Matt Koperniak

LF Memphis Redbirds
Age 29 L/R 6'0" / 208 lbs AAA HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
Overview
AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035
MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAA/INTL2 orgs562.300/.367/.490209102—.275/.324/.431
202527AAASTL536.246/.320/.38214963—.215/.271/.320
202628AAASTL210.253/.329/.3393458—.224/.280/.286
2027PROJ10% MLB29MLBSTL14.243/.296/.3520083-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB30MLBSTL44.239/.293/.3461081-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
K%78
Max EV77
Whiff%68
Z-Con%60
Speed50
BB%42
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsCarlos Sosa (age 29) · Taylor Kohlwey (age 29) · Brett Carroll (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†83
AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .296 / .352
PA14
HR0
K%21
BB%7
BABIP302
ISO77
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.1-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT50
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE45
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AASpringfield Cardinals — 144133 36703 9202 12 271326391717 120300 146 323 76 — — — — — —
202123 A+Peoria Chiefs — 1814 6300 232 00 4295566431.198 214545 1711 524 192 — — — — — —
202123 APalm Beach Cardinals — 228183 591504 303212 31 322449470919 148367 1413 410 114 — — — — — —
202224 AASpringfield Cardinals — 437385 11113214 40825 114 288363442804 153331 199 354 93 — — — — — —
202325 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 422371 10212214 44613 91 275356431788 156293 1410 350 87 — — — — — —
202325 AASpringfield Cardinals — 145128 41314 15270 25 320392453845 133374 1910 373 103 — — — — — —
202426 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 513463 14328320 43964 56 309373512884 203351 198 387 105 — — — — — —
202426 INTLLeones del Escogido — 4943 9010 5141 40 209306256562 47310 2910 267 67 — — — — — —
202527 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 536479 11819214 481034 93 246320382702 136283 199 314 63 — — — — — —
202628 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 210186 47513 20361 42 253329339667 86293 1710 302 58 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 144136 34602 6252 12 250292338630 88291 174 280 76 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 1815 6300 142 00 4005006001.100 200490 226 452 192 — — — — — —
202123 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 228194 541304 194212 31 278378407785 129318 188 337 114 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 437398 10412211 27985 114 261316384701 123312 226 305 93 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 422384 9511211 31743 91 247309372681 125273 187 297 87 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 145133 39313 10330 25 293343398741 105351 237 320 103 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 513476 13126314 301214 56 275324431754 155336 246 323 105 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 536493 10615211 341304 93 215271320592 105262 246 262 63 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 210192 43412 14431 42 224280286567 62268 207 254 58 — — — — — —
202123 A MLE3 teams — 390345 932106 267116 43 270349383731 113321 187 321 104 — — — — — —
202123 A RAW3 teams — 390330 1012507 415516 43 306408445854 139347 1411 383 104 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 437398 10412211 27985 114 261316384701 123317 226 305 93 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAWSpringfield Cardinals — 437385 11113214 40825 114 288363442804 153331 199 354 93 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 567516 13414314 421073 116 260319380699 120299 197 303 91 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 567499 14315318 59883 116 287365437802 150313 1610 356 91 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 562521 14328315 331335 96 274324426750 152340 246 323 105 — — — — — —
202426 AAA RAW2 teams — 562506 15228420 481105 96 300367490857 190348 209 377 105 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 536493 10615211 341304 93 215271320592 105266 246 262 63 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAWMemphis Redbirds — 536479 11819214 481034 93 246320382702 136283 199 314 63 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 210192 43412 14431 42 224280286567 62273 207 254 58 — — — — — —
202628 AAA RAWMemphis Redbirds — 210186 47513 20361 42 253329339667 86293 1710 302 58 — — — — — —
202123 A MLE3 teams — 390345 932106 267116 43 270349383731 113316 187 321 104 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 437402 10412211 27985 114 259316381697 122312 226 305 93 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 567517 13414314 421073 116 259319379698 120293 197 303 91 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 562519 14328315 331335 96 276324428752 152336 246 323 105 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 536493 10615211 341304 93 215271320592 105262 246 262 63 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 210193 43412 14431 42 223280285565 62268 207 254 58 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AAA MLE2 teams — 562519 14328315 331335 96 276324428752 152336 246 323 105 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 536493 10615211 341304 93 215271320592 105262 246 262 63 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 210193 43412 14431 42 223280285565 62268 207 254 58 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLESTL 10% 260239 58915 17602 42 242296354650 112300 237 291 83 -5 +0 +0 -3 +6 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXSTL 10% 1413 3100 130 00 243296352648 109302 217 290 83 -0 +0 +0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLESTL 27% 162150 36613 10381 21 239293349642 109297 236 288 81 -4 +0 -2 -2 +4 -0.4
