Mason Fluharty
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.23
FIP4.09
xFIP3.51
SIERA3.00
K%24.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%15.3%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5560
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p9031.9%
K%
p7126.0%
xwOBA vs
p790.284
SL (42%)
CT (52%)
CH (6%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 10 | 0 | 15 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 4.1% | 3.52 | 4.80 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 48 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 23.9% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 3.28 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 56 | 0 | 67 | 277 | 76 | 24 | 8 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 3.63 | 3.97 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 66 | 0 | 64 | 267 | 71 | 27 | 6 | 25.9% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 4.24 | 3.31 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 10 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.14 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | TOR | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 64 | 273 | 67 | 26 | 7 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.79 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 25 | 7 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 25 | 7 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 68 | 25 | 7 | 24.9% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 24.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 24 | 7 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.15 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 57 | 23 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 45 | 21 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 37 | 20 | 6 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 1 | 211 | 892 | 222 | 85 | 25 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.74 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 180 | 1 | 200 | 847 | 211 | 81 | 24 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Fluharty (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.03 | 24.9% | 15.7% | 194 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Steven Okert L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .331 | 3.38 | 23.0% | 16.9% | 145 | -0.79 | 2.51 | 537 | 85 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.64 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 1.7% | .293 | 3.62 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 169 | -0.02 | 2.81 | 344 | 84 |
| Alberto Baldonado L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.44 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .291 | 4.16 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 84 | -0.28 | 2.47 | 386 | 83 |
| Jake Palisch L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 3.4% | .304 | 4.34 | 13.2% | 6.1% | 155 | +0.14 | 3.90 | 198 | 80 |
| Sammy Peralta L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.59 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .300 | 3.97 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 236 | +0.38 | 3.54 | 347 | 80 |
| Dylan Lee L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .277 | 2.55 | 29.0% | 25.0% | 113 | -1.87 | 2.48 | 484 | 79 |
| Cam Alldred L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.61 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.37 | 3.70 | 332 | 79 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 78 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.49 | 18.8% | 13.3% | 0.5% | .309 | 3.55 | 24.1% | 16.0% | 176 | +0.06 | 2.48 | 461 | 77 |
| Brennan Bernardino L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.13 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .326 | 3.79 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 94 | -0.34 | 2.52 | 406 | 76 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 76 |
| Josh Osich L 2028 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 75 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | .268 | 3.50 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.76 | 1.84 | 238 | 73 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2029 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 73 |
| Adam Kolarek L 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.81 | 17.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | .281 | 2.61 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 183 | -1.20 | 2.20 | 504 | 73 |
| Garrett McDaniels L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.50 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 1.2% | .306 | 4.46 | 21.5% | 6.4% | 44 | +0.96 | 3.11 | 130 | 72 |
| Tyler Webb L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 24.3% | 17.3% | 185 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 337 | 72 |
| Angel Perdomo L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.56 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .315 | 4.03 | 32.7% | 17.7% | 100 | +0.47 | 2.82 | 528 | 72 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 72 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.91 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.61 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.70 | 1.71 | 206 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.808 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $17M | +$6M | ||