Justin Bruihl — OGILVIE

Justin Bruihl P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9199vR 107

ERA3.82

FIP3.86

K%18.1%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p1018.4%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

SL (40%)

CH (9%)

SI (44%)

FB-0.7 (50%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	21	0	32	159	44	24	1	0%	1.5	18.8%	18.9%	-0.1%	0.9%	8.24	4.38	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Ogden Raptors	21	0	32	159	44	24	1	0%	1.5	27.7%	15.1%	12.6%	0.6%	8.24	3.01	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	42	163	51	9	0	0%	1.7	23.2%	7.0%	16.1%	0.0%	1.30	2.03	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	42	163	51	9	0	0%	1.7	31.3%	5.5%	25.8%	0.0%	1.30	1.30	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	47	3	56	221	61	13	4	6%	1.2	24.3%	6.1%	18.1%	2.0%	2.72	2.92	+1.1
2021	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	47	3	56	221	61	13	4	6%	1.2	27.6%	5.9%	21.7%	1.8%	2.72	2.55	+1.4
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	54	244	37	24	6	2%	1.1	14.0%	10.2%	3.7%	2.5%	3.67	4.58	-0.0
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	54	244	37	24	6	2%	1.1	15.2%	9.8%	5.3%	2.5%	3.67	4.51	+0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	56	239	50	19	3	2%	1.1	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	1.2%	4.31	3.13	+1.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	56	239	50	19	3	2%	1.1	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	1.2%	4.31	3.13	+1.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	56	239	50	19	3	2%	1.1	20.9%	7.9%	13.0%	1.3%	4.31	3.03	+1.0
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	47	214	52	20	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.2%	1.3%	3.80	3.27	+0.7
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	47	214	52	20	3	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.6%	11.2%	1.3%	3.80	3.27	+0.7
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	47	214	52	20	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	9.3%	15.0%	1.4%	3.80	2.99	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	56	241	67	18	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	6.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.88	3.26	+0.9
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	56	241	67	18	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	6.9%	17.5%	2.4%	3.88	3.26	+0.9
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	56	241	67	18	5	0%	1.0	27.8%	7.5%	20.3%	2.1%	3.88	2.83	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			161	2	162	710	121	47	14	1%	1.0	17.0%	6.6%	10.4%	2.0%	4.21	3.60	+1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	67	0	73	324	52	25	4	0%	1.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	1.3%	3.59	3.45	+1.0
YTD	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	67	0	73	324	52	25	4	0%	1.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	1.3%	3.59	3.45	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	STL	67	0	73	324	52	25	4	0%	1.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	1.2%	3.59	3.40	+1.0
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	STL	67	0	73	324	52	25	4	0%	1.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	1.2%	3.59	3.40	+1.0
ROS	29	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.6%	10.6%	2.4%	3.82	3.86	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	STL	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.6%	10.6%	2.4%	3.82	3.86	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	79	349	56	27	5	—	—	16.2%	7.7%	8.5%	1.3%	3.61	3.48	+1.2
FULL	29	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	79	332	56	27	5	—	—	17.0%	8.1%	8.9%	1.4%	3.61	3.45	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	STL	67	0	70	296	53	23	7	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	2.3%	4.11	4.21	+0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	276	47	23	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	2.5%	4.31	4.44	+0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	STL	64	0	67	283	51	22	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	7.9%	10.0%	2.3%	4.11	4.21	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	STL	59	0	62	262	45	21	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	2.5%	4.31	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		289	2	297	1278	221	93	27	1%	1.0	17.3%	7.2%	10.0%	2.2%	4.20	3.74	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	1	200	861	149	63	18	1%	1.0	17.3%	7.2%	10.0%	2.2%	4.20	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		359	5	416	1805	356	160	28	1%	1.2	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	1.5%	3.77	3.40	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	2	200	868	171	77	13	1%	1.2	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	1.5%	3.77	3.40	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Bruihl (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.05	21.3%	7.4%	2.6%	—	4.32	17.5%	9.5%	136	+0.27	—	—	—
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	81
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	79
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	79
James Russell L 2015 · 3.71 FIP	29	SU	3.71	13.5%	4.7%	2.1%	.331	4.20	14.1%	8.7%	111	+0.49	2.66	233	79
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	78
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	78
Franklin Morales L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	29	SU	3.37	15.9%	5.4%	1.7%	.271	4.02	15.0%	7.0%	39	+0.65	3.37	101	77
Daniel Rodriguez L 2015 · 2.89 FIP	30	SU	2.89	20.2%	9.4%	0.6%	.256	4.17	16.3%	5.9%	234	+1.28	2.89	391	77
Jorge Ibarra L 2017 · 3.09 FIP	29	SU	3.09	19.3%	6.5%	1.4%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	2.55	146	76
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	76
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	76
Dan Jennings L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	29	SU	3.18	17.8%	10.8%	0.4%	.304	4.10	17.8%	9.3%	127	+0.92	3.11	244	75
Rodolfo Aguilar L 2017 · 3.20 FIP	28	SU	3.20	15.1%	7.9%	0.7%	.339	5.46	8.1%	-5.7%	15	+2.26	2.93	115	74
Josh Edgin L 2016 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	22.1%	13.2%	1.3%	.359	3.81	23.2%	13.6%	80	+0.17	3.63	113	74
Tyler Olson L 2019 · 3.86 FIP	29	SU	3.86	20.0%	10.0%	2.1%	.326	3.96	21.6%	12.9%	31	+0.10	3.15	263	74
Scott Alexander L 2018 · 3.30 FIP	29	SU	3.30	20.9%	9.3%	1.4%	.290	4.64	13.3%	5.0%	45	+1.34	2.90	426	73
Lucas Luetge L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	29	SU	3.65	21.0%	10.8%	1.8%	.346	3.56	22.0%	14.2%	100	-0.09	2.53	430	73
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	73
Blaine Hardy L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	29	SU	3.32	16.2%	6.2%	1.5%	.246	3.82	20.6%	14.7%	231	+0.50	2.74	417	73
Josh Smoker L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	29	SU	3.66	22.1%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	6.58	14.2%	3.4%	14	+2.92	2.71	230	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	70	18.9%	7.8%	0.95	4.14
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47