Matt Koperniak — OGILVIE

Matt KoperniakLF Memphis Redbirds

Age 28 L/R 6'0" / 208 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION210 act + 140 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .295 / .357

PA140

HR3

K%23

BB%6

BABIP295

ISO116

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A	3 teams	—	390	346	92	21	0	7	25	72	16	4	3	266	344	387	731	121	315	18	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A	3 teams	—	390	330	101	25	0	7	41	55	16	4	3	306	408	445	854	139	347	14	11	383	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	437	400	106	14	2	11	25	101	5	11	4	265	316	393	709	128	325	23	6	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	437	385	111	13	2	14	40	82	5	11	4	288	363	442	804	153	331	19	9	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	567	518	131	14	3	16	40	111	3	11	6	253	310	384	694	131	290	20	7	302	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	567	499	143	15	3	18	59	88	3	11	6	287	365	437	802	150	313	16	10	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	562	523	144	30	2	17	31	139	5	9	6	275	322	438	760	163	343	25	6	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AAA	2 teams	—	562	506	152	28	4	20	48	110	5	9	6	300	367	490	857	190	348	20	9	377	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	536	491	108	14	2	15	36	137	4	9	3	220	279	348	627	128	270	26	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	536	479	118	19	2	14	48	103	4	9	3	246	320	382	702	136	283	19	9	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	STL	—	210	192	44	4	1	3	14	43	1	4	2	229	285	307	592	78	275	20	7	260	57	-10	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
YTD	28	AAA	STL	—	210	186	47	5	1	3	20	36	1	4	2	253	329	339	667	86	293	17	10	302	89	-3	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.1
ROS	28	AAA	STL	10%	140	129	31	4	1	3	9	32	1	2	1	240	295	357	652	116	293	23	6	294	83	-3	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB	STL	10%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		293	21	7	290	80	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AAA	STL	—	224	205	46	4	1	3	15	46	1	4	2	224	281	298	578	73	270	21	7	262	59	-10	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
TOT	28	AAA	STL	—	350	321	75	8	2	6	23	75	2	6	3	234	289	327	616	93	283	21	7	274	68	-13	+0	+0	-4	+10	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	STL	27%	323	296	71	10	1	8	22	74	2	4	2	240	297	361	658	122	294	23	7	295	84	-6	+0	-1	-3	+9	-0.2
2027	29	MLB	STL	27%	88	81	19	3	0	2	6	20	1	1	1	235	295	346	641	111	293	23	7	290	80	-2	-0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	102	94	21	3	0	2	7	23	1	1	1	223	284	319	603	96	275	23	7	290	80	-2	-0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	134	19	0	13	45	147	6	6	6	224	285	321	605	97	276	23	7	290	80	-15	-1	-2	-7	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	2955	2703	683	107	11	77	188	666	36	50	25	253	310	386	696	133	305	23	6	305	91	-29	+0	-1	-32	+84	2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	150	24	2	17	41	146	8	11	5	252	309	385	694	133	304	22	6	305	91	-6	+0	-0	-7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	144	133	36	7	0	3	9	20	2	1	2	271	326	391	717	120	300	14	6	323	105	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4
2021	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	18	14	6	3	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	429	556	643	1.198	214	545	17	11	524	259	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2021	23	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	228	183	59	15	0	4	30	32	12	3	1	322	449	470	919	148	367	14	13	410	172	+19	+0	—	—	+6	2.6
2022	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	437	385	111	13	2	14	40	82	5	11	4	288	363	442	804	153	331	19	9	354	129	+14	+1	—	—	+12	2.8
2023	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	422	371	102	12	2	14	44	61	3	9	1	275	356	431	788	156	293	14	10	350	126	+12	+1	—	—	+12	2.6
2023	25	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	145	128	41	3	1	4	15	27	0	2	5	320	392	453	845	133	374	19	10	373	144	+7	-2	—	—	+4	1.0
