Rhett Kouba
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153144vR 135
ERA5.99
FIP5.99
K%12.1%
BB%15.5%
K-BB%-3.3%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 3 | 18 | 73 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 3.1 | 18.5% | 2.3% | 16.2% | 1.9% | 2.45 | 2.84 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 3 | 18 | 73 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 3.1 | 27.4% | 2.7% | 24.7% | 2.7% | 2.45 | 2.66 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 71 | 305 | 85 | 27 | 9 | 56% | 3.9 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 4.08 | 4.77 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 10 | 71 | 305 | 85 | 27 | 9 | 56% | 3.9 | 27.9% | 8.9% | 19.0% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 3.50 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 128 | 538 | 136 | 37 | 14 | 86% | 4.6 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 3.45 | 3.47 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 128 | 538 | 136 | 37 | 14 | 86% | 4.6 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 18.4% | 2.6% | 3.45 | 3.26 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 49 | 236 | 41 | 36 | 6 | 93% | 3.5 | 13.0% | 16.6% | -3.5% | 3.4% | 6.43 | 5.94 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 49 | 236 | 41 | 36 | 6 | 93% | 3.5 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 6.43 | 5.22 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 38 | 4 | 80 | 354 | 51 | 46 | 8 | 11% | 2.1 | 12.7% | 13.6% | -1.0% | 2.7% | 5.06 | 5.24 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 38 | 4 | 80 | 354 | 51 | 46 | 8 | 11% | 2.1 | 14.4% | 13.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 5.06 | 4.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 36 | 46 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 15.5% | -3.3% | 2.9% | 5.99 | 5.99 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 39 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 14.9% | -1.7% | 2.9% | 5.85 | 5.87 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 39 | 41 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 14.6% | -0.7% | 3.0% | 5.79 | 5.83 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.2% | 14.9% | -1.7% | 2.9% | 5.85 | 5.87 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 25 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.9% | 14.6% | -0.7% | 3.0% | 5.79 | 5.83 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 68 | 0 | 71 | 301 | 41 | 44 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 14.7% | -1.1% | 3.0% | 5.81 | 5.47 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 115 | 124 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 14.7% | -1.1% | 3.0% | 5.81 | 5.47 | -0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 104 | 54 | 346 | 1506 | 265 | 160 | 42 | 52% | 3.3 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.51 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 31 | 200 | 871 | 153 | 93 | 25 | 52% | 3.3 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rhett Kouba (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.99 | 12.1% | 15.5% | 2.9% | — | 5.85 | 13.6% | -1.2% | 136 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 80 |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 77 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 77 |
| Alex Caldera R 2029 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 75 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 75 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 73 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 72 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 72 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2027 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 72 |
| David Whitehead R 2024 · 5.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.99 | 10.7% | 19.2% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 217 | 72 |
| Jacob Dahlstrand R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 119 | 71 |
| Braxton Hyde R 2024 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.67 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 4.0% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 198 | 71 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 71 |
| Ryan Cusick R 2026 · 5.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.89 | 17.4% | 17.1% | 3.8% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.59 | 311 | 70 |
| John West R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 14.0% | 15.1% | 2.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | 161 | 70 |
| Andrew Bash R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .249 | 4.41 | 17.7% | 5.9% | 249 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 500 | 70 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 69 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 69 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 11.8% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 160 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 13.1% | 15.0% | 1.14 | 5.88 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |