Matt KoperniakLF
Memphis Redbirds
Age 28
L/R
6'0" / 208 lbs
AAA
HR -7%K -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.1 · 2027
wRC+†81
AVG/OBP/SLG.243 / .298 / .382
PA250
HR7
K%23
BB%7
MLB%10%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
50→50
PWR
45→45
SPD
50→50
EYE
43↗45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-5M | $-9M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | 3 teams | 390 | 346 | 92 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 71 | 16 | 4 | 3 | .266 | .344 | .387 | .731 | .121 | .314 | 18 | 6 | .318 | 102 | +1 | -0 | +0 | -4 | +11 | 0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 437 | 398 | 103 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 27 | 105 | 5 | 11 | 4 | .259 | .314 | .389 | .703 | .131 | .319 | 24 | 6 | .304 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -5 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | 2 teams | 567 | 518 | 132 | 13 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 109 | 3 | 11 | 6 | .255 | .312 | .384 | .696 | .129 | .291 | 19 | 7 | .304 | 91 | -6 | -0 | +0 | -6 | +16 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | 2 teams | 562 | 522 | 142 | 27 | 2 | 18 | 32 | 130 | 5 | 9 | 6 | .272 | .320 | .435 | .755 | .163 | .329 | 23 | 6 | .326 | 108 | +5 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +16 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 536 | 493 | 109 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 131 | 4 | 9 | 3 | .221 | .277 | .345 | .622 | .124 | .269 | 24 | 6 | .271 | 66 | -21 | +1 | +0 | -6 | +15 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 47 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .214 | .267 | .310 | .576 | .095 | .229 | 17 | 6 | .253 | 52 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 203 | 187 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .246 | .299 | .390 | .689 | .144 | .287 | 22 | 6 | .300 | 87 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | 0.1 |
| TOT | 28 | MLB | STL | 250 | 229 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 53 | 1 | 4 | 1 | .240 | .293 | .376 | .668 | .135 | .279 | 21 | 6 | .291 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 20% | STL | 323 | 295 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 67 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .241 | .300 | .376 | .676 | .136 | .281 | 21 | 7 | .303 | 90 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 33% | STL | 343 | 313 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 73 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .236 | .297 | .367 | .664 | .131 | .281 | 21 | 7 | .301 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 43% | STL | 342 | 312 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 74 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .237 | .298 | .369 | .667 | .131 | .280 | 22 | 7 | .299 | 87 | -5 | +0 | -3 | -4 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 52% | STL | 332 | 303 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .234 | .295 | .366 | .661 | .132 | .279 | 22 | 7 | .295 | 84 | -6 | -0 | -4 | -4 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 70% | STL | 308 | 280 | 65 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 71 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .232 | .295 | .361 | .656 | .129 | .278 | 23 | 7 | .289 | 79 | -7 | +0 | -4 | -3 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 78% | STL | 268 | 245 | 54 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .220 | .282 | .335 | .617 | .114 | .276 | 24 | 7 | .283 | 74 | -8 | +0 | -5 | -3 | +8 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4611 | 4212 | 1033 | 159 | 16 | 123 | 310 | 1014 | 46 | 57 | 29 | .245 | .304 | .378 | .682 | .133 | .293 | 22 | 7 | .300 | 88 | -63 | -0 | -19 | -49 | +131 | -0.1 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 594 | 145 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 44 | 143 | 6 | 8 | 4 | .244 | .303 | .374 | .677 | .130 | .292 | 22 | 7 | .300 | 88 | -9 | +0 | -3 | -7 | +18 | -0.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 144 | 133 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .271 | .326 | .391 | .717 | .120 | .300 | 14 | 6 | .323 | 105 | +1 | -1 | — | — | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 18 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .429 | .556 | .643 | 1.198 | .214 | .545 | 17 | 11 | .524 | 259 | +3 | +0 | — | — | +1 | 0.4 |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 228 | 183 | 59 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 1 | .322 | .449 | .470 | .919 | .148 | .367 | 14 | 13 | .410 | 172 | +19 | +0 | — | — | +6 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 437 | 385 | 111 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 40 | 82 | 5 | 11 | 4 | .288 | .363 | .442 | .804 | .153 | .331 | 19 | 9 | .354 | 129 | +14 | +1 | — | — | +12 | 2.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 422 | 371 | 102 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 44 | 61 | 3 | 9 | 1 | .275 | .356 | .431 | .788 | .156 | .293 | 14 | 10 | .350 | 126 | +12 | +1 | — | — | +12 | 2.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 145 | 128 | 41 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 0 | 2 | 5 | .320 | .392 | .453 | .845 | .133 | .374 | 19 | 10 | .373 | 144 | +7 | -2 | — | — | +4 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 513 | 463 | 143 | 28 | 3 | 20 | 43 | 96 | 4 | 5 | 6 | .309 | .373 | .512 | .884 | .203 | .351 | 19 | 8 | .387 | 154 | +32 | -1 | — | — | +15 | 4.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | 49 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | .209 | .306 | .256 | .562 | .047 | .310 | 29 | 10 | .267 | 62 | -2 | +1 | — | — | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 536 | 479 | 118 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 48 | 103 | 4 | 9 | 3 | .246 | .320 | .382 | .702 | .136 | .283 | 19 | 9 | .314 | 98 | -1 | +1 | — | — | +15 | 1.5 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Matt Koperniak (OGILVIE) | 28 | 50 | 45 | 50 | 45 | .243/.298/.382 | .138 | .293 | 7 | 3 | 23% | 7% | 91 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Dominic Smith 2023 · MLB |
28 | 49→55 | 48→50 | 46→40 | 46 | .244/.308/.391 | .146 | .294 | 15 | 5 | 22% | 7% | 98 | +1.6 | .242/.309/.368 | .126 | .289 | 13 | 4 | 20% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .243/.312/.368 | .125 | .289 | 13 | 4 | 20% | 8% | 91 | +0.9 |
|
✕Trenton Brooks 2023 · AAA |
28 | 46→50 | 49→50 | 49→45 | 49 | .233/.299/.382 | .150 | .276 | 16 | 5 | 22% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .235/.315/.384 | .149 | .272 | 16 | 8 | 19% | 10% | 98 | +1.6 | .227/.314/.372 | .145 | .261 | 16 | 8 | 19% | 11% | 94 | +1.0 |
|
✕Dwight Smith Jr. 2021 · MLB |
28 | 48→53 | 49→50 | 50 | 49 | .243/.307/.396 | .153 | .283 | 16 | 9 | 20% | 8% | 98 | +1.6 | .221/.283/.333 | .112 | .291 | 12 | 8 | 26% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .187/.257/.236 | .049 | .270 | 3 | 3 | 29% | 8% | 31 | -0.7 |
|
✕Jesus Cota 2010 · AAA |
28 | 50→55 | 48→50 | 49→50 | 43 | .253/.288/.398 | .144 | .283 | 16 | 11 | 17% | 4% | 90 | +1.0 | .249/.285/.386 | .137 | .281 | 17 | 8 | 18% | 4% | 86 | +0.8 | .239/.276/.366 | .127 | .272 | 17 | 6 | 19% | 4% | 76 | +0.1 |
|
✕Cody Asche 2018 · MLB |
28 | 45→55 | 48→50 | 46→45 | 45 | .226/.288/.369 | .143 | .286 | 16 | 5 | 26% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .200/.269/.330 | .130 | .278 | 14 | 6 | 31% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .167/.229/.296 | .129 | .230 | 13 | 0 | 33% | 7% | 37 | -1.6 |
|
✕Caleb Gindl 2018 · AAA |
29 | 46→54 | 48→50 | 49→50 | 43 | .232/.273/.379 | .147 | .278 | 15 | 5 | 23% | 5% | 79 | +0.3 | .249/.299/.379 | .130 | .312 | 11 | 5 | 23% | 7% | 89 | +1.0 | .264/.319/.366 | .102 | .332 | 6 | 0 | 21% | 7% | 93 | +0.6 |
|
●Scott Moore 2012 · MLB |
28 | 46→51 | 46→55 | 47→50 | 45 | .229/.289/.357 | .128 | .279 | 15 | 7 | 23% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .228/.295/.372 | .144 | .289 | 15 | 4 | 26% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 | .212/.284/.356 | .144 | .269 | 16 | 1 | 26% | 7% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Kevin Reese 2006 · AAA |
28 | 50→51 | 46→45 | 52→50 | 48 | .243/.302/.386 | .143 | .278 | 12 | 13 | 17% | 6% | 93 | +1.3 | .240/.300/.360 | .120 | .279 | 11 | 11 | 18% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .236/.300/.337 | .100 | .275 | 10 | 9 | 18% | 6% | 79 | +0.2 |
|
✕Jake Goebbert 2016 · MLB |
28 | 45→51 | 50 | 45 | 51 | .230/.307/.383 | .153 | .276 | 17 | 6 | 23% | 9% | 95 | +1.4 | .212/.277/.334 | .122 | .275 | 13 | 5 | 27% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .175/.234/.279 | .104 | .230 | 12 | 0 | 29% | 6% | 35 | -1.7 |
|
✕BJ Boyd 2022 · AAA |
29 | 49→55 | 50→45 | 55→50 | 42 | .248/.295/.399 | .151 | .305 | 18 | 13 | 25% | 5% | 94 | +1.3 | .262/.319/.406 | .144 | .312 | 15 | 12 | 20% | 7% | 105 | +2.1 | .296/.360/.441 | .145 | .340 | 13 | 10 | 16% | 8% | 128 | +1.8 |
|
✕Bronson Sardinha 2011 · AAA |
28 | 51→53 | 47→50 | 47→50 | 50 | .250/.315/.394 | .144 | .303 | 13 | 9 | 21% | 8% | 101 | +1.8 | .255/.325/.401 | .146 | .310 | 15 | 11 | 21% | 9% | 107 | +2.2 | .269/.340/.404 | .135 | .322 | 16 | 10 | 20% | 9% | 110 | +1.3 |
|
✕Jon Weber 2006 · AA |
28 | 51→54 | 46→50 | 47→50 | 44 | .252/.298/.385 | .133 | .302 | 12 | 10 | 21% | 6% | 91 | +1.1 | .244/.295/.370 | .126 | .290 | 11 | 11 | 19% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .247/.304/.395 | .148 | .301 | 14 | 8 | 22% | 7% | 94 | +1.0 |
|
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA |
28 | 44→43 | 48→50 | 50→45 | 44 | .227/.276/.370 | .143 | .272 | 17 | 9 | 23% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .245/.293/.368 | .123 | .286 | 13 | 7 | 18% | 6% | 84 | +0.6 | .273/.321/.381 | .108 | .305 | 10 | 3 | 14% | 6% | 97 | +0.8 |
|
✕Jack Larsen 2023 · AA |
28 | 48→49 | 48→50 | 48→45 | 48 | .237/.310/.383 | .146 | .313 | 15 | 9 | 28% | 9% | 95 | +1.4 | .235/.316/.342 | .107 | .327 | 10 | 9 | 28% | 10% | 88 | +0.9 | .244/.361/.268 | .025 | .374 | 0 | 4 | 29% | 14% | 87 | +0.2 |
|
✕Norel González 2022 · AAA |
28 | 46 | 51→50 | 43→40 | 44 | .237/.294/.396 | .159 | .291 | 19 | 9 | 26% | 6% | 93 | +1.3 | .225/.283/.376 | .151 | .291 | 18 | 6 | 28% | 6% | 83 | +0.6 | .212/.274/.357 | .145 | .275 | 18 | 2 | 29% | 6% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB |
28 | 42→49 | 50→55 | 48→50 | 44 | .215/.293/.374 | .159 | .285 | 17 | 6 | 30% | 8% | 87 | +0.8 | .198/.279/.323 | .125 | .282 | 13 | 10 | 33% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .182/.264/.306 | .124 | .259 | 14 | 10 | 34% | 8% | 54 | -0.7 |
|
✕Cedric Hunter 2016 · AAA |
28 | 49→57 | 49→55 | 47→50 | 46 | .248/.291/.402 | .154 | .272 | 16 | 10 | 16% | 5% | 93 | +1.3 | .238/.270/.364 | .126 | .274 | 14 | 10 | 19% | 4% | 74 | -0.1 | .249/.291/.395 | .146 | .272 | 17 | 5 | 15% | 6% | 87 | +0.6 |
|
✕Carlos Moncrief 2016 · AAA |
27 | 46→52 | 46→50 | 50 | 45 | .231/.286/.365 | .134 | .293 | 14 | 11 | 26% | 7% | 81 | +0.4 | .225/.286/.340 | .115 | .301 | 11 | 11 | 27% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .228/.288/.334 | .106 | .311 | 9 | 11 | 28% | 7% | 70 | -0.1 |
|
✕Nicky Delmonico 2019 · MLB |
27 | 46→47 | 50→55 | 46→45 | 48 | .234/.302/.391 | .157 | .283 | 17 | 5 | 24% | 8% | 95 | +1.4 | .223/.290/.360 | .137 | .287 | 14 | 6 | 26% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .222/.286/.362 | .139 | .293 | 14 | 4 | 28% | 7% | 82 | +0.1 |
|
✕Doug DeVore 2005 · MLB |
27 | 47 | 50→55 | 49→45 | 45 | .236/.294/.390 | .154 | .296 | 17 | 9 | 26% | 7% | 91 | +1.1 | .234/.283/.399 | .165 | .301 | 20 | 7 | 28% | 6% | 89 | +0.9 | .232/.276/.398 | .167 | .292 | 21 | 5 | 28% | 5% | 85 | +0.5 |