2024	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	513	463	143	28	3	20	43	96	4	5	6	309	373	512	884	203	351	19	8	387	154	+32	-1	—	—	+15	4.6
2024	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	49	43	9	0	1	0	5	14	1	4	0	209	306	256	562	47	310	29	10	267	62	-2	+1	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	536	479	118	19	2	14	48	103	4	9	3	246	320	382	702	136	283	19	9	314	98	-1	+1	—	—	+15	1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Koperniak (OGILVIE)	28	50	45	50	45	234/289/327	93	283	6	6	21%	7%	68	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2021 · MLB	28	47→53	49→50	50	49	238/303/392	154	278	17	9	21%	8%	95	+1.4	217/278/325	108	290	11	8	27%	7%	67	-0.5	186/249/234	48	274	3	3	31%	8%	27	-0.8
✕Dominic Smith 2023 · MLB	28	49→52	47→50	46→40	46	242/306/381	139	293	14	5	22%	7%	94	+1.3	244/311/369	125	292	13	4	20%	8%	92	+1.2	245/313/369	124	291	13	4	20%	8%	91	+0.9
✕Jesus Cota 2010 · AAA	28	51→53	49→50	49→50	43	255/289/403	148	283	16	11	17%	4%	92	+1.2	243/279/382	139	274	17	8	18%	4%	82	+0.5	232/269/362	130	264	17	6	20%	4%	72	-0.2
✕Cody Asche 2018 · MLB	28	43→53	47→50	46→45	45	218/282/355	137	279	15	6	27%	8%	77	+0.1	198/267/326	128	282	13	6	33%	8%	63	-0.8	172/231/305	133	240	13	0	33%	6%	39	-1.5
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	41→50	50→55	49→50	45	210/293/369	158	277	17	6	30%	8%	86	+0.8	205/285/335	130	292	14	10	33%	8%	74	-0.1	187/270/313	126	271	14	10	34%	8%	58	-0.6
✕Xavier Paul 2014 · MLB	29	52→58	47→45	48→55	49	254/317/395	141	310	14	13	22%	8%	102	+1.8	208/263/332	124	277	14	6	29%	6%	63	-0.8	164/211/257	94	234	12	1	35%	5%	19	-2.3
✕David Dahl 2022 · MLB	28	48→54	46→55	47→55	42	240/284/375	135	299	13	6	24%	5%	82	+0.5	239/290/383	144	299	15	7	24%	6%	87	+0.8	237/289/389	152	296	17	6	25%	7%	85	+0.4
●Trenton Brooks 2023 · AAA	28	48→52	49→55	49→45	50	241/310/393	152	285	16	5	22%	8%	98	+1.6	239/319/386	147	274	16	8	18%	10%	101	+1.8	231/316/375	144	262	16	8	18%	10%	96	+1.1
✕Larry Bigbie 2006 · MLB	28	53→56	47→50	47→50	49	260/321/397	137	316	15	10	22%	8%	104	+2.0	246/308/365	119	317	11	9	24%	8%	89	+1.0	251/312/353	102	331	7	7	25%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Doug Deeds 2009 · AAA	28	52→59	48→50	49→45	42	252/302/401	149	338	15	7	29%	6%	97	+1.5	231/279/365	134	313	12	8	29%	6%	78	+0.2	217/267/345	128	292	11	7	28%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Jon Weber 2006 · AA	28	52→54	45→50	47→50	44	254/300/385	131	304	12	10	20%	6%	92	+1.2	244/295/370	126	290	11	11	19%	6%	85	+0.7	246/303/394	148	301	14	8	22%	7%	94	+0.9
✕BJ Boyd 2022 · AAA	29	49→56	49→45	56→50	42	249/296/395	146	309	17	13	25%	5%	93	+1.3	259/317/404	145	308	15	12	20%	7%	104	+2.0	289/354/441	153	330	14	10	16%	8%	125	+1.7
✕Roman Pena 2015 · AAA	28	46→56	50	46→45	47	231/303/389	158	315	17	8	31%	9%	95	+1.4	190/249/313	123	323	14	9	43%	7%	53	-1.5	157/208/255	98	291	11	8	48%	5%	18	-1.5
●Scott Moore 2012 · MLB	28	46→51	45→55	47→50	45	228/287/351	123	283	14	7	24%	7%	78	+0.2	225/290/370	145	288	16	4	27%	7%	85	+0.7	211/280/356	146	269	16	1	27%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Jack Larsen 2023 · AA	28	49→50	49→55	48→45	48	244/315/394	150	319	16	9	28%	9%	101	+1.8	240/320/350	110	328	10	9	27%	10%	92	+1.2	255/372/281	26	377	0	4	27%	14%	95	+0.3
✕Mark Payton 2020 · AAA	28	46→53	51→55	42→50	46	236/291/399	162	281	19	8	23%	7%	92	+1.2	237/292/389	152	282	16	11	21%	7%	90	+1.0	240/295/371	131	286	11	10	19%	7%	84	+0.5
✕Derek Fisher 2022 · MLB	28	45→52	50→55	48→55	47	226/301/381	156	304	18	11	31%	9%	92	+1.2	207/270/343	136	309	15	8	36%	7%	69	-0.4	124/197/248	125	185	17	0	43%	8%	11	-0.8
✕Kevin Reese 2006 · AAA	28	50→51	46→45	52→50	48	244/302/386	142	278	12	13	17%	7%	93	+1.3	239/299/357	118	278	11	11	18%	6%	84	+0.6	236/299/335	100	275	10	9	18%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Norel González 2022 · AAA	28	47	51→50	43→40	43	239/295/398	159	296	19	9	26%	6%	94	+1.3	221/280/364	143	291	16	5	29%	6%	79	+0.3	208/269/344	137	275	16	2	30%	6%	66	-0.3
✕Doug DeVore 2005 · MLB	27	46	49→55	49→45	45	235/292/388	153	295	17	9	26%	7%	89	+1.0	234/284/399	165	302	20	8	29%	6%	89	+1.0	232/276/398	167	292	21	5	28%	5%	85	+0.5