Justin Bruihl
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 28 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9099vR 108
ERA3.72
FIP3.80
K%18.7%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.6
Whiff%
p1018.1%
K%
p1015.2%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
SL (37%)
CH (10%)
SI (46%)
CT (2%)
FB-0.7 (52%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 21 | 0 | 32 | 159 | 44 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.8% | 18.9% | -0.1% | 0.9% | 8.24 | 4.38 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 21 | 0 | 32 | 159 | 44 | 24 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 27.7% | 15.1% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 8.24 | 3.01 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 42 | 163 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.2% | 7.0% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 2.03 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 42 | 163 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 31.3% | 5.5% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 1.30 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 47 | 3 | 56 | 221 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 24.3% | 6.1% | 18.1% | 2.1% | 2.72 | 2.96 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 47 | 3 | 56 | 221 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 6% | 1.2 | 27.6% | 5.9% | 21.7% | 1.8% | 2.72 | 2.55 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 54 | 244 | 37 | 24 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 1 | 54 | 244 | 37 | 24 | 6 | 2% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 56 | 239 | 50 | 19 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 1.1% | 4.31 | 3.09 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 52 | 1 | 56 | 239 | 50 | 19 | 3 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 1.3% | 4.31 | 3.03 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 47 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 3.80 | 3.44 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 47 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 1.4% | 3.80 | 2.99 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.48 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 7.5% | 20.3% | 2.1% | 3.88 | 2.83 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 42 | 0 | 47 | 210 | 32 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 3.66 | 3.42 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 3.72 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 3.72 | 3.80 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 75 | 328 | 54 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 16.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 1.4% | 3.68 | 3.56 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 75 | 315 | 54 | 28 | 5 | — | — | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 1.5% | 3.68 | 3.57 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 62 | 0 | 65 | 276 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 58 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 43 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.65 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 340 | 2 | 350 | 1500 | 263 | 121 | 35 | 1% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.34 | 3.92 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 194 | 1 | 200 | 856 | 150 | 69 | 20 | 1% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.34 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 334 | 5 | 390 | 1691 | 342 | 161 | 27 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 3.79 | 3.46 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 171 | 3 | 200 | 868 | 176 | 82 | 14 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 3.79 | 3.46 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Bruihl (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.55 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 196 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 80 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 78 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 78 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.56 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .300 | 3.44 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -1.12 | 2.81 | 223 | 78 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 78 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 77 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.64 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.31 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 111 | +0.67 | 2.69 | 233 | 77 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 76 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.36 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.06 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.36 | 101 | 76 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .359 | 3.67 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.09 | 3.36 | 113 | 75 |
| Jorge Ibarra L 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.02 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 146 | 75 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .346 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 100 | +0.05 | 2.52 | 430 | 74 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.17 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 0.4% | .304 | 4.18 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 127 | +1.01 | 3.09 | 244 | 74 |
| Tyler Olson L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .326 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 31 | +0.30 | 2.92 | 263 | 74 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.38 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 1.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 45 | +1.43 | 2.90 | 414 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.82 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .253 | 4.48 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 46 | -0.34 | 3.80 | 172 | 73 |
| Rodolfo Aguilar L 2025 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.16 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 0.6% | .339 | 5.26 | 8.1% | -5.7% | 15 | +2.10 | 2.81 | 115 | 73 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 1.1% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 160 | 72 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.84 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .318 | 6.37 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +2.53 | 2.66 | 230 | 72 |
| Brian Duensing L 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 19.0% | 8.8% | 1.02 | 4.32 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |