Mason Fluharty — OGILVIE

Mason Fluharty P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7785vR 93

ERA3.64

FIP3.75

K%25.2%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

Whiff%

p7228.8%

p6825.6%

xwOBA vs

p900.262

SL (40%)

CT (50%)

CH (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.808 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	10	0	15	65	21	7	2	0%	1.5	24.9%	12.4%	12.5%	4.0%	3.52	4.79	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	10	0	15	65	21	7	2	0%	1.5	32.3%	10.8%	21.5%	3.1%	3.52	3.43	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	58	251	75	19	7	0%	1.2	23.9%	8.4%	15.4%	3.3%	3.28	3.94	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	58	251	75	19	7	0%	1.2	23.9%	8.4%	15.4%	3.3%	3.28	3.94	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	58	251	75	19	7	0%	1.2	29.9%	7.6%	22.3%	2.8%	3.28	3.07	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	56	0	67	277	76	24	8	0%	1.2	22.8%	7.8%	15.0%	3.2%	3.63	3.93	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	56	0	67	277	76	24	8	0%	1.2	22.8%	7.8%	15.0%	3.2%	3.63	3.93	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	56	0	67	277	76	24	8	0%	1.2	27.4%	8.7%	18.8%	2.9%	3.63	3.46	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	64	267	71	27	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	2.2%	4.24	3.42	+0.9
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	64	267	71	27	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.9%	15.8%	2.2%	4.24	3.42	+0.9
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	64	267	71	27	6	0%	1.0	26.6%	10.1%	16.5%	2.2%	4.24	3.37	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			132	4	111	461	119	44	12	3%	0.8	25.8%	9.5%	16.3%	2.6%	3.90	3.55	+1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	77	4	58	246	63	24	6	5%	0.8	25.6%	9.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.41	3.51	+0.7
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	77	4	58	246	63	24	6	5%	0.8	25.6%	9.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.41	3.51	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	MLB RAW	TOR	77	4	58	246	63	24	6	5%	0.8	25.6%	9.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.41	3.51	+0.7
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	TOR	77	4	58	246	63	24	6	5%	0.8	25.6%	9.8%	15.9%	2.4%	3.41	3.51	+0.7
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	2.8%	3.64	3.75	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.7%	15.5%	2.8%	3.64	3.75	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	64	271	69	26	7	—	—	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.5%	3.43	3.53	+0.8
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	64	270	69	26	7	—	—	25.7%	9.8%	15.9%	2.5%	3.43	3.54	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TOR	68	0	72	303	78	28	8	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	2.7%	3.99	3.99	+0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	TOR	68	0	72	303	78	28	8	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	2.7%	3.98	3.97	+0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TOR	67	0	71	299	77	28	8	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.01	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	TOR	65	0	69	290	74	28	8	0%	1.1	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	TOR	62	0	66	277	69	27	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TOR	59	0	62	260	63	26	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.35	4.46	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TOR	65	0	68	287	73	27	8	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	2.7%	3.99	3.99	+0.5
2028	26	MLB CTX	TOR	65	0	68	287	74	27	8	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	2.7%	3.98	3.97	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	TOR	64	0	67	283	73	27	8	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.01	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	TOR	62	0	65	274	70	26	8	0%	1.0	25.7%	9.6%	16.1%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TOR	59	0	62	262	66	26	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TOR	56	0	59	249	61	25	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	3.2%	4.35	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		509	4	506	2130	543	204	60	1%	1.0	25.5%	9.6%	15.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.70	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	2	200	842	215	81	24	1%	1.0	25.5%	9.6%	15.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.70	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		257	4	262	1106	271	101	32	2%	1.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.3%	2.9%	3.65	3.77	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		196	3	200	845	207	77	24	2%	1.0	24.5%	9.1%	15.3%	2.9%	3.65	3.77	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mason Fluharty (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	24.7%	9.7%	2.9%	—	3.99	25.7%	16.4%	214	-0.20	—	—	—
Steven Okert L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	24	SU	4.17	22.5%	10.9%	2.9%	.331	3.32	23.0%	16.9%	145	-0.85	2.49	605	83
Jake Palisch L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	21.0%	8.2%	3.4%	.304	4.64	11.2%	3.0%	274	+0.44	3.88	317	82
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	80
Ian Krol L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	21.8%	11.5%	1.6%	.293	3.60	22.2%	13.9%	169	-0.02	2.80	344	79
Alberto Baldonado L 2017 · 4.46 FIP	24	SU	4.46	21.2%	11.1%	3.2%	.291	4.14	23.0%	9.2%	84	-0.32	2.47	386	78
Sammy Peralta L 2022 · 3.58 FIP	24	SU	3.58	23.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.300	3.94	19.3%	12.3%	236	+0.36	3.56	410	77
Zac Rosscup L 2015 · 4.84 FIP	27	SU	4.84	24.6%	11.0%	4.4%	.296	2.85	29.5%	21.7%	40	-1.99	2.56	160	76
Josh Osich L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SU	3.41	21.2%	7.0%	2.2%	.241	4.68	18.1%	7.1%	137	+1.27	3.41	315	75
Dylan Lee L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	19.5%	8.5%	3.4%	.277	2.62	29.0%	25.0%	113	-1.79	1.96	547	74
Tyler Webb L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	25	SU	3.80	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.324	3.31	24.3%	17.3%	185	-0.49	3.10	337	74
Kyle Nelson L 2019 · 4.00 FIP	23	SU	4.00	27.8%	8.4%	4.0%	.241	3.38	20.8%	8.1%	63	-0.62	0.90	214	73
Kolton Ingram L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	26.7%	15.3%	1.9%	.306	3.99	23.3%	12.0%	173	+0.15	3.32	239	72
Luis Avilán L 2015 · 3.40 FIP	26	SU	3.40	22.3%	5.9%	2.6%	.276	2.70	26.1%	17.6%	145	-0.70	2.62	256	71
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	71
Brandon Eisert L 2022 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	27.3%	6.4%	3.7%	.311	4.09	23.3%	16.0%	192	+0.45	3.28	379	70
Tyler Samaniego L 2023 · 3.44 FIP	24	SU	3.44	21.0%	12.2%	1.0%	.380	3.57	20.3%	12.2%	100	+0.13	2.65	195	70
Darien Núñez L 2018 · 3.27 FIP	25	SU	3.27	26.4%	11.0%	1.8%	.377	2.59	34.2%	23.5%	78	-0.68	2.48	122	70
Tyler Gilbert L 2018 · 3.50 FIP	24	SU	3.50	20.6%	5.0%	2.7%	.245	3.88	19.3%	10.9%	140	+0.38	2.61	708	70
Jace Fry L 2017 · 3.23 FIP	24	SU	3.23	21.9%	12.6%	0.7%	.299	3.57	29.7%	17.1%	126	+0.34	2.53	294	69
Kirby Snead L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	20.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.318	3.10	24.6%	15.6%	98	-0.93	2.12	388	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	25.3%	9.6%	1.11	4.09
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06