Junior Tilien
SS West Michigan Whitecaps| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+NYM | 440 | .232/.306/.331 | 6 | 4 | 30 | — | .179/.230/.250 |
| 2025 | 22 | A/ROKDET | 221 | .259/.333/.365 | 2 | 1 | 48 | — | .198/.256/.281 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+/A/ROK2 orgs | 287 | .213/.303/.283 | 2 | 1 | 31 | — | .174/.237/.230 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBDET | 1 | .209/.266/.279 | 0 | 0 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBDET | 52 | .213/.271/.295 | 1 | 0 | 63 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBDET | 102 | .215/.275/.306 | 1 | 1 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 112 | 103 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 225 | 233 | 458 | 68 | 212 | 21 | 5 | 212 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 353 | 323 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 81 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 248 | 312 | 406 | 717 | 158 | 296 | 23 | 8 | 320 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 127 | 114 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 302 | 386 | 688 | 158 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 306 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 242 | 211 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 251 | 342 | 417 | 759 | 166 | 285 | 17 | 11 | 338 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 440 | 393 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 85 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 306 | 331 | 637 | 99 | 277 | 19 | 9 | 288 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 181 | 160 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 346 | 356 | 703 | 88 | 331 | 19 | 10 | 318 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 40 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 275 | 405 | 680 | 189 | 269 | 25 | 8 | 301 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 192 | 174 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 69 | 252 | 22 | 9 | 250 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 67 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 343 | 345 | 688 | 103 | 277 | 15 | 13 | 317 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 28 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 429 | 273 | 701 | 333 | 14 | 18 | 345 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 112 | 105 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 171 | 171 | 343 | 48 | 167 | 30 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 353 | 333 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 115 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 235 | 306 | 541 | 117 | 258 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 127 | 118 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 169 | 222 | 271 | 493 | 102 | 227 | 28 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 242 | 219 | 42 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 60 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 192 | 263 | 311 | 573 | 119 | 235 | 25 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 440 | 408 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 113 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 230 | 250 | 480 | 71 | 226 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 181 | 165 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 274 | 285 | 559 | 73 | 283 | 25 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 40 | 38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 175 | 263 | 438 | 132 | 200 | 35 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 192 | 180 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 214 | 217 | 430 | 56 | 226 | 28 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 67 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 269 | 279 | 547 | 82 | 247 | 21 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 28 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 321 | 208 | 530 | 261 | 21 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 112 | 105 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 171 | 171 | 343 | 48 | 181 | 30 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 112 | 103 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 225 | 233 | 458 | 68 | 212 | 21 | 5 | 212 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 353 | 333 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 115 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 189 | 235 | 306 | 541 | 117 | 258 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 353 | 323 | 80 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 81 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 248 | 312 | 406 | 717 | 158 | 296 | 23 | 8 | 320 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 336 | 62 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 185 | 251 | 298 | 549 | 113 | 236 | 26 | 7 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 369 | 325 | 79 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 243 | 328 | 406 | 734 | 163 | 281 | 19 | 10 | 327 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 440 | 408 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 113 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 230 | 250 | 480 | 71 | 233 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 440 | 393 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 85 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 306 | 331 | 637 | 99 | 277 | 19 | 9 | 288 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 203 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 265 | 296 | 560 | 89 | 282 | 28 | 7 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 221 | 197 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 259 | 333 | 365 | 699 | 107 | 320 | 20 | 10 | 315 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 265 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 240 | 238 | 478 | 60 | 237 | 25 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 287 | 254 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 303 | 283 | 587 | 71 | 265 | 20 | 11 | 275 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 112 | 105 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 171 | 171 | 343 | 48 | 167 | 30 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 353 | 330 | 63 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 20 | 115 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 191 | 235 | 309 | 544 | 118 | 258 | 33 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 369 | 336 | 62 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 185 | 251 | 298 | 549 | 113 | 232 | 26 | 7 | 241 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 440 | 410 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 113 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 178 | 230 | 249 | 479 | 71 | 226 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 203 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 265 | 296 | 560 | 89 | 268 | 28 | 7 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 263 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 240 | 240 | 480 | 61 | 234 | 25 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 440 | 410 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 113 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 178 | 230 | 249 | 479 | 71 | 226 | 26 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 203 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 265 | 296 | 560 | 89 | 268 | 28 | 7 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 263 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 240 | 240 | 480 | 61 | 234 | 25 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | DET | 0% | 337 | 310 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 87 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 212 | 269 | 284 | 553 | 72 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 252 | 57 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | DET | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 266 | 279 | 545 | 70 | 279 | 0 | 0 | 249 | 57 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | DET | 30% | 171 | 156 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 274 | 302 | 576 | 85 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | DET | 44% | 230 | 211 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 278 | 313 | 591 | 94 | 285 | 25 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 49% | 265 | 242 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 279 | 315 | 594 | 96 | 285 | 25 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | DET | 52% | 287 | 263 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 279 | 315 | 595 | 96 | 285 | 25 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | DET | 51% | 291 | 266 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 74 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 279 | 314 | 593 | 96 | 284 | 25 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | DET | 51% | 294 | 269 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 76 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 275 | 307 | 582 | 92 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | DET | 30% | 52 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 271 | 295 | 567 | 83 | 280 | 25 | 8 | 257 | 63 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | DET | 44% | 102 | 93 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 275 | 306 | 581 | 91 | 281 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 67 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 49% | 130 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 216 | 276 | 308 | 584 | 93 | 281 | 25 | 7 | 265 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | DET | 52% | 148 | 135 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 276 | 309 | 585 | 93 | 280 | 26 | 7 | 265 | 68 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | DET | 51% | 150 | 137 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 275 | 308 | 583 | 93 | 280 | 25 | 7 | 264 | 68 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | DET | 51% | 151 | 138 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 272 | 301 | 573 | 89 | 278 | 26 | 7 | 260 | 65 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 733 | 670 | 141 | 29 | 0 | 10 | 53 | 187 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 273 | 299 | 572 | 88 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 263 | 51 | -29 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +16 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 125 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 166 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 210 | 272 | 300 | 572 | 89 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 263 | 51 | -26 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3466 | 3191 | 638 | 135 | 11 | 45 | 229 | 922 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 200 | 258 | 291 | 550 | 92 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -69 | +1 | -4 | +18 | +36 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 119 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 43 | 173 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 257 | 288 | 545 | 89 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -26 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 192 PAwOBA .241 → .196 (−45)K% 21.9% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.021 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.60% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .241 → .196; ISO .069 → .054; BABIP .252 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 67 PAwOBA .310 → .250 (−60)K% 14.9% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 9.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.980 | 19.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.980 | 5.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.63% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .310 → .250; ISO .103 → .082; BABIP .277 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Braves · 28 PAwOBA .338 → .243 (−94)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 10.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 26.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .243; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 181 PAwOBA .313 → .250 (−63)K% 18.8% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.78% | ÷0.998 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.94% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.40% | ÷1.051 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | ×0.990 | 21.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.971 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.990 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×0.990 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.864 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.73% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .313 → .250; ISO .087 → .071; BABIP .331 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Tigers · 40 PAwOBA .292 → .193 (−99)K% 25.0% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.001 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷0.996 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 9.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷0.992 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 10.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.880 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 3.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .292 → .193; ISO .189 → .128; BABIP .269 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 440 PAwOBA .284 → .212 (−72)K% 19.3% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.32% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 17.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 4.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.95% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.29% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .284 → .212; ISO .099 → .071; BABIP .277 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 242 PAwOBA .332 → .247 (−84)K% 17.4% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.36% | ÷0.947 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.16% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.34% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×1.015 | 15.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.88% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.015 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×1.015 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.55% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.26% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .332 → .247; ISO .166 → .114; BABIP .285 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 127 PAwOBA .301 → .231 (−70)K% 22.0% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.05% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.28% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.47% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 7.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.99% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .301 → .231; ISO .158 → .122; BABIP .274 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).