Justin Bruihl
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.4
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.54
FIP3.97
xFIP6.06
SIERA5.77
K%23.8%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%15.1%
IP50
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL5050
CMD5555
K†4545
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1018.0%
K%
p1010.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.392
SL (35%)
CH (11%)
SI (43%)
CT (2%)
FB-0.7 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 21 | 0 | 32 | 159 | 44 | 24 | 1 | 18.8% | 18.9% | 0.9% | 8.24 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 25 | 0 | 42 | 163 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 23.2% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 1.30 | 2.03 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 47 | 3 | 56 | 221 | 61 | 13 | 4 | 24.3% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 2.72 | 2.89 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 49 | 1 | 54 | 244 | 37 | 24 | 6 | 14.0% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 3.67 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 52 | 1 | 56 | 239 | 50 | 19 | 3 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 4.31 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44 | 0 | 47 | 214 | 52 | 20 | 3 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 1.3% | 3.80 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 54 | 0 | 56 | 241 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.25 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 6 | 8 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 34 | 15 | 5 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 50 | 218 | 40 | 23 | 6 | 18.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 5.13 | 3.56 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 18.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 18.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | STL | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | STL | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 15.2% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 302 | 5 | 352 | 1524 | 316 | 151 | 24 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 3.91 | 3.47 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 3 | 200 | 866 | 180 | 86 | 14 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 3.91 | 3.47 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Bruihl (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.69 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 141 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2029 · 3.69 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.69 | 15.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% | .214 | 4.23 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 107 | +0.54 | 3.69 | 146 | 76 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.45 | 14.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .356 | 4.80 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 242 | -0.65 | 3.45 | 512 | 75 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 74 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.66 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.8% | .346 | 3.60 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 100 | -0.06 | 2.60 | 430 | 74 |
| Brian Duensing L 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 74 |
| James Russell L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.59 | 13.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .331 | 4.20 | 14.1% | 8.7% | 111 | +0.61 | 2.65 | 233 | 73 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 73 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 73 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 73 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.18 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 0.4% | .304 | 4.09 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 127 | +0.91 | 3.06 | 244 | 73 |
| Tyler Olson L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.87 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 4.01 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 31 | +0.14 | 3.08 | 263 | 73 |
| Marlon Arias L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 72 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 277 | 72 |
| Roy Merritt L 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.92 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .293 | 3.92 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 116 | +0.00 | 3.92 | 129 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 72 |
| Jason Vargas L 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.25 | 14.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.61 | 19.2% | 12.1% | 285 | +0.36 | 4.04 | 478 | 71 |
| Colt Hynes L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 71 |
| Blaine Hardy L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.30 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 1.4% | .246 | 3.80 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 231 | +0.50 | 2.75 | 417 | 71 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 71 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.