Aaron Nixon

P Greenville Drive

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	ANYY	39	62	5.40	3.98	22.2%	16.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 19.5% · FIP 4.96
2026	25	MIX2 levels	23	25	8.28	3.70	21.1%	11.3%	—	K 16.6% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.99
2027PROJ	26	MLBBOS	17	18	5.18	5.18	18.9%	14.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBBOS	8	8	5.12	5.13	19.4%	13.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsDerek Eitel (age 27) · Casey Fien (age 25) · David Holman (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%18.9%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	39	0	62	284	63	47	3	0%	1.6	16.4%	19.5%	-3.1%	1.4%	5.40	4.96	—
2024	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	39	0	62	284	63	47	3	0%	1.6	16.4%	19.5%	-3.1%	1.4%	5.40	4.96	—
2024	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	39	0	62	284	63	47	3	0%	1.6	22.2%	16.5%	5.6%	1.1%	5.40	3.98	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	25	133	28	15	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.8%	2.8%	1.0%	8.28	3.99	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	25	133	28	15	2	0%	1.1	16.6%	13.8%	2.8%	1.0%	8.28	3.99	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	25	133	28	15	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.3%	9.8%	1.5%	8.28	3.70	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BOS	17	0	18	76	14	11	2	0%	1.1	18.9%	14.0%	4.9%	2.8%	5.18	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BOS	21	0	22	94	18	13	3	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	2.8%	5.12	5.13	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BOS	8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	2.8%	5.12	5.13	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	2.8%	5.12	4.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	123	25	0%	1.1	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	2.8%	5.12	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		62	0	87	417	69	74	5	0%	1.4	16.5%	17.7%	-1.2%	1.3%	6.23	4.65	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	962	159	170	12	0%	1.4	16.5%	17.7%	-1.2%	1.3%	6.23	4.65	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Nixon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.9%	14.0%	2.8%	—	5.13	19.4%	5.8%	22	-0.05	—	—	—
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	89
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	86
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	86
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	85
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	84
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	84
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	84
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	84
Philip Humber R 2009 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	18.0%	14.0%	2.0%	.450	4.14	17.6%	10.6%	287	-0.31	2.97	362	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	83
Rene Coss R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	16.7%	13.9%	1.2%	.250	4.79	13.0%	2.1%	82	+0.68	3.84	123	83
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	82
Jackson Goddard R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	21.1%	14.3%	2.5%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	149	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	82
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	82
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	82