Ariel Almonte — OGILVIE

Ariel AlmonteOF Dayton Dragons

Age 23 L/R 6'4" / 219 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.159 / .223 / .273

PA1

HR0

K%38

BB%7

BABIP236

ISO99

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	196	162	45	9	1	5	26	52	7	15	6	278	400	438	838	160	377	27	13	378	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	164	140	40	11	0	6	21	49	3	1	0	286	390	493	883	207	400	30	13	392	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	383	335	68	15	1	5	42	133	4	4	0	203	299	299	598	96	317	35	11	277	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	506	432	86	21	1	20	67	163	2	3	1	199	309	391	701	192	260	32	13	313	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	359	326	63	17	2	7	30	121	1	3	1	193	263	322	585	129	280	34	8	264	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	112	99	15	2	0	5	11	37	1	0	0	152	243	323	566	172	172	33	10	256	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	196	169	30	6	1	2	19	64	7	15	6	178	287	260	548	83	253	33	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	164	148	27	7	0	4	13	70	3	1	0	182	262	311	573	128	301	43	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	383	347	51	10	1	3	30	180	4	4	0	147	223	207	431	61	279	47	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	506	453	63	14	1	13	46	224	2	3	1	139	222	260	482	121	223	44	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	359	334	51	13	2	5	22	154	1	3	1	153	207	249	456	96	252	43	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	112	102	12	1	0	4	8	47	1	0	0	118	189	245	434	127	149	42	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	196	169	30	6	1	2	19	64	7	15	6	178	287	260	548	83	269	33	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	196	162	45	9	1	5	26	52	7	15	6	278	400	438	838	160	377	27	13	378	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	164	148	27	7	0	4	13	70	3	1	0	182	262	311	573	128	311	43	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	164	140	40	11	0	6	21	49	3	1	0	286	390	493	883	207	400	30	13	392	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	383	347	51	10	1	3	30	180	4	4	0	147	223	207	431	61	289	47	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	383	335	68	15	1	5	42	133	4	4	0	203	299	299	598	96	317	35	11	277	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	506	453	63	14	1	13	46	224	2	3	1	139	222	260	482	121	226	44	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	506	432	86	21	1	20	67	163	2	3	1	199	309	391	701	192	260	32	13	313	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	359	334	51	13	2	5	22	154	1	3	1	153	207	249	456	96	260	43	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	359	326	63	17	2	7	30	121	1	3	1	193	263	322	585	129	280	34	8	264	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	112	102	12	1	0	4	8	47	1	0	0	118	189	245	434	127	154	42	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	112	99	15	2	0	5	11	37	1	0	0	152	243	323	566	172	172	33	10	256	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	196	168	30	6	1	2	19	64	7	15	6	179	287	262	549	83	253	33	10	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	164	147	27	7	0	4	13	70	3	1	0	184	262	313	575	129	301	43	8	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	383	346	51	10	1	3	30	180	4	4	0	147	223	208	431	61	279	47	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	506	453	63	14	1	13	46	224	2	3	1	139	222	260	482	121	223	44	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	359	333	51	13	2	5	22	154	1	3	1	153	207	249	457	96	252	43	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	112	102	12	1	0	4	8	47	1	0	0	118	189	245	434	127	149	42	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	506	453	63	14	1	13	46	224	2	3	1	139	222	260	482	121	223	44	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	359	333	51	13	2	5	22	154	1	3	1	153	207	249	457	96	252	43	6	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	112	102	12	1	0	4	8	47	1	0	0	118	189	245	434	127	149	42	7	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	305	279	43	9	1	6	22	116	1	2	1	157	221	266	487	109	236	38	7	222	36	-23	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	159	223	273	496	114	236	0	0	225	36	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	206	188	32	7	1	5	15	76	1	1	0	163	229	278	507	115	240	37	7	230	42	-14	+0	+0	-1	+4	-1.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	62	57	9	2	0	1	5	23	0	0	0	165	230	285	516	120	241	37	8	233	42	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	62	57	9	2	0	1	5	23	0	0	0	158	226	246	471	88	242	37	8	233	32	-4	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	94	21	0	10	52	241	0	0	0	157	225	242	467	85	242	37	8	233	32	-45	+0	+0	-4	+14	-3.6
