Anders Tolhurst
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 190 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146137vR 127
ERA5.65
FIP5.65
K%17.6%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%6.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 43% | 1.8 | 33.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 3.65 | 2.38 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 43% | 1.8 | 33.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 3.65 | 2.29 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 40 | 172 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 9% | 1.7 | 20.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 5.62 | 2.86 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 2 | 40 | 172 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 9% | 1.7 | 27.9% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 1.2% | 5.62 | 2.25 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 75 | 14 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.9% | 6.3% | 17.7% | 3.7% | 3.32 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 60 | 249 | 75 | 14 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.1% | 5.6% | 24.5% | 4.0% | 3.32 | 3.47 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 16 | 81 | 348 | 71 | 34 | 12 | 89% | 4.5 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.65 | 6.41 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 16 | 81 | 348 | 71 | 34 | 12 | 89% | 4.5 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 32 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.65 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 53 | 31 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.55 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 52 | 30 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 5.51 | 5.54 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 5.54 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 5.51 | 5.54 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 55 | 32 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.52 | 5.17 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 90 | 34 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.52 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 21 | 193 | 828 | 176 | 78 | 32 | 23% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.38 | 4.64 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 22 | 200 | 857 | 182 | 81 | 33 | 23% | 2.1 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 4.38 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anders Tolhurst (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.65 | 17.6% | 10.7% | 4.2% | — | 5.55 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 136 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 88 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 87 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 84 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 83 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 83 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 83 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 82 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 81 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 80 |
| Seth McGarry R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.89 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 261 | 79 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 79 |
| Kevin McGowan R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | .322 | 5.39 | 15.4% | 4.7% | 64 | +0.55 | 2.93 | 426 | 79 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 78 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 78 |
| Jose Pina R 2029 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 78 |
| Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 6.56 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.56 | 16.4% | 12.2% | 6.0% | .275 | 5.47 | 13.5% | 0.3% | 25 | -1.09 | 4.37 | 395 | 77 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 77 |
| Blaine Knight R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.08 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 269 | 77 |
| Shay Schanaman R 2026 · 6.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.44 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 6.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 127 | 77 |
| Nick Frasso R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.17 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .310 | 3.68 | 30.1% | 14.0% | 24 | -1.49 | 2.60 | 248 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 1.61 | 5.57 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |