Manuel Palencia

C Somerset Patriots

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AANYY	80	.230/.260/.284	0	1	40	—	.227/.247/.280
2025	22	ROKNYY	121	.312/.380/.422	1	1	48	—	.221/.273/.283
2026	23	AANYY	317	.264/.323/.368	7	1	76	—	.258/.300/.346
2027PROJ2% MLB	24	MLBNYY	6	.252/.294/.353	0	0	81	0.0
2028PROJ39% MLB	25	MLBNYY	131	.254/.297/.362	2	2	84	0.3
2029PROJ56% MLB	26	MLBNYY	214	.254/.299/.366	4	2	86	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$1M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%93

Whiff%84

Z-Con%69

wRC+40

Chase%37

wOBA33

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsGilberto Galaviz (age 24) · Michael Collins (age 24) · A.J. Jimenez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.252 / .294 / .353

PA6

HR0

K%17

BB%5

BABIP305

ISO93

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE38

scouting grade only

SPEED44

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	302	377	371	748	69	343	11	8	340	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	323	413	392	806	69	347	7	13	367	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	38	35	11	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	314	368	314	683		333	5	8	317	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	79	70	19	3	0	0	7	3	2	0	1	271	354	314	669	43	284	4	9	312	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	281	317	344	661	62	318	12	5	296	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	80	74	17	4	0	0	3	18	0	1	0	230	260	284	544	54	293	22	4	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	63	60	15	3	0	0	3	12	0	0	1	250	286	300	586	50	312	19	5	267	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	FCL Yankees	—	121	109	34	7	1	1	10	17	2	1	0	312	380	422	802	110	363	14	8	362	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	49	46	10	1	0	1	2	14	0	1	0	217	250	304	554	87	281	29	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	317	288	76	9	0	7	24	48	1	1	1	264	323	368	691	104	291	15	8	309	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	119	24	5	0	0	8	18	3	5	2	202	269	244	513	42	236	14	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	136	28	4	1	0	13	12	1	4	2	206	280	250	530	44	216	8	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	38	36	10	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	278	316	278	594		315	8	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	79	73	16	2	0	0	4	5	2	0	1	219	278	247	525	27	233	6	5	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	98	24	5	0	0	3	17	0	1	0	245	267	296	563	51	287	17	3	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	80	75	17	4	0	0	2	23	0	1	0	227	247	280	527	53	295	29	2	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	63	61	12	2	0	0	2	16	0	0	1	197	222	230	452	33	265	25	3	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	—	121	113	25	5	1	0	6	24	2	1	0	221	273	283	556	62	268	20	5	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	317	295	76	8	0	6	17	59	1	1	1	258	300	346	646	88	293	19	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	119	24	5	0	0	8	18	3	5	2	202	269	244	513	42	235	14	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	116	35	8	0	0	11	15	3	5	2	302	377	371	748	69	343	11	8	340	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	136	28	4	1	0	13	12	1	4	2	206	280	250	530	44	224	8	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	130	42	7	1	0	19	10	1	4	2	323	413	392	806	69	347	7	13	367	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	117	109	26	2	0	0	6	7	2	0	1	239	291	257	547	18	255	6	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	117	105	30	3	0	0	10	5	2	0	1	286	359	314	673	29	300	4	9	314	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	98	24	5	0	0	3	17	0	1	0	245	267	296	563	51	293	17	3	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	96	27	6	0	0	5	12	0	1	0	281	317	344	661	62	318	12	5	296	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	4 teams	—	313	295	62	12	1	0	12	75	2	3	1	210	246	258	504	47	278	24	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	4 teams	—	313	289	76	15	1	2	18	61	2	3	1	263	311	343	653	80	323	19	6	293	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	317	295	76	8	0	6	17	59	1	1	1	258	300	346	646	88	299	19	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	—	317	288	76	9	0	7	24	48	1	1	1	264	323	368	691	104	291	15	8	309	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Yankees 