Orion Kerkering — OGILVIE

Orion Kerkering P Philadelphia Phillies

+1.1 WAR

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 204 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.0 · 2026

ERA3.29

FIP3.61

xFIP6.64

SIERA6.06

K%25.4%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%16.9%

IP61

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.0peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p9097.5

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p6224.4%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

SL+0.5 (41%)

SI (22%)

FB-1.4 (53%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	21	A	Clearwater Threshers	6	0	7	28	7	1	0	—	—	—	3.86	—	—
2023	22	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	52	0	57	222	85	14	4	28.3%	7.4%	3.2%	1.59	3.39	+1.0
2024	23	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	28.8%	6.6%	0.7%	2.14	1.89	+2.4
2025	24	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	24.4%	9.0%	2.0%	3.30	3.30	+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	8	0	8	33	9	1	0	—	—	—	3.24	—	—
ROS	25	MLB	PHI	57	—	57	239	65	20	6	27.2%	8.4%	2.3%	3.20	3.53	+0.9
2026 Total	25	MLB	PHI	—	—	65	272	74	21	6	27.2%	7.8%	2.0%	3.21	3.08	+1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	26	MLB	PHI	11	11	61	258	70	22	6	27.4%	8.4%	2.3%	3.38	3.50	+1.0
2028	27	MLB	PHI	11	11	60	255	70	22	6	27.4%	8.4%	2.3%	3.46	3.51	+1.0
2029	28	MLB	PHI	60	—	60	252	69	21	6	27.3%	8.5%	2.4%	3.51	3.54	+1.0
2030	29	MLB	PHI	58	—	58	246	66	21	6	26.9%	8.6%	2.4%	3.57	3.61	+0.9
2031	30	MLB	PHI	57	—	57	239	63	21	6	26.3%	8.7%	2.5%	3.65	3.71	+0.8
2032	31	MLB	PHI	55	—	55	231	59	20	6	25.7%	8.8%	2.5%	3.75	3.81	+0.7
2033	32	MLB	PHI	52	—	52	221	56	20	6	25.1%	8.9%	2.6%	3.86	3.93	+0.6
2034	33	MLB	PHI	50	—	50	211	52	19	6	24.4%	9.1%	2.7%	3.98	4.05	+0.5
2035	34	MLB	PHI	48	—	48	201	48	19	6	23.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.11	4.19	+0.4
2036	35	MLB	PHI	45	—	45	189	44	18	6	23.0%	9.5%	2.9%	4.25	4.34	+0.3
2037	36	MLB	PHI	42	—	42	177	39	17	5	22.2%	9.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.51	+0.2
2038	37	MLB	PHI	39	—	39	164	35	17	5	21.4%	10.1%	3.2%	4.57	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			203	2	199	823	223	61	14	27.1%	7.4%	1.8%	2.44	2.71	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—			204	2	200	826	224	61	14	27.1%	7.4%	1.8%	2.44	2.71	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orion Kerkering (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.53	27.2%	8.4%	2.3%	—	3.52	27.4%	18.9%	181	-0.01	—	—	—
Trevor Rosenthal R 2026 · 2.27 FIP	25	SW	2.27	28.9%	7.7%	1.2%	.330	2.68	33.4%	21.3%	88	+0.41	1.64	196	82
Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.46 FIP	24	SW	3.46	29.9%	10.4%	2.9%	.267	3.11	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.35	1.69	545	80
Bruce Rondón R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	25	SW	3.30	29.0%	10.0%	2.5%	.284	3.39	25.1%	10.5%	82	+0.09	3.30	184	78
Zach McAllister R 2028 · 2.83 FIP	27	SW	2.83	28.1%	6.4%	2.4%	.333	3.89	23.5%	16.0%	159	+1.06	2.83	363	78
Jeurys Familia R 2026 · 2.56 FIP	25	SW	2.56	27.9%	5.8%	2.0%	.268	2.39	26.2%	17.5%	174	-0.17	2.04	455	77
Ty Buttrey R 2026 · 2.43 FIP	25	SW	2.43	30.5%	7.7%	1.7%	.316	3.43	24.2%	17.4%	99	+1.00	2.43	522	77
Daniel Palencia R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	25	SW	2.91	28.4%	7.0%	2.4%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	280	77
Nick Anderson R 2027 · 2.64 FIP	26	SW	2.64	25.2%	7.7%	1.3%	.276	2.48	32.7%	26.6%	179	-0.16	0.98	394	76
Connor Brogdon R 2025 · 3.60 FIP	24	SW	3.60	29.7%	8.8%	3.5%	.236	3.43	23.6%	17.2%	102	-0.17	2.98	386	75
Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	25	SW	3.46	26.9%	9.5%	2.6%	.258	3.75	23.1%	14.7%	57	+0.29	3.46	134	75
Michael Mariot R 2027 · 2.39 FIP	26	SW	2.39	24.8%	6.2%	1.1%	.297	4.37	21.6%	11.8%	153	+1.98	2.39	676	75
Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP	25	SW	3.10	24.1%	7.4%	2.0%	.257	2.97	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.13	2.43	225	75
Ben Heller R 2026 · 2.93 FIP	25	SW	2.93	32.4%	9.4%	2.5%	.243	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	246	74
Blake Treinen R 2028 · 3.02 FIP	27	SW	3.02	23.2%	9.3%	1.3%	.314	2.56	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.46	1.54	521	74
Ryan Brasier R 2029 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	74
Kelvin Herrera R 2026 · 3.32 FIP	25	SW	3.32	22.4%	8.7%	1.8%	.245	3.33	25.0%	19.6%	176	+0.01	2.35	297	74
Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	25	SW	3.68	22.2%	7.6%	2.7%	.313	3.35	23.4%	12.8%	93	-0.33	2.78	312	74
Colten Brewer R 2026 · 2.53 FIP	25	SU	2.53	28.6%	7.6%	1.6%	.325	4.77	20.0%	7.4%	109	+2.24	2.53	526	74
Emilio Pagán R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	25	SW	4.10	26.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.267	3.49	29.2%	23.8%	214	-0.61	2.59	682	74
Keone Kela R 2026 · 2.83 FIP	25	SW	2.83	31.1%	8.0%	2.5%	.266	3.43	27.7%	18.5%	30	+0.60	2.55	246	74

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.058 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2027	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$8M	+$5M
2028	Arb-2	$5M	+1.0	$8M	+$3M
2029	Arb-3	$8M	+1.0	$9M	+$1M
Totals		$17M		$33M	+$17M