202830 MLB CTXSTL 27% 4441 10201 3100 00 239293346639 107299 237 287 81 -1 +0 -1 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4441 10201 3100 00 244295366661 122300 237 287 87 -1 +0 -1 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650606 14830015 441480 00 244295368663 124300 237 287 87 -15 +0 -8 -7 +14 -1.7
Career— MLE — 30012741 6901051365 19565236 5226 252310371681 119305 226 297 87 -6 +0 -2 -3 +6 -0.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 15023314 421418 116 253311372683 120306 226 297 87 -14 +0 -5 -7 +14 -1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 210 PAwOBA .298 → .254 (−44)K% 17.1% → 20.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.14%÷1.000×1.200——20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.52%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9926.52%
HBP% /PA0.48%—×0.940—×0.9920.44%
Singles /BIP25.33%÷1.000×0.930×1.007×0.99223.54%
Doubles /BIP3.33%÷1.000×0.830×1.007×0.9922.76%
Triples /BIP0.67%÷1.000×0.970×1.007×0.9920.65%
Home runs /BIP2.00%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9921.39%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .298 → .254; ISO .086 → .067; BABIP .293 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 536 PAwOBA .308 → .262 (−46)K% 19.2% → 24.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.22%÷0.953×1.200——24.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.77%÷0.954×0.690—×1.0036.36%
HBP% /PA0.75%—×0.940—×1.0030.70%
Singles /BIP22.07%÷0.982×0.930×1.007×1.00321.11%
Doubles /BIP5.05%÷1.033×0.830×1.007×1.0034.10%
Triples /BIP0.53%÷0.900×0.970×1.007×1.0030.58%
Home runs /BIP3.72%÷0.869×0.700—×1.0033.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .308 → .262; ISO .136 → .110; BABIP .283 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 513 PAwOBA .379 → .323 (−56)K% 18.7% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.71%÷0.953×1.200——23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.38%÷1.014×0.690—×1.0185.81%
HBP% /PA0.78%—×0.940—×1.0180.75%
Singles /BIP25.07%÷0.991×0.930×1.029×1.01824.65%
Doubles /BIP7.63%÷0.920×0.830×1.029×1.0187.21%
Triples /BIP0.82%÷1.150×0.970×1.029×1.0180.72%
Home runs /BIP5.45%÷1.020×0.700—×1.0183.81%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .379 → .323; ISO .203 → .155; BABIP .351 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 422 PAwOBA .344 → .297 (−47)K% 14.5% → 17.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.45%÷0.990×1.200——17.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.43%÷1.010×0.690—×1.0337.36%
HBP% /PA0.71%—×0.940—×1.0330.69%
Singles /BIP23.87%÷1.040×0.930×1.026×1.03322.62%
Doubles /BIP3.87%÷0.969×0.830×1.026×1.0333.52%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷1.150×0.970×1.026×1.0330.58%
Home runs /BIP4.52%÷0.955×0.700—×1.0333.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .344 → .297; ISO .156 → .126; BABIP .293 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 145 PAwOBA .369 → .320 (−48)K% 18.6% → 23.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.62%÷0.987×1.220——23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.34%÷1.003×0.700—×0.9987.21%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP32.67%÷0.997×0.920×1.037×0.99831.21%
Doubles /BIP2.97%÷1.031×0.840×1.037×0.9982.51%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷0.900×0.940×1.037×0.9981.07%
Home runs /BIP3.96%÷1.080×0.800—×0.9982.93%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .369 → .320; ISO .133 → .106; BABIP .374 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASpringfield Cardinals · 437 PAwOBA .347 → .305 (−42)K% 18.8% → 22.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.76%÷1.024×1.220——22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.92%÷1.044×0.700—×1.0126.06%
HBP% /PA1.14%—×0.870—×1.0121.01%
Singles /BIP27.06%÷1.012×0.920×1.034×1.01225.73%
Doubles /BIP4.29%÷0.935×0.840×1.034×1.0124.03%
Triples /BIP0.66%÷0.900×0.940×1.034×1.0120.72%
Home runs /BIP4.62%÷1.069×0.800—×1.0123.50%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 105, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .347 → .305; ISO .153 → .128; BABIP .331 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 APalm Beach Cardinals · 228 PAwOBA .406 → .337 (−69)K% 14.0% → 18.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.04%÷1.034×1.360——18.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.16%÷1.071×0.690—×0.9908.39%
HBP% /PA5.26%—×0.780—×0.9904.06%
Singles /BIP26.49%÷1.037×0.920×1.013×0.99023.57%
Doubles /BIP9.93%÷1.014×0.830×1.013×0.9908.16%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.013×0.9900.00%
Home runs /BIP2.65%÷0.924×0.800—×0.9902.27%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 107, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .406 → .337; ISO .148 → .129; BABIP .367 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 144 PAwOBA .314 → .280 (−34)K% 13.9% → 17.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.89%÷0.975×1.220——17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷1.020×0.690—×1.0274.34%
HBP% /PA1.39%—×0.850—×1.0271.21%
Singles /BIP23.01%÷1.003×0.940×1.050×1.02723.26%
Doubles /BIP6.19%÷1.107×0.870×1.050×1.0275.25%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.920×1.050×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.65%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0272.15%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .314 → .280; ISO .120 → .098; BABIP .300 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .