Jack Moss
1B Asheville Tourists| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | ACIN | 289 | .262/.347/.306 | 0 | 2 | 57 | — | .232/.291/.266 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+/ROKCIN | 140 | .322/.416/.390 | 0 | 0 | 90 | — | .277/.351/.334 |
| 2026 | 24 | AA/A+HOU | 367 | .321/.416/.442 | 5 | 9 | 91 | — | .267/.327/.371 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBHOU | 1 | .211/.277/.284 | 0 | 0 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBHOU | 72 | .214/.281/.297 | 1 | 1 | 63 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 38 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 500 | 333 | 833 | 409 | 18 | 24 | 380 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 46 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 282 | 364 | 333 | 697 | 51 | 393 | 28 | 11 | 309 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 252 | 66 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 262 | 347 | 306 | 653 | 44 | 322 | 18 | 11 | 301 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 110 | 92 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 337 | 430 | 380 | 810 | 43 | 419 | 19 | 12 | 365 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | — | 30 | 26 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 367 | 423 | 790 | 154 | 318 | 13 | 13 | 355 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 26 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 286 | 423 | 429 | 852 | 143 | 375 | 19 | 19 | 387 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 341 | 287 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 54 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 324 | 416 | 443 | 858 | 118 | 371 | 16 | 13 | 377 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 38 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 417 | 300 | 717 | 368 | 24 | 16 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 46 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 195 | 250 | 220 | 470 | 24 | 303 | 39 | 7 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 263 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 291 | 266 | 557 | 34 | 302 | 24 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 110 | 96 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 374 | 344 | 718 | 42 | 381 | 25 | 8 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Reds | — | 30 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 111 | 233 | 20 | 10 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 261 | 346 | 391 | 737 | 130 | 329 | 23 | 12 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 341 | 306 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 71 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 268 | 325 | 369 | 695 | 101 | 309 | 21 | 8 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 84 | 71 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 239 | 325 | 254 | 579 | 14 | 362 | 33 | 11 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 84 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 303 | 425 | 333 | 758 | 30 | 400 | 24 | 17 | 341 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 263 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 232 | 291 | 266 | 557 | 34 | 310 | 24 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 252 | 66 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 262 | 347 | 306 | 653 | 44 | 322 | 18 | 11 | 301 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 123 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 350 | 325 | 676 | 49 | 362 | 23 | 9 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 140 | 118 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 322 | 416 | 390 | 806 | 68 | 396 | 18 | 12 | 363 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 328 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 77 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 265 | 327 | 366 | 693 | 101 | 322 | 21 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 367 | 308 | 99 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 50 | 59 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 321 | 416 | 442 | 858 | 120 | 372 | 16 | 14 | 378 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 84 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 325 | 240 | 565 | 13 | 332 | 33 | 11 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 265 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 291 | 264 | 555 | 34 | 302 | 24 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 125 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 350 | 320 | 670 | 48 | 349 | 23 | 9 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 334 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 77 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 260 | 327 | 359 | 686 | 99 | 310 | 21 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 289 | 265 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 230 | 291 | 264 | 555 | 34 | 302 | 24 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 140 | 125 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 272 | 350 | 320 | 670 | 48 | 349 | 23 | 9 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 334 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 77 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 260 | 327 | 359 | 686 | 99 | 310 | 21 | 8 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 380 | 345 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 83 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 208 | 275 | 280 | 554 | 72 | 262 | 22 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -19 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 277 | 284 | 561 | 73 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 58 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 30% | 238 | 216 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 211 | 278 | 293 | 572 | 82 | 263 | 22 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +5 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 30% | 72 | 66 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 281 | 297 | 578 | 83 | 267 | 22 | 8 | 264 | 63 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 72 | 66 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 278 | 303 | 581 | 91 | 265 | 22 | 8 | 264 | 72 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 126 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 144 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 211 | 277 | 302 | 579 | 91 | 264 | 22 | 8 | 264 | 72 | -29 | +2 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1328 | 1191 | 285 | 45 | 4 | 10 | 109 | 305 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 239 | 305 | 309 | 614 | 70 | 306 | 23 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -21 | +1 | +0 | -8 | +10 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 140 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 149 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 240 | 306 | 310 | 616 | 70 | 307 | 23 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -30 | +2 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 341 PAwOBA .378 → .302 (−75)K% 15.8% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 20.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 25.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.85% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .378 → .302; ISO .118 → .100; BABIP .371 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 26 PAwOBA .378 → .312 (−66)K% 19.2% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 13.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 17.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 15.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .378 → .312; ISO .143 → .123; BABIP .375 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Dayton Dragons · 110 PAwOBA .366 → .318 (−48)K% 19.1% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.09% | ÷0.999 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.82% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.03% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 34.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.928 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.994 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 97, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .366 → .318; ISO .043 → .038; BABIP .419 → .381. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Reds · 30 PAwOBA .346 → .241 (−105)K% 13.3% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.010 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.931 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 8.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 10.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.963 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 12.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.252 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 102, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .241; ISO .154 → .109; BABIP .318 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 289 PAwOBA .296 → .253 (−43)K% 17.6% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.07% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.86% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×0.990 | 26.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×0.990 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×0.990 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 106, 3B 84, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .296 → .253; ISO .044 → .036; BABIP .322 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Reds · 46 PAwOBA .315 → .219 (−96)K% 28.3% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.26% | ÷1.027 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.040 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 6.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.62% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 27.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.038 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 105, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .315 → .219; ISO .051 → .033; BABIP .393 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ADaytona Tortugas · 38 PAwOBA .392 → .338 (−55)K% 18.4% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.42% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 23.68% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | — | 16.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.920 | — | — | 40.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.100 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 117, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .392 → .338; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .409 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).