Anders Tolhurst
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AAA
ERA5.10
FIP5.10
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%10.7%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 7 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 20 | 10 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.65 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 23 | 2 | 40 | 172 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 0.8% | 5.62 | 2.92 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 44 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 75 | 14 | 10 | 23.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.32 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 18 | 16 | 81 | 348 | 71 | 34 | 12 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 5.2% | 4.65 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 51 | 28 | 10 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 52 | 27 | 10 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.16 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 51 | 26 | 10 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.15 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 49 | 26 | 9 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 47 | 25 | 9 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 5.25 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 44 | 25 | 9 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 5.33 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 42 | 24 | 9 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 5.42 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 39 | 23 | 9 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 5.52 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 36 | 22 | 8 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 4.3% | 5.63 | 5.71 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 33 | 21 | 8 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 5.76 | 5.84 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 21 | 193 | 828 | 176 | 78 | 29 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.46 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 22 | 200 | 857 | 182 | 81 | 30 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.38 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anders Tolhurst (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 3.9% | — | 5.19 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 186 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 91 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 90 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 88 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 87 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .304 | 3.25 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.19 | 3.01 | 214 | 85 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.80 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .301 | 3.96 | 26.2% | 21.8% | 50 | -0.84 | 3.31 | 213 | 85 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 85 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 85 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.53 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.78 | 3.42 | 219 | 84 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 84 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.74 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 105 | 84 |
| Alejandro Mateo R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.88 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 4.1% | .301 | 3.97 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 13 | -0.91 | 3.97 | 209 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.76 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 106 | 84 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.18 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.51 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.33 | 1.93 | 233 | 84 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.46 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | .342 | 5.66 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 58 | +0.20 | 3.52 | 191 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.