Career	—	MLE		—	2080	1882	288	63	6	39	164	874	20	28	8	153	228	255	484	102	254	42	8	215	32	-26	+0	+0	-2	+8	-2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	90	20	2	12	51	273	6	9	2	153	228	255	483	102	254	42	8	215	32	-47	+1	+0	-4	+14	-3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Almonte (OGILVIE)	23	20	35	40	35	156/220/264	108	236	3	1	38%	7%	36	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Francisco Del Valle 2022 · A	23	35→29	44→45	44→40	43	181/258/300	119	262	12	5	34%	8%	59	-1.7	201/257/304	103	282	10	7	31%	6%	58	-1.7	171/193/224	53	226	6	4	27%	3%	11	-0.9
✕Garrett Spain 2024 · A	23	37→35	43→45	46→50	40	187/252/299	113	282	10	9	36%	7%	56	-1.9	173/235/288	115	249	13	12	34%	7%	47	-2.5	162/228/283	121	225	15	14	34%	7%	41	-2.3
✕Leandro Emiliani 2023 · A	23	35	45	48→30	38	182/244/301	119	271	13	3	36%	7%	53	-2.1	192/252/293	101	301	9	4	37%	7%	54	-2.0	162/224/237	75	264	6	0	38%	7%	32	-1.6
✕Travis Maezes 2017 · A	23	32	45	41→45	32	167/222/287	120	295	14	3	46%	6%	42	-2.9	185/243/300	115	317	13	6	43%	7%	53	-2.1	154/217/258	104	257	13	4	44%	7%	32	-1.6
✕Pat Porter 2017 · A	24	31	43→45	47→45	37	166/233/275	109	251	11	7	37%	6%	43	-2.8	190/251/288	98	289	9	8	35%	6%	53	-2.1	173/233/241	69	263	7	5	35%	6%	33	-1.3
✕Andry Arias 2022 · A	22	38	42→40	44→40	39	189/255/293	104	286	10	7	36%	7%	55	-1.9	195/261/291	96	302	7	6	35%	7%	57	-1.8	163/238/257	94	255	6	3	36%	8%	38	-1.1
✕Robby Martin Jr. 2023 · A	23	38	40	42→50	33	183/231/278	95	303	7	7	40%	5%	42	-2.9	204/247/297	93	293	8	11	32%	5%	52	-2.2	205/245/291	86	281	9	13	30%	5%	47	-1.3
✕Michel Triana 2023 · A	23	35→27	44→45	49→50	35	178/240/295	117	283	12	9	40%	6%	51	-2.3	178/237/278	100	283	9	9	38%	6%	45	-2.7	102/161/158	56	170	2	6	39%	6%	-13	-1.9
✕Chad McClanahan 2021 · A	23	37→30	38→40	45	42	179/253/253	74	277	6	7	35%	8%	46	-2.6	178/250/271	93	355	9	6	48%	8%	49	-2.4	126/207/206	81	274	9	1	53%	9%	17	-2.3
✕Mitchell Gunsolus 2017 · A	24	39→35	43→40	40→45	43	196/261/300	104	269	12	6	31%	8%	59	-1.6	186/266/265	79	319	6	7	39%	9%	53	-2.1	153/251/206	53	299	1	7	44%	10%	34	-2.5
✕Hudson Head 2024 · A	23	38	42→45	44→45	36	184/255/289	106	305	10	9	41%	7%	55	-1.9	174/233/285	111	281	11	9	40%	6%	45	-2.7	153/216/280	127	238	14	8	41%	6%	36	-2.3
✕Chase Luttrell 2024 · A	24	37	41→45	42→45	39	189/235/285	96	254	9	7	29%	5%	45	-2.7	198/248/309	111	294	11	8	35%	6%	56	-1.9	152/204/275	122	246	12	5	42%	5%	30	-1.0
✕Gabriel Garcia 2021 · A	23	35	43→45	43→45	42	177/264/287	110	275	11	6	37%	9%	59	-1.7	194/254/306	112	339	11	7	43%	7%	58	-1.7	151/211/252	100	278	11	3	47%	6%	29	-1.5
✕Jimmy Pickens 2015 · A	23	36	39→40	48→45	35	178/223/263	85	276	6	7	36%	5%	36	-3.4	194/239/278	84	304	5	9	36%	5%	45	-2.7	190/227/277	87	288	6	8	35%	4%	37	-2.0
✕Brenden Dixon 2024 · A	23	34	45	45→50	43	175/259/296	121	273	13	5	39%	9%	59	-1.7	175/246/292	117	268	14	11	38%	8%	53	-2.1	146/220/244	97	223	13	16	39%	8%	30	-1.4
✕Ignacio Valdez 2017 · A	22	30	45	45→50	37	163/227/284	121	244	13	4	38%	6%	43	-2.8	176/235/284	108	321	11	4	45%	6%	46	-2.6	129/156/191	62	248	4	0	48%	3%	-9	-1.2
✕Juan Carlos Negret 2022 · A	23	25→27	47→50	44→50	35	144/229/270	126	262	16	4	48%	8%	42	-2.9	173/242/311	138	244	18	4	36%	7%	56	-1.9	163/231/302	139	210	19	2	33%	7%	48	-1.7
✕Austin Bernard 2019 · A	23	36	42→40	44→45	39	182/248/284	101	274	10	5	36%	7%	51	-2.3	175/265/275	100	288	9	8	38%	10%	56	-1.9	137/251/237	101	222	9	7	39%	12%	40	-1.6
✕Jose Medina 2018 · A	23	39	44→45	40→45	36	195/249/311	116	288	12	4	36%	6%	57	-1.8	212/262/319	107	286	10	5	28%	6%	63	-1.3	213/260/316	103	264	9	2	23%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Brandon Dulin 2016 · A	23	36→29	44→45	49→40	36	188/236/305	117	258	12	5	32%	4%	51	-2.3	194/245/311	117	276	14	3	34%	5%	55	-1.9	182/234/297	115	254	16	0	34%	5%	45	-1.6