Cullen Kafka prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Cullen Kafka P Spokane Indians

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%19.9%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	0	5	19	5	0	0	0%	1.2	26.3%	0.0%	26.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.88	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	0	5	19	5	0	0	0%	1.2	26.3%	0.0%	26.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2022	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	13	81	375	80	32	3	68%	4.3	15.8%	10.1%	5.7%	1.1%	5.11	3.64	—
2022	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	19	13	81	375	80	32	3	68%	4.3	21.3%	8.5%	12.8%	0.8%	5.11	2.79	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	6	67	304	56	32	7	27%	3.0	14.2%	12.1%	2.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.95	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	22	6	67	304	56	32	7	27%	3.0	14.2%	12.1%	2.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.95	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	22	6	67	304	56	32	7	27%	3.0	18.4%	10.5%	7.9%	2.3%	4.57	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	10.7%	9.2%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	COL	43	0	46	192	39	21	6	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	44	184	37	20	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.86	4.92	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	COL	16	0	17	72	14	8	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.80	4.83	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	COL	23	0	24	101	20	11	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.86	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	0	41	171	35	18	5	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	89	25	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		45	19	153	698	107	75	12	42%	3.4	15.4%	10.7%	4.7%	1.8%	4.71	4.14	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	25	200	912	140	97	16	42%	3.4	15.4%	10.7%	4.7%	1.8%	4.71	4.14	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cullen Kafka (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	19.9%	10.7%	3.0%	—	4.87	20.1%	9.4%	89	+0.08	—	—	—
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	78
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	77
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	77
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	77
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	77
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	77
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	76
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	74
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	74
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	74
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	73
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	73
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	20.1%	10.7%	1.20	4.82
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41