Shane Murphy

P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 LHP 6'5" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #891

Scout OFP35ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	23	16	101	4.44	4.11	20.9%	5.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 4.7% · FIP 5.52
2025	24	MIX3 levels	26	23	135	1.66	3.27	20.5%	4.9%	—	K 16.1% · BB 4.9% · FIP 4.00
2026	25	MIX2 levels	27	23	146	4.43	4.91	17.9%	5.9%	—	K 15.1% · BB 5.7% · FIP 5.43
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	15	15	90	5.20	5.20	13.8%	4.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBCWS	10	10	57	5.12	5.14	14.6%	4.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBCWS	14	14	84	5.11	5.15	15.0%	5.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff42Control60Command60FB velo40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsDylan Dodd (age 26) · Kyle Hald (age 26) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%13.8%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF4040

CTRL—60

CMD6060

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	2	7	35	3	4	0	40%	1.5	8.6%	11.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	7.36	3.82	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	2	7	35	3	4	0	40%	1.5	8.6%	11.4%	-2.9%	0.0%	7.36	3.92	—
2023	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	5.1%	3.63	5.21	—
2023	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	21	21	97	384	98	23	13	100%	4.6	25.5%	6.0%	19.5%	3.4%	3.63	3.53	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	16.4%	4.7%	11.7%	5.8%	4.44	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	16.4%	4.7%	11.7%	5.8%	4.44	5.52	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	101	411	86	22	16	70%	4.4	20.9%	5.4%	15.6%	3.9%	4.44	4.11	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	16.1%	4.9%	11.2%	3.0%	1.66	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	16.1%	4.9%	11.2%	3.0%	1.66	4.00	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	23	135	507	104	25	12	88%	5.2	20.5%	4.9%	15.6%	2.4%	1.66	3.27	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	146	613	110	36	29	85%	5.4	15.1%	5.7%	9.4%	5.3%	4.43	5.43	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	146	613	110	36	29	85%	5.4	15.1%	5.7%	9.4%	5.3%	4.43	5.43	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	146	613	110	36	29	85%	5.4	17.9%	5.9%	12.1%	4.7%	4.43	4.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	15	15	90	380	52	16	16	100%	6.0	13.8%	4.2%	9.6%	4.3%	5.20	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	134	565	82	26	24	100%	6.1	14.6%	4.7%	9.9%	4.2%	5.12	5.14	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	134	565	85	28	24	100%	6.1	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	4.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	128	539	82	29	23	100%	6.1	15.1%	5.4%	9.8%	4.3%	5.17	5.24	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	120	507	76	29	23	100%	6.0	15.0%	5.8%	9.2%	4.5%	5.29	5.39	-0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	57	241	35	11	10	100%	5.7	14.6%	4.7%	9.9%	4.2%	5.12	5.14	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	14	14	84	355	53	18	15	100%	6.0	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	4.2%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	93	393	59	21	17	100%	5.8	15.1%	5.4%	9.8%	4.3%	5.17	5.24	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	16	16	96	405	61	23	18	100%	6.0	15.0%	5.8%	9.2%	4.5%	5.29	5.39	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	55	329	1390	208	73	60	100%	6.0	15.0%	5.3%	9.7%	4.3%	5.18	4.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	126	44	36	100%	6.0	15.0%	5.3%	9.7%	4.3%	5.18	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		102	85	487	1950	317	110	91	83%	4.8	16.2%	5.6%	10.6%	4.7%	3.55	5.00	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	35	200	801	130	45	37	83%	4.8	16.2%	5.6%	10.6%	4.7%	3.55	5.00	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	13.8%	4.2%	4.3%	—	5.18	14.9%	9.9%	395	-0.02	—	—	—
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	82
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	74
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	74
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	74
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	72
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	72
Matthew Crownover L 2018 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	12.1%	7.5%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	377	72
Daniel Camarena L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	26	SP	4.90	18.5%	4.9%	5.0%	.335	4.47	14.9%	6.6%	83	-0.43	3.76	674	72
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	72
Lance Davis L 2001 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	11.5%	7.4%	2.6%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	106	71
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	71
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	71
Matt Whitehouse L 2017 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP-	4.68	14.6%	6.1%	3.7%	.291	4.32	18.5%	6.6%	165	-0.36	3.37	353	70
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	70
Kramer Sneed L 2016 · 4.21 FIP	27	SP	4.21	13.2%	8.2%	2.2%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	116	70
Dillon Peters L 2019 · 5.27 FIP	26	SP-	5.27	17.7%	7.3%	5.0%	.323	4.86	20.5%	11.3%	119	-0.41	2.56	598	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	70
P.J. Conlon L 2018 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	13.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	392	69
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	69
Drew Parrish L 2024 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP-	4.66	20.2%	4.8%	4.9%	.290	4.93	15.1%	5.7%	70	+0.27	3.47	522	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	121	14.8%	5.0%	1.66	5.17
Marty McHale ('10-'16, 1 WAR*)	1.8	119	15.7%*	5.3%*	1.55*	5.34*
Roy Mitchell ('10-'19, -0 WAR*)	3.4	96	13.3%*	6.6%*	1.51*	4.91*
Josh Towers ('09)	3.7	104	12.3%	3.9%	1.50	4.95
Lum Harris ('41-'47, 3 WAR*)	4.1	164	13.7%*	7.0%*	1.78*	4.86*
Dave Bush ('13)	5.7	143	15.7%	6.0%	1.34	4.73
Brian Anderson ('05)	7.7	129	11.1%	5.2%	1.54	4.74