Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 105 | 459 | 133 | 24 | 14 | 95% | 5.5 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 15.8% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 4.00 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 105 | 459 | 133 | 24 | 14 | 95% | 5.5 | 29.0% | 5.2% | 23.7% | 3.1% | 5.14 | 2.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 572 | 131 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.6% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | 2.25 | 3.56 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 27 | 27 | 144 | 572 | 131 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.9% | 5.4% | 17.5% | 1.6% | 2.25 | 2.74 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 3 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 7.56 | 8.38 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 3 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 2.8 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 7.56 | 8.50 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 69 | 309 | 54 | 17 | 11 | 95% | 3.6 | 13.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.54 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 18 | 69 | 309 | 54 | 17 | 11 | 95% | 3.6 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 12.0% | 3.6% | 4.54 | 4.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 14 | 14 | 62 | 288 | 61 | 20 | 13 | 100% | 4.4 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 6.86 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 30 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.41 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.41 | 5.41 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 126 | 562 | 91 | 42 | 22 | — | — | 16.2% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 6.12 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.41 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 35 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.35 | 5.39 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 35 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 12.7% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.35 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.7% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 32 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 12.5% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 5.03 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 105 | 72 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 12.5% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.36 | 5.03 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 80 | 388 | 1664 | 302 | 108 | 63 | 98% | 4.7 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.29 | 4.46 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 857 | 155 | 56 | 32 | 98% | 4.7 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 4.29 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Taylor Dollard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.41 | 11.0% | 8.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.41 | 12.4% | 3.9% | 133 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 82 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 82 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 81 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 81 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | .262 | 4.97 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 135 | +0.63 | 4.34 | 300 | 80 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 80 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 77 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.97 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 95 | -1.30 | 2.19 | 426 | 77 |
| Nick Belzer R 2024 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.55 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 112 | 77 |
| David Fletcher R 2029 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 77 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2028 · 6.00 FIP | 29 | SP- | 6.00 | 8.8% | 8.0% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.44 | 10.6% | -0.4% | 53 | -0.56 | 5.44 | 117 | 76 |
| Tyler Herron R 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 76 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.94 | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .315 | 7.90 | 8.5% | -4.1% | 47 | +2.96 | 3.71 | 361 | 76 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 74 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.23 | 11.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.59 | 15.1% | 7.3% | 113 | +0.36 | 4.23 | 241 | 73 |
| Rainy Lara R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.82 | 11.4% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 242 | 73 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 73 |
| Iván Nova R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 73 |
| Alex Cobb R 2027 · 5.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.20 | 14.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .366 | 4.43 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 344 | -0.77 | 2.78 | 844 | 73 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 11.9% | 8.3% | 1.33 | 5.38 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |