Anders Tolhurst — OGILVIE

Anders Tolhurst P Buffalo Bisons

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%16.8%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%7.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	3	12	59	20	10	0	43%	1.8	33.9%	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%	3.65	2.38	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	3	12	59	20	10	0	43%	1.8	33.9%	16.9%	16.9%	0.0%	3.65	2.29	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	40	172	48	12	2	9%	1.7	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	0.8%	5.62	2.93	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	40	172	48	12	2	9%	1.7	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	0.8%	5.62	2.93	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	40	172	48	12	2	9%	1.7	27.9%	7.0%	20.9%	1.2%	5.62	2.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	249	75	14	10	0%	1.4	23.9%	6.3%	17.7%	4.2%	3.32	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	60	249	75	14	10	0%	1.4	23.9%	6.3%	17.7%	4.2%	3.32	4.18	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	60	249	75	14	10	0%	1.4	30.1%	5.6%	24.5%	4.0%	3.32	3.47	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	81	348	71	34	12	89%	4.5	16.3%	9.1%	7.2%	5.1%	4.65	5.68	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	16	81	348	71	34	12	89%	4.5	16.3%	9.1%	7.2%	5.1%	4.65	5.68	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	16	81	348	71	34	12	89%	4.5	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.53	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	TOR	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	9.3%	7.6%	3.9%	5.35	5.35	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	69	0	72	304	53	28	12	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.27	5.28	-0.6
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	70	295	53	28	11	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	3.9%	5.26	5.29	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	64	0	67	282	50	27	11	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.0%	5.31	5.38	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	60	0	63	265	47	26	11	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	4.1%	5.43	5.53	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	31	131	23	12	5	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.3%	8.1%	3.8%	5.27	5.28	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	42	0	44	186	33	18	7	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	3.9%	5.26	5.29	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	47	0	49	207	37	20	8	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	4.0%	5.31	5.38	-0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	48	0	50	211	37	21	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	4.1%	5.43	5.53	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	0	173	731	129	71	29	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.7%	8.0%	4.0%	5.33	5.00	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	149	82	33	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.7%	8.0%	4.0%	5.33	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		92	21	193	828	172	73	30	23%	2.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.6%	4.38	4.42	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	22	200	857	178	76	31	23%	2.1	20.8%	8.8%	12.0%	3.6%	4.38	4.42	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Anders Tolhurst (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	16.8%	9.3%	3.9%	—	5.32	17.7%	8.2%	209	-0.03	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	90
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	86
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	86
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	84
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	84
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	83
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	81
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	80
Kevin McGowan R 2018 · 4.86 FIP	26	SW	4.86	18.3%	9.7%	3.8%	.322	5.41	15.4%	4.7%	64	+0.55	2.94	426	80
Seth McGarry R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	17.1%	9.6%	3.2%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	261	80
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	79
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	79
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	79
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	78
Ryan Watson R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	25	SW	4.98	17.3%	10.5%	3.7%	.321	3.57	21.6%	14.7%	152	-1.41	3.11	412	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	17.5%	9.6%	1.52	5.32
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50