Carter Holton

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 24 LHP 5'11" / 191 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTFG #479

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AATL	1	1	2	13.50	6.10	30.0%	40.0%	—	K 30.0% · BB 40.0% · FIP 5.63
2026	23	MIX2 levels	10	8	42	4.32	3.84	23.2%	9.0%	—	K 15.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 5.64
2027PROJ	24	MLBATL	10	10	57	5.15	5.15	17.5%	11.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBATL	4	4	25	4.99	4.94	19.0%	10.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBATL	6	6	38	4.89	4.85	19.8%	10.7%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsMiguel Cienfuegos (age 26) · Marc Rzepczynski (age 24) · Erik Rivera (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%17.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD3040

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	2	10	3	4	0	100%	2.0	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	13.50	5.63	—
2024	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	2	10	3	4	0	100%	2.0	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	13.50	5.63	—
2024	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	1	1	2	10	3	4	0	100%	2.0	30.0%	40.0%	-10.0%	0.0%	13.50	6.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	42	177	41	16	5	80%	4.2	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	4.5%	4.32	5.64	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	8	42	177	41	16	5	80%	4.2	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	4.5%	4.32	5.64	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	8	42	177	41	16	5	80%	4.2	23.2%	9.0%	14.1%	2.8%	4.32	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ATL	10	10	57	241	42	27	8	100%	5.7	17.5%	11.4%	6.1%	3.1%	5.15	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	244	46	26	8	100%	5.8	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	3.1%	4.99	4.94	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	58	244	48	26	8	100%	5.8	19.8%	10.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.85	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	57	240	48	26	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	25	106	20	11	3	100%	6.2	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	3.1%	4.99	4.94	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	6	6	38	160	32	17	5	100%	6.3	19.8%	10.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.85	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	44	186	37	20	6	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.1%	4.86	4.86	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	452	89	48	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.1%	4.90	4.49	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	166	90	26	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.1%	4.90	4.49	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		11	9	44	187	30	23	8	82%	4.0	16.3%	12.3%	4.0%	4.3%	4.74	5.64	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	856	140	105	37	82%	4.0	16.3%	12.3%	4.0%	4.3%	4.74	5.64	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carter Holton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	17.5%	11.4%	3.1%	—	4.88	19.6%	8.9%	172	-0.27	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	82
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	81
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	81
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	81
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	80
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	80
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	79
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	79
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	78
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	78
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	78
Pedro Hernandez L 2013 · 5.31 FIP	24	SP	5.31	11.0%	8.4%	3.8%	.347	4.09	13.1%	4.2%	68	-1.22	4.09	124	78
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	78
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	78
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	77
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	19.1%	10.9%	1.20	4.97
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*