	29	7	0%	1.0	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	2.9%	5.14	4.76	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	158	106	26	0%	1.1	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	2.9%	5.14	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		98	0	144	621	99	82	11	0%	1.5	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	1.8%	3.93	4.45	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	861	137	114	16	0%	1.5	15.9%	13.3%	2.6%	1.8%	3.93	4.45	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Savage (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	16.8%	13.2%	2.9%	—	5.14	18.5%	5.8%	103	-0.19	—	—	—
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	89
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	89
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	89
Rafael Dolis R 2012 · 5.19 FIP	24	SU	5.19	13.9%	12.7%	3.0%	.287	4.02	15.8%	1.5%	66	-1.17	2.80	200	88
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	87
Rhiner Cruz R 2012 · 4.80 FIP	25	SU	4.80	18.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.335	4.81	10.2%	-1.0%	21	+0.01	3.21	127	87
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	87
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	87
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	86
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	86
Vinnie Chulk R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	17.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.308	3.95	16.9%	9.6%	171	-0.31	2.97	271	86
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	86
Isrrael De La Cruz R 2022 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	16.7%	12.5%	2.0%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	100	86
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	85
Owen Holt R 2024 · 4.52 FIP	25	SU	4.52	15.1%	12.1%	2.1%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	145	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	18.1%	12.8%	1.13	5.20
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88