Rhett Kouba — OGILVIE

Rhett Kouba P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 126

ERA5.76

FIP5.76

K%11.5%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%-2.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	18	73	20	2	2	50%	3.1	18.5%	2.3%	16.2%	2.1%	2.45	2.99	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	18	73	20	2	2	50%	3.1	27.4%	2.7%	24.7%	2.7%	2.45	2.66	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	71	305	85	27	9	56%	3.9	21.3%	10.2%	11.0%	3.8%	4.08	4.70	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	71	305	85	27	9	56%	3.9	27.9%	8.9%	19.0%	3.0%	4.08	3.50	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	128	538	136	37	14	86%	4.6	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	2.5%	3.45	3.62	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	128	538	136	37	14	86%	4.6	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	2.5%	3.45	3.62	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	128	538	136	37	14	86%	4.6	25.3%	6.9%	18.4%	2.6%	3.45	3.26	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	49	236	41	36	6	93%	3.5	12.3%	14.2%	-1.9%	3.0%	6.43	5.51	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	49	236	41	36	6	93%	3.5	12.3%	14.2%	-1.9%	3.0%	6.43	5.51	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	49	236	41	36	6	93%	3.5	17.4%	15.3%	2.1%	2.5%	6.43	5.22	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	38	4	80	354	51	46	8	11%	2.1	12.0%	11.7%	0.3%	2.6%	5.06	4.99	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	38	4	80	354	51	46	8	11%	2.1	12.0%	11.7%	0.3%	2.6%	5.06	4.99	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	38	4	80	354	51	46	8	11%	2.1	14.4%	13.0%	1.4%	2.3%	5.06	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	HOU	6	0	6	25	3	3	1	0%	1.0	11.5%	13.5%	-2.0%	2.8%	5.76	5.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	68	0	71	299	38	39	9	0%	1.0	12.7%	13.1%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.64	5.66	-0.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	66	0	69	290	39	38	9	0%	1.0	13.4%	13.0%	0.4%	3.0%	5.60	5.64	-0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	63	0	66	277	38	36	9	0%	1.0	13.6%	13.0%	0.6%	3.2%	5.64	5.71	-0.8
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	59	0	62	261	35	34	9	0%	1.0	13.5%	13.2%	0.3%	3.3%	5.75	5.85	-0.9
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	29	0	30	127	16	17	4	0%	1.0	12.7%	13.1%	-0.4%	2.9%	5.64	5.66	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	41	0	43	182	24	24	5	0%	1.0	13.4%	13.0%	0.4%	3.0%	5.60	5.64	-0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	46	0	48	203	28	26	6	0%	1.0	13.6%	13.0%	0.6%	3.2%	5.64	5.71	-0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	47	0	49	207	28	27	7	0%	1.0	13.5%	13.2%	0.3%	3.3%	5.75	5.85	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	0	170	719	96	94	22	0%	1.1	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	3.1%	5.66	5.34	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	113	110	26	0%	1.1	13.4%	13.1%	0.3%	3.1%	5.66	5.34	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		104	54	346	1506	260	146	43	52%	3.3	17.3%	9.7%	7.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.43	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	31	200	871	150	84	25	52%	3.3	17.3%	9.7%	7.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.43	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rhett Kouba (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.76	11.5%	13.5%	2.8%	—	5.67	13.2%	0.2%	205	-0.09	—	—	—
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	86
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	85
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	81
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	79
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	77
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	77
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	77
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	74
Logan Verrett R 2016 · 5.19 FIP	26	SW	5.19	15.4%	10.6%	3.7%	.283	4.65	17.8%	11.8%	94	-0.54	3.81	550	74
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	73
Jacob Dahlstrand R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	25	SW	5.73	8.6%	13.8%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	119	72
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	72
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	72
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	72
Hunter Adkins R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	11.8%	11.3%	2.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	160	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	12.9%	13.1%	1.17	5.68
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48