Orion Kerkering

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 204 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	68	2	67	2.14	1.75	30.7%	6.2%	2.3	K 28.8% · BB 6.6% · FIP 1.90
2025	24	MLBPHI	69	0	60	3.30	3.43	24.4%	9.0%	0.8
2026	25	MIX2 levels	66	0	62	4.79	3.55	24.0%	11.7%	0.7	K 23.5% · BB 12.3% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	26	MLBPHI	51	0	54	3.77	3.90	25.6%	10.4%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBPHI	36	0	38	3.87	3.94	25.6%	10.5%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBPHI	30	0	31	3.96	4.02	25.4%	10.7%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo88

xwOBA vs59

K%57

Form10.80 ERA (proj 3.77) · K 21.6% (proj 25.6%) · BB 11.4% (proj 10.4%) ▼ last 90d · 17 IP through Oct 27

CompsScott Oberg (age 26) · José Ramírez (age 26) · David Hernandez (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10596vR 88

ERA3.77

FIP3.90

K%25.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8897.2

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p5723.5%

xwOBA vs

p590.303

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	7	28	7	1	0	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	0.0%	3.86	1.44	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	7	28	7	1	0	0%	1.2	25.0%	3.6%	21.4%	0.0%	3.86	1.53	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	5 levels	52	0	57	222	85	14	4	0%	1.1	28.3%	7.4%	20.9%	3.1%	1.59	3.34	+0.8
2023	22	MIX RAW	5 levels	52	0	57	222	85	14	4	0%	1.1	38.3%	6.3%	32.0%	1.8%	1.59	1.76	+1.9
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	3%	1.0	28.8%	6.6%	22.2%	0.7%	2.14	1.90	+2.1
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	3%	1.0	28.8%	6.6%	22.2%	0.7%	2.14	1.90	+2.1
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	68	2	67	274	84	17	2	3%	1.0	30.7%	6.2%	24.5%	0.7%	2.14	1.75	+2.3
2025	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.1%	3.30	3.33	+0.9
2025	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.1%	3.30	3.33	+0.9
2025	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	69	0	60	266	65	24	6	0%	0.9	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.3%	3.30	3.43	+0.8
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	62	283	68	33	5	0%	0.9	23.5%	12.3%	11.2%	1.7%	4.79	3.63	+0.7
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	62	283	68	33	5	0%	0.9	23.5%	12.3%	11.2%	1.7%	4.79	3.63	+0.7
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	62	283	68	33	5	0%	0.9	24.0%	11.7%	12.4%	1.8%	4.79	3.55	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			198	2	184	805	208	76	13	1%	0.9	25.8%	9.4%	16.4%	1.6%	3.47	3.00	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PHI	51	0	54	228	58	24	5	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.4%	15.1%	2.3%	3.77	3.90	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	39	0	40	171	44	18	4	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.5%	15.0%	2.3%	3.87	3.94	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PHI	31	0	33	139	35	15	3	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.7%	14.8%	2.4%	3.96	4.02	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	41	17	4	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.5%	15.0%	2.3%	3.87	3.94	+0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	PHI	30	0	31	131	33	14	3	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.7%	14.8%	2.4%	3.96	4.02	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	2	254	1100	283	107	20	1%	1.0	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	1.8%	3.59	3.16	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		208	2	200	867	223	84	16	1%	1.0	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	1.8%	3.59	3.16	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		261	2	253	1073	280	94	19	1%	1.0	26.1%	8.8%	17.3%	1.8%	2.99	3.00	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		206	2	200	848	222	75	15	1%	1.0	26.1%	8.8%	17.3%	1.8%	2.99	3.00	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 22 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.75 (+0.85)K% 37.5% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.810	30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.68%	—	×1.100	6.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.050	×1.200	2.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 20 IPFIP 2.57 → 4.00 (+1.42)K% 33.8% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.75%	—	×0.770	25.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.150	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.858	×1.250	3.64%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AClearwater Threshers · 10 IPFIP -0.88 → 0.31 (+1.19)K% 51.4% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	51.43%	—	×0.740	38.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.86%	—	×1.180	3.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.88 → 0.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 6 IPFIP 1.07 → 1.60 (+0.53)K% 24.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.740	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.07 → 1.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orion Kerkering (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.90	25.6%	10.4%	2.3%	—	3.98	25.5%	14.9%	74	+0.08	—	—	—
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	78
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	76
David Hernandez R 2011 · 2.87 FIP	26	SU	2.87	26.5%	10.0%	1.4%	.249	2.89	30.4%	22.8%	131	+0.02	1.86	649	76
Esmil Rogers R 2012 · 3.14 FIP	26	SU	3.14	23.9%	7.5%	2.0%	.328	4.24	17.8%	10.0%	251	+1.10	2.86	616	76
Felix Rodriguez R 2000 · 3.04 FIP	27	SU	3.04	27.5%	11.6%	1.5%	.291	3.29	22.7%	13.5%	210	+0.25	2.54	576	75
Bob Howry R 2000 · 3.67 FIP	26	SU	3.67	20.8%	9.3%	2.1%	.245	4.13	17.1%	11.1%	147	+0.46	3.11	783	74
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	74
Yoervis Medina R 2014 · 3.01 FIP	26	SU	3.01	24.3%	10.1%	1.2%	.283	4.40	18.2%	6.6%	61	+1.39	3.01	186	74
Scott Strickland R 2002 · 3.45 FIP	26	SU	3.45	23.1%	8.0%	2.3%	.271	3.50	19.0%	8.3%	20	+0.05	2.78	236	74
Archie Bradley R 2019 · 3.06 FIP	26	SU	3.06	27.4%	10.7%	1.7%	.325	3.40	19.6%	11.7%	88	+0.34	2.23	570	73
José Ruiz R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	.244	4.43	23.4%	13.4%	182	+0.58	3.43	459	73
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	73
Jeff Zimmerman R 2000 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.337	3.58	26.4%	20.9%	71	-0.50	3.58	229	73
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	73
Jose Veras R 2008 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	24.9%	9.1%	2.8%	.281	4.10	23.8%	11.7%	169	+0.43	3.37	422	73
Yosver Zulueta R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	26	SU	3.35	24.3%	11.5%	1.6%	.339	4.16	24.0%	12.2%	105	+0.81	3.19	290	72
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	72
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	72
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	52	25.7%	10.2%	0.74	3.63
Antonio Osuna ('05)	2.4	61	24.0%	10.0%	0.81	3.68
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.5	50	24.0%	10.2%	0.92	3.81
Jeurys Familia ('23)	2.8	62	24.1%	11.1%	0.71	3.58
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*