1	—	131	119	24	5	0	0	8	18	3	5	2	202	269	244	513	42	236	14	6	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	—	151	136	28	4	1	0	13	12	1	4	2	206	280	250	530	44	216	8	9	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	117	108	26	2	0	0	6	7	2	0	1	241	291	259	550	19	260	6	5	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	98	24	5	0	0	3	17	0	1	0	245	267	296	563	51	287	17	3	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	4 teams	—	313	296	62	12	1	0	12	75	2	3	1	209	246	257	503	47	275	24	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	317	296	76	8	0	6	17	59	1	1	1	257	300	345	645	88	293	19	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	—	102	98	24	5	0	0	3	17	0	1	0	245	267	296	563	51	287	17	3	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	4 teams	—	313	296	62	12	1	0	12	75	2	3	1	209	246	257	503	47	275	24	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	317	296	76	8	0	6	17	59	1	1	1	257	300	345	645	88	293	19	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYY	2%	367	343	86	15	1	5	19	75	2	4	1	252	294	350	643	98	305	20	5	288	81	-8	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYY	2%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	252	294	353	647	100	305	17	0	289	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	39%	338	315	80	14	1	6	18	69	2	4	1	253	297	358	655	105	305	20	5	292	84	-6	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	384	358	90	16	1	7	21	79	2	4	1	253	298	362	661	109	304	21	5	295	86	-7	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	404	376	94	17	1	7	23	84	2	4	1	251	299	362	660	110	303	21	6	295	86	-7	+0	+0	+7	+9	1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	NYY	65%	414	385	96	17	1	8	24	87	2	3	1	249	298	359	657	110	302	21	6	293	85	-8	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	NYY	64%	412	383	94	17	1	7	24	88	2	2	1	247	296	356	651	109	300	21	6	291	83	-8	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	NYY	64%	409	380	92	16	1	7	24	89	2	0	1	244	292	348	640	104	298	22	6	287	80	-10	-0	-2	+7	+9	0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	NYY	64%	386	359	86	15	1	6	22	85	2	0	1	240	287	338	625	99	295	22	6	280	76	-11	-0	-3	+7	+8	0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	NYY	70%	358	333	78	13	1	5	20	81	2	0	0	234	281	326	607	92	291	23	6	273	71	-13	+0	-4	+6	+8	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	39%	131	122	30	5	0	2	7	27	1	2	1	254	297	362	659	108	305	21	5	294	84	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	214	199	51	9	1	4	12	44	1	2	1	254	299	366	665	113	304	21	6	297	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	249	232	59	10	1	5	14	52	1	2	1	252	299	366	665	114	303	21	6	297	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	NYY	65%	267	247	62	11	1	5	16	56	2	2	1	250	298	364	662	114	301	21	6	295	85	-5	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	NYY	64%	266	247	61	11	1	5	16	57	1	1	1	248	297	360	657	112	300	21	6	293	83	-5	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	NYY	64%	263	245	60	10	1	5	15	57	1	0	1	245	293	352	645	107	298	22	6	288	80	-6	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	NYY	64%	248	231	56	10	1	4	14	55	1	0	0	240	288	342	630	102	295	22	6	282	76	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	NYY	70%	250	233	55	9	1	4	14	56	1	0	0	235	281	329	611	94	291	22	6	274	71	-9	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1888	1756	434	75	7	34	108	404	9	9	6	247	294	356	650	109	302	21	6	290	74	-43	-1	-7	+34	+41	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	149	26	2	12	37	139	3	3	2	246	293	355	648	109	300	21	6	290	74	-15	-0	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4537	4222	1020	173	11	63	250	912	27	35	15	242	288	333	621	91	292	20	6	278	74	-76	+1	-10	+61	+74	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	605	147	25	2	9	36	131	4	5	2	243	290	336	625	93	294	20	6	278	74	-14	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Toby Halllast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,501 PA	3.8	2,501	45	2	263	298	374	+32	+38	9.9	10.0
/162	664	12	1	+8.4	+10.1	2.6	pk7: 10
#2Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#3Brayan Peñalast yr '15 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	21	6	262	303	355	+19	+37	7.1	7.1
/162	664	8	2	+7.0	+13.6	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Frank House'50-'61 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,187 PA	3.3	2,187	47	6	243*	292*	382*	+39	+0	5.1	5.3
