Carlos Martinez (P, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Carlos Martinez P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%23.1%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	15	3	27	122	30	20	0	20%	1.8	16.7%	20.5%	-3.8%	0.0%	3.04	4.28	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	15	3	27	122	30	20	0	20%	1.8	24.6%	16.4%	8.2%	0.0%	3.04	3.10	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	16	1	25	104	41	11	2	6%	1.6	26.8%	13.2%	13.6%	3.0%	2.88	4.13	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	16	1	25	104	41	11	2	6%	1.6	39.4%	10.6%	28.8%	1.9%	2.88	2.18	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	18	92	28	20	4	0%	1.3	19.7%	25.2%	-5.4%	6.8%	7.36	8.34	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	18	92	28	20	4	0%	1.3	19.7%	25.2%	-5.4%	6.8%	7.36	8.34	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	18	92	28	20	4	0%	1.3	30.4%	21.7%	8.7%	4.3%	7.36	6.15	—
2024	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	4	0	6	31	6	8	0	0%	1.5	19.4%	25.8%	-6.5%	0.0%	6.00	4.73	—
2024	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	4	0	6	31	6	8	0	0%	1.5	19.4%	25.8%	-6.5%	0.0%	6.00	4.73	—
2024	22	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	4	0	6	31	6	8	0	0%	1.5	19.4%	25.8%	-6.5%	0.0%	6.00	5.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	12.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	19	0	20	84	20	10	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.65	4.59	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.65	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	4	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.65	4.21	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	94	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.65	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		49	4	76	349	72	70	9	8%	1.6	20.8%	20.0%	0.7%	2.7%	4.26	5.35	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	11	200	918	191	184	24	8%	1.6	20.8%	20.0%	0.7%	2.7%	4.26	5.35	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	23.1%	12.5%	3.0%	—	4.59	23.5%	12.1%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	89
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	86
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	84
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84
Shawn Tolleson R 2012 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	24.4%	11.9%	2.4%	.265	3.47	24.4%	18.5%	144	-0.39	3.05	218	84
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	83
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	83
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	83
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	83
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	83
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	82