Orion Kerkering
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 204 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8778vR 69
ERA3.24
FIP3.29
K%26.5%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%17.1%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.5
Whiff%
p6728.0%
K%
p7025.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.267
SL+0.5 (45%)
SI (19%)
FB-1.4 (50%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 3.6% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.44 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.0% | 3.6% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 1.53 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 222 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 7.4% | 20.9% | 3.4% | 1.59 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 5 levels | 52 | 0 | 57 | 222 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 38.3% | 6.3% | 32.0% | 1.8% | 1.59 | 1.76 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 68 | 2 | 67 | 274 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 3% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 6.6% | 22.2% | 0.8% | 2.14 | 1.92 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 68 | 2 | 67 | 274 | 84 | 17 | 2 | 3% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 6.2% | 24.5% | 0.7% | 2.14 | 1.75 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 0 | 60 | 266 | 65 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.30 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 69 | 0 | 60 | 266 | 65 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 2.3% | 3.30 | 3.43 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 43 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 46 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 1.9% | 2.41 | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 31 | 0 | 32 | 136 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 17.1% | 2.2% | 3.24 | 3.29 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | PHI | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 36 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 17.1% | 2.3% | 3.26 | 3.31 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 73 | 309 | 82 | 33 | 6 | — | — | 26.6% | 10.6% | 15.9% | 2.0% | 2.78 | 3.44 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 69 | 292 | 82 | 33 | 6 | — | — | 28.1% | 11.2% | 16.8% | 2.1% | 2.95 | 3.30 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 66 | 0 | 69 | 292 | 78 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 9.4% | 17.4% | 2.2% | 3.63 | 3.64 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 77 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 9.5% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.66 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 280 | 75 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 3.72 | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 70 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 2.5% | 3.84 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 64 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 75 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 9.4% | 17.4% | 2.3% | 3.65 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 73 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 9.5% | 17.3% | 2.3% | 3.68 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 71 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 9.7% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 66 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 501 | 2 | 505 | 2139 | 567 | 203 | 46 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 2.2% | 3.40 | 3.25 | +12.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 1 | 200 | 847 | 225 | 80 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 2.2% | 3.40 | 3.25 | +5.0 | ||
| Career | — | 238 | 2 | 232 | 963 | 259 | 81 | 19 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 2.41 | 2.97 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 205 | 2 | 200 | 830 | 223 | 70 | 16 | 1% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 8.5% | 18.4% | 1.9% | 2.41 | 2.97 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Orion Kerkering (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.51 | 26.9% | 8.0% | 2.3% | — | 3.69 | 26.7% | 17.2% | 204 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| David Morgan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.58 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .265 | 3.50 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 22 | -0.08 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.44 | 29.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .284 | 3.40 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 82 | -0.04 | 3.31 | 184 | 78 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.34 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 1.9% | .245 | 3.33 | 25.0% | 19.6% | 176 | -0.01 | 2.32 | 297 | 77 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .282 | 3.67 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | +0.13 | 2.58 | 448 | 77 |
| Michael Feliz R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.84 | 25.3% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.81 | 28.9% | 19.8% | 107 | -0.03 | 2.82 | 442 | 76 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 76 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.69 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .250 | 3.81 | 24.1% | 12.5% | 118 | +0.12 | 1.48 | 230 | 76 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.38 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.17 | 2.88 | 312 | 76 |
| Nick Anderson R 2027 · 2.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.74 | 25.2% | 7.7% | 1.5% | .276 | 2.63 | 32.7% | 26.6% | 179 | -0.11 | 0.97 | 411 | 76 |
| Blake Treinen R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 75 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 75 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 75 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2029 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.48 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 61 | +1.02 | 3.46 | 173 | 75 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.05 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 1.3% | .280 | 4.18 | 22.9% | 7.4% | 77 | +1.13 | 3.05 | 134 | 75 |
| Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.28 | 26.2% | 11.5% | 3.5% | .267 | 3.48 | 29.2% | 23.8% | 214 | -0.80 | 2.70 | 698 | 75 |
| Kaleb Fleck R 2027 · 2.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.67 | 25.8% | 9.8% | 0.9% | .331 | 3.87 | 21.8% | 13.2% | 125 | +1.20 | 2.67 | 177 | 74 |
| Dovydas Neverauskas R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.51 | 25.1% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .281 | 4.64 | 26.5% | 16.4% | 80 | +0.13 | 2.76 | 353 | 74 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.57 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .284 | 3.71 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | +0.14 | 3.05 | 290 | 74 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 74 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.43 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .257 | 2.89 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.54 | 2.31 | 225 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 66 | 26.5% | 9.4% | 0.93 | 3.71 |
| David Phelps ('22) | 6 | 62 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 0.87 | 3.55 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |
| Brad Brach ('21) | 6 | 62 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 0.84 | 3.50 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |