Orion Kerkering — OGILVIE

Orion Kerkering P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 204 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9688vR 80

ERA3.40

FIP3.44

K%25.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%15.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p5526.0%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

SL+0.5 (43%)

SI (18%)

FB-1.4 (52%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.058 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.8M
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	28	7	1	0	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	0.0%	3.86	1.44	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	7	28	7	1	0	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	0.0%	3.86	1.53	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	52	0	57	222	85	14	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	3.1%	1.59	3.34	+0.8
2023	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	52	0	57	222	85	14	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	3.1%	1.59	3.34	+0.8
2023	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	52	0	57	222	85	14	4	0%	1.1	38.3%	6.3%	32.0%	1.8%	1.59	1.76	+1.9
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	3%	1.0	28.8%	6.6%	22.2%	0.7%	2.14	1.90	+2.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	3%	1.0	28.8%	6.6%	22.2%	0.7%	2.14	1.90	+2.1
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	3%	1.0	30.7%	6.2%	24.5%	0.7%	2.14	1.75	+2.3
2025	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.1%	3.30	3.33	+0.9
2025	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.1%	3.30	3.33	+0.9
2025	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.3%	3.30	3.43	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			196	2	182	789	204	74	12	1%	0.9	25.9%	9.4%	16.5%	1.5%	3.16	2.94	+3.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	64	0	60	267	64	31	4	0%	0.9	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	1.5%	3.90	3.49	+0.8
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	64	0	60	267	64	31	4	0%	0.9	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	1.5%	3.90	3.49	+0.8
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	PHI	4	0	4	15	5	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	2.25	0.29	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	PHI	60	0	56	252	59	31	4	0%	0.9	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	1.6%	4.02	3.55	+0.7
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	PHI	60	0	56	252	59	31	4	0%	0.9	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	1.6%	4.02	3.55	+0.7
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	9.8%	15.3%	2.2%	3.40	3.44	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	PHI	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.0%	9.8%	15.3%	2.4%	3.49	3.53	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	66	292	70	33	5	—	—	24.1%	11.5%	12.6%	1.6%	3.86	3.49	+0.9
FULL	25	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	62	261	70	33	5	—	—	26.9%	12.8%	14.1%	1.8%	4.11	3.42	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PHI	66	0	69	292	75	29	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.8%	15.8%	2.1%	3.69	3.70	+0.7
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	65	0	68	288	74	28	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	2.1%	3.72	3.73	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	63	0	66	280	71	28	6	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	2.2%	3.78	3.82	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	PHI	60	0	63	267	66	27	6	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	2.4%	3.90	3.98	+0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	PHI	63	0	66	279	71	27	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.8%	15.8%	2.2%	3.77	3.78	+0.7
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	62	0	65	274	70	27	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.8%	15.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.81	+0.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	60	0	63	266	68	27	6	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	2.4%	3.87	3.91	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	PHI	57	0	60	253	63	26	6	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	2.5%	3.99	4.07	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		443	2	441	1884	481	183	38	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.7%	15.8%	2.0%	3.57	3.27	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	1	200	854	218	83	17	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.7%	15.8%	2.0%	3.57	3.27	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		259	2	251	1057	276	92	18	1%	1.0	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	1.7%	2.76	2.96	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		206	2	200	842	220	74	15	1%	1.0	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	1.7%	2.76	2.96	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orion Kerkering (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.49	27.0%	8.0%	2.3%	—	3.75	25.5%	15.6%	204	+0.26	—	—	—
Michael Feliz R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	25	SU	3.94	25.3%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	3.92	28.9%	19.8%	107	-0.02	2.77	442	81
Kelvin Herrera R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	25	SU	3.35	22.4%	8.7%	1.9%	.245	3.35	25.0%	19.6%	176	-0.00	2.33	297	79
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	79
Jake Barrett R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	22.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.250	3.86	24.1%	12.5%	118	+0.13	1.48	230	78
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	78
Bruce Rondón R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	29.0%	10.0%	2.6%	.284	3.41	25.1%	10.5%	82	+0.05	3.31	184	78
Shane Smith R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	23	SU	3.52	28.1%	10.4%	2.7%	.259	3.59	22.9%	13.1%	284	+0.07	3.01	342	78
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	77
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.15	246	77
Matt Carasiti R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.36	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.32	2.80	312	77
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	76
Cody Carroll R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	24.2%	12.7%	2.0%	.282	6.46	24.3%	12.3%	24	+2.73	3.67	311	76
Emilio Pagán R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	25	SU	4.08	26.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.267	3.49	29.2%	23.8%	214	-0.59	2.67	719	76
Alex Hoppe R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	23.7%	9.2%	3.5%	.371	3.94	20.7%	8.7%	184	-0.27	3.13	233	76
Arquimedes Caminero R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	23.0%	8.5%	2.4%	.265	4.45	17.9%	6.5%	61	+0.91	3.54	173	76
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	76
Dovydas Neverauskas R 2018 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	25.1%	12.3%	3.8%	.281	4.65	26.5%	16.4%	80	+0.02	2.74	353	76
Randall Delgado R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	25	SU	3.61	23.7%	10.1%	2.2%	.284	3.78	20.3%	12.4%	167	+0.17	3.09	290	76
JT Chargois R 2016 · 2.58 FIP	25	SU	2.58	22.0%	8.5%	0.5%	.315	3.50	25.9%	16.5%	101	+0.92	2.58	362	76
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	25.7%	9.6%	0.86	3.70
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12