/162	664	14	2	+11.9	+0.0	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Boss Schmidt'06-'11 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,592 PA	2.4	1,592	3	23	250*	285*	402*	+28	-1	4.3	4.3
/162	664	1	10	+11.8	-0.3	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,895	32	10	247	291	352	+34	+20	4.1	4.1
/162	664	11	4	+11.9	+7.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#6Hal Smith'56-'65 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,822 PA	2.7	1,822	23	6	249*	295*	348*	+32	+0	1.7	1.7
/162	664	8	2	+11.8	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Palencia (OGILVIE)	24	53	35	44	38	250/291/347	97	305	4	4	20%	5%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Galaviz 2016 · AAA	24	54	39→40	44→30	43	260/297/345	86	301	6	4	16%	4%	82	-0.0	250/294/331	81	283	6	7	13%	5%	78	-0.3	243/283/278	35	268	2	1	10%	3%	58	-0.5
✕Michael Collins 2008 · AA	24	51→59	40→45	43→45	41	243/295/336	93	288	7	7	18%	3%	80	-0.2	229/294/344	115	271	10	7	19%	5%	82	-0.0	227/301/367	140	266	12	6	19%	6%	88	+0.2
✕A.J. Jimenez 2014 · AAA	24	53→60	41→45	41→50	43	253/292/354	101	304	7	7	19%	5%	82	-0.0	228/266/323	95	278	6	6	19%	5%	65	-1.2	219/256/313	94	264	5	4	18%	4%	57	-0.7
✕Tyler Smith 2015 · AA	24	49→54	41→40	47→50	48	235/305/339	103	298	8	10	23%	8%	84	+0.1	233/291/317	84	297	6	8	22%	7%	74	-0.6	226/283/300	74	288	5	7	22%	6%	63	-1.0
✕Owen Miller 2021 · AA	24	48→54	41→45	43→50	44	233/282/334	101	281	9	6	20%	6%	74	-0.5	240/291/356	116	304	11	7	23%	6%	83	+0.1	244/296/361	116	305	10	8	22%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Juan Fernandez 2023 · AAA	24	51→58	38→40	50	45	244/301/321	77	309	6	10	22%	6%	78	-0.3	238/299/333	95	286	9	11	19%	7%	81	-0.1	234/299/328	94	270	10	11	17%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Dominic Miroglio 2019 · AA	24	52	39→45	44→40	44	245/294/337	92	286	5	6	16%	4%	79	-0.2	222/278/320	98	279	8	5	22%	6%	70	-0.9	200/265/326	125	244	12	2	23%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Michael Garciaparra 2007 · AAA	24	55	40	43→45	47	261/330/350	89	327	7	9	21%	7%	96	+1.0	241/306/318	77	310	6	8	23%	7%	80	-0.2	232/296/291	59	301	5	5	23%	6%	67	-0.4
✕Horacio Vasquez 2010 · AAA	24	55	39→40	43→40	41	264/296/352	87	313	6	7	18%	4%	82	+0.0	242/274/316	74	290	4	6	17%	4%	66	-1.1	235/264/293	59	281	2	3	17%	3%	54	-0.8
✕Ryan Jackson 2012 · AA	24	50→54	40	44→45	46	240/290/336	96	292	7	4	20%	6%	77	-0.3	241/292/328	87	301	7	6	21%	7%	76	-0.4	246/299/320	73	314	5	4	22%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Adan Velazquez 2014 · AAA	24	52→54	42→45	43→50	44	250/296/361	111	303	9	8	20%	6%	85	+0.2	242/280/333	91	298	8	6	21%	4%	72	-0.7	235/269/306	71	291	6	5	21%	4%	60	-0.9
✕Francisco Urbaez 2022 · AAA	24	51→57	40→45	48→45	48	240/307/335	94	297	6	6	20%	7%	84	+0.1	235/297/334	99	292	8	7	21%	7%	80	-0.1	243/303/350	107	288	8	7	17%	7%	85	+0.1
✕James Tomlin 2007 · AA	24	53→62	40	44→50	44	255/287/356	101	292	7	8	15%	4%	80	-0.1	255/298/342	87	305	3	14	16%	6%	81	-0.1	267/316/350	83	323	2	16	17%	6%	86	+0.2
✕Billy Fleming 2017 · AA	24	52	40→45	45→40	45	247/301/346	99	316	6	4	23%	6%	84	+0.1	232/278/346	114	285	10	5	22%	5%	75	-0.5	227/273/341	114	278	11	3	22%	5%	71	-0.4
✕Luke Maile 2015 · AA	24	50	40	48→40	46	236/289/333	97	295	6	5	22%	6%	76	-0.4	208/255/297	89	258	7	3	22%	5%	55	-1.9	227/310/346	119	311	10	4	28%	9%	88	+0.1
✕Ryan Howard 2019 · AA	25	53→55	40	46→45	44	254/295/351	97	297	7	8	17%	5%	82	+0.0	215/257/306	91	269	8	8	22%	5%	57	-1.8	191/229/261	70	235	7	6	21%	4%	34	-2.9
✕Yolbert Sanchez 2022 · AA	25	51→58	42→30	47→45	44	250/284/345	96	286	10	7	17%	4%	77	-0.3	257/294/318	61	315	4	8	19%	4%	74	-0.6	263/299/312	49	324	2	8	19%	4%	71	-0.6
✕Justin Sellers 2010 · AA	24	52→56	38→45	46→50	48	244/307/332	89	297	5	10	19%	7%	83	+0.1	228/297/349	121	277	11	8	21%	8%	84	+0.1	213/279/334	120	256	11	6	21%	7%	73	-0.5
✕Jeremy West 2006 · AA	24	50→51	43→45	49→30	45	240/297/358	118	281	9	4	18%	6%	86	+0.3	242/295/348	106	281	9	4	17%	5%	82	+0.0	247/299/344	97	284	9	1	16%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Xavier Fernández 2019 · AA	24	48	43→45	44→40	43	234/270/350	117	272	10	6	19%	4%	73	-0.6	227/273/354	127	268	15	6	21%	5%	76	-0.4	233/283/351	119	276	13	2	20%	6%	76	-0.2

Manuel Palencia

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps