Ariel Almonte — OGILVIE

Ariel AlmonteOF Dayton Dragons

Age 22 L/R 6'4" / 219 lbs A+ HR +9%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

wRC+†17

AVG/OBP/SLG.155 / .226 / .260

PA320

HR6

K%45

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

35→35

SPD

40→40

EYE

50↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

-1.4peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-11M		$-48M	-$37M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$37M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	196	171	33	6	1	3	17	75	7	15	6	.193	.292	.292	.585	.099	.319	38	9	.257	55	-10	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	164	148	26	6	0	4	13	70	3	1	0	.176	.256	.297	.553	.122	.297	43	8	.248	48	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	383	346	47	10	1	3	31	188	4	4	0	.136	.215	.197	.412	.061	.280	49	8	.194	7	-40	+1	+0	-2	+11	-3.2
2024	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	506	450	63	15	1	14	49	233	2	3	1	.140	.228	.271	.499	.131	.236	46	10	.224	30	-40	+0	+0	-3	+14	-2.9
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	359	335	49	13	2	4	21	154	1	3	1	.146	.199	.233	.432	.087	.251	43	6	.196	8	-37	+0	+0	-2	+10	-3.0
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	30	29	3	1	0	0	1	15	0	0	0	.103	.133	.138	.271	.034	.214	50	3	.108	-59	-5	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.5
ROS	22	MLB	CIN	290	265	41	10	1	5	22	131	1	2	1	.155	.222	.257	.479	.102	.270	45	8	.218	25	-24	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.8
TOT	22	MLB	CIN	320	294	44	11	1	5	23	146	1	2	1	.150	.214	.245	.459	.095	.271	46	7	.208	17	-30	+0	+0	-2	+9	-2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 11%	CIN	396	359	60	14	1	8	32	155	2	3	1	.167	.239	.279	.518	.111	.261	39	8	.237	39	-27	+0	+0	-2	+11	-1.8
2028	24	MLB 26%	CIN	455	411	71	16	1	10	38	171	3	4	1	.173	.248	.290	.537	.117	.264	38	8	.247	48	-27	+0	+0	-3	+13	-1.7
2029	25	MLB 44%	CIN	487	439	79	17	2	12	42	179	3	5	1	.180	.256	.310	.566	.130	.267	37	9	.254	53	-26	+1	+0	-3	+14	-1.5
2030	26	MLB 64%	CIN	505	453	83	18	2	12	44	184	3	5	1	.183	.260	.311	.571	.128	.268	36	9	.258	56	-25	+1	+0	-3	+14	-1.4
2031	27	MLB 89%	CIN	512	459	83	18	2	12	45	187	3	5	1	.181	.258	.307	.566	.126	.268	37	9	.258	56	-26	+1	+0	-3	+15	-1.4
2032	28	MLB	CIN	512	458	83	18	2	12	46	188	3	4	0	.181	.260	.308	.568	.127	.268	37	9	.257	55	-26	+1	-1	-3	+15	-1.5
2033	29	MLB	CIN	504	451	82	18	2	12	45	186	3	4	0	.182	.261	.310	.571	.129	.266	37	9	.255	53	-27	+1	-1	-3	+14	-1.6
2034	30	MLB	CIN	496	446	77	17	1	11	44	185	3	3	0	.173	.252	.289	.541	.117	.265	37	9	.252	51	-28	+1	-2	-3	+14	-1.8
2035	31	MLB	CIN	483	434	75	16	1	11	43	182	3	1	0	.173	.252	.290	.542	.118	.263	38	9	.248	48	-28	+0	-3	-3	+14	-2.1
2036	32	MLB	CIN	465	418	70	15	1	10	41	178	3	1	0	.167	.247	.280	.527	.112	.261	38	9	.243	44	-29	+0	-4	-3	+13	-2.3
2037	33	MLB	CIN	436	392	65	14	1	9	39	170	2	1	0	.166	.245	.276	.520	.110	.259	39	9	.238	40	-29	+0	-4	-3	+12	-2.4
2038	34	MLB	CIN	390	351	56	12	1	7	34	155	2	0	0	.160	.238	.259	.497	.100	.256	40	9	.232	35	-28	+0	-5	-2	+11	-2.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7539	6786	1143	253	23	159	646	2971	51	64	14	.168	.246	.283	.529	.114	.266	39	9	.241	43	-489	+7	-20	-45	+214	-34.0
/ 162G	—			650	585	99	22	2	14	56	256	4	6	1	.169	.246	.285	.532	.116	.267	39	9	.241	43	-42	+1	-2	-4	+18	-2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	196	162	45	9	1	5	26	52	7	15	6	.278	.400	.438	.838	.160	.377	27	13	.378	147	+10	+1	—	—	+6	1.7
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	164	140	40	11	0	6	21	49	3	1	0	.286	.390	.493	.883	.207	.400	30	13	.392	158	+11	+0	—	—	+5	1.6
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	383	335	68	15	1	5	42	133	4	4	0	.203	.299	.299	.598	.096	.317	35	11	.277	70	-13	+1	—	—	+11	-0.1
2024	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	506	432	86	21	1	20	67	163	2	3	1	.199	.309	.391	.701	.192	.260	32	13	.313	97	-1	+0	—	—	+14	1.3
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	359	326	63	17	2	7	30	121	1	3	1	.193	.263	.322	.585	.129	.280	34	8	.264	60	-16	+0	—	—	+10	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Almonte (OGILVIE)	22	20	35	40	35	.155/.226/.260	.105	.274	6	2	45%	8%	30	-1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Bracho 2023 · A	22	30→38	42→45	44→40	38	.161/.227/.260	.099	.254	10	4	39%	7%	30	-3.1	.194/.258/.324	.130	.261	16	5	31%	7%	59	-1.1	.192/.255/.327	.134	.243	18	4	29%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Andry Arias 2022 · A	22	38	42→40	46→40	39	.187/.254/.288	.101	.287	10	7	36%	7%	48	-1.9	.193/.256/.289	.096	.301	8	5	36%	7%	49	-1.8	.160/.230/.252	.091	.253	7	3	37%	7%	25	-1.2
✕Agustin Ruiz 2022 · AA	22	36	45→50	42→40	38	.186/.247/.301	.115	.273	14	4	36%	6%	49	-1.8	.187/.257/.327	.140	.263	18	4	35%	7%	60	-1.0	.169/.247/.302	.133	.232	16	2	34%	7%	49	-1.1
✕Rixon Wingrove 2022 · A	22	36→34	45→50	46→40	37	.186/.246/.305	.120	.280	13	4	37%	6%	50	-1.8	.190/.254/.333	.143	.298	18	4	40%	6%	60	-1.0	.183/.253/.339	.156	.268	21	3	39%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Luis Toribio 2023 · A	22	36→39	45→50	45→40	38	.178/.247/.297	.119	.301	13	3	43%	8%	47	-1.9	.181/.249/.311	.130	.297	16	3	42%	8%	53	-1.5	.165/.238/.298	.133	.259	17	1	41%	8%	41	-1.3
✕Yeicok Calderon 2014 · A	22	35	46→45	45	33	.180/.227/.303	.123	.290	14	5	42%	6%	40	-2.4	.206/.250/.323	.117	.324	12	6	38%	5%	54	-1.4	.210/.245/.331	.121	.324	12	5	38%	4%	52	-0.6
✕Jhailyn Ortiz 2021 · A	22	31→35	46→50	42→45	32	.167/.225/.287	.120	.280	15	4	44%	6%	36	-2.7	.192/.258/.337	.145	.299	19	6	40%	6%	63	-0.8	.184/.253/.325	.140	.284	19	5	40%	7%	54	-1.0
✕Ignacio Valdez 2017 · A	22	32	45	45→50	37	.169/.233/.291	.121	.258	13	5	38%	6%	40	-2.4	.177/.238/.289	.112	.315	12	4	45%	7%	42	-2.3	.137/.165/.201	.064	.247	4	0	45%	3%	-17	-1.2
✕Francisco Del Valle 2021 · A	22	35→29	41→45	46→40	43	.177/.255/.279	.102	.261	8	5	33%	8%	46	-2.0	.188/.254/.304	.116	.268	12	5	33%	7%	53	-1.5	.167/.233/.278	.111	.231	14	3	33%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Chuckie Jones 2014 · A	22	37→40	43→45	44→50	35	.183/.239/.290	.106	.297	11	8	40%	6%	42	-2.3	.202/.255/.322	.120	.297	14	9	35%	6%	57	-1.2	.199/.253/.321	.122	.279	15	10	33%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Hudson Head 2023 · A	22	39→37	42→45	45	37	.180/.260/.283	.103	.317	10	8	43%	8%	50	-1.7	.177/.240/.288	.111	.290	11	9	40%	6%	42	-2.3	.160/.218/.285	.126	.244	13	8	39%	6%	30	-1.6
✕Chad McClanahan 2019 · A	21	38→31	41→40	41→45	37	.183/.244/.275	.093	.302	8	5	40%	7%	40	-2.4	.174/.251/.249	.075	.283	6	6	37%	8%	37	-2.7	.143/.230/.201	.058	.243	6	5	40%	9%	14	-2.6
✕Shane Matheny 2019 · A	23	37→42	39→45	41→50	35	.184/.237/.261	.077	.294	8	5	39%	6%	33	-2.9	.183/.239/.277	.094	.288	10	4	38%	6%	38	-2.6	.191/.281/.316	.125	.300	14	9	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Wladimir Galindo 2019 · A	22	40→33	40→45	40	34	.196/.240/.287	.091	.304	8	3	37%	5%	40	-2.4	.195/.241/.279	.084	.313	7	6	38%	5%	39	-2.5	.173/.215/.230	.057	.281	5	4	39%	5%	11	-1.4
✕Brenden Webb 2012 · A	22	38→37	38→45	47→50	42	.179/.255/.256	.077	.296	6	9	39%	9%	40	-2.4	.182/.261/.296	.114	.300	11	10	40%	9%	54	-1.4	.168/.246/.293	.124	.274	13	10	41%	8%	44	-1.5
✕Shervyen Newton 2021 · A	22	37→30	42→45	43→40	34	.178/.235/.276	.098	.311	10	4	44%	6%	37	-2.7	.171/.234/.278	.107	.323	11	4	47%	7%	37	-2.6	.156/.226/.276	.120	.279	13	2	46%	7%	31	-1.6
✕Jose Medina 2018 · A	23	39	44→45	41→45	38	.196/.249/.312	.116	.278	12	4	33%	6%	52	-1.6	.213/.264/.322	.109	.283	11	5	27%	6%	60	-1.0	.217/.265/.321	.103	.267	9	2	22%	6%	56	-0.6
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	.177/.225/.258	.082	.279	7	4	38%	5%	27	-3.3	.181/.235/.260	.079	.301	7	5	40%	6%	32	-3.0	.113/.162/.125	.012	.213	0	0	44%	5%	-37	-1.5
✕Leandro Emiliani 2022 · A	22	39	42→50	46→30	41	.188/.265/.291	.103	.299	11	4	38%	8%	54	-1.4	.184/.242/.294	.110	.285	11	3	37%	6%	44	-2.1	.169/.229/.278	.109	.259	11	1	37%	6%	33	-1.5
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→38	39→45	47→45	42	.173/.251/.266	.093	.273	5	7	36%	8%	42	-2.3	.196/.261/.313	.117	.273	11	6	31%	7%	58	-1.2	.196/.262/.319	.124	.258	14	6	29%	7%	58	-0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)