Jared Simpson — OGILVIE

Jared Simpson P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146154vR 162

ERA6.79

FIP6.79

K%19.7%

BB%27.8%

K-BB%-8.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	17	5	0	0%	1.3	34.7%	10.2%	24.5%	0.0%	1.59	1.46	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	17	5	0	0%	1.3	34.7%	10.2%	24.5%	0.0%	1.59	1.46	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	17	5	0	0%	1.3	34.7%	10.2%	24.5%	0.0%	1.59	1.42	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	41	0	52	248	64	57	2	0%	1.3	19.9%	26.4%	-6.6%	1.0%	6.23	5.34	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	41	0	52	248	64	57	2	0%	1.3	19.9%	26.4%	-6.6%	1.0%	6.23	5.34	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	41	0	52	248	64	57	2	0%	1.3	25.8%	23.0%	2.8%	0.8%	6.23	4.43	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	4	14	4	3	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	21.4%	7.1%	0.0%	6.75	3.35	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	47	10	63	267	77	41	4	21%	1.3	23.6%	15.7%	7.8%	1.9%	2.59	4.12	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	47	10	63	267	77	41	4	21%	1.3	23.6%	15.7%	7.8%	1.9%	2.59	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	WSH	33	3	40	172	48	28	3	9%	1.2	27.9%	16.3%	11.6%	1.7%	2.04	3.76	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	WSH	11	7	19	81	25	10	1	64%	1.7	30.9%	12.3%	18.5%	1.2%	2.84	2.74	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	WSH	3	0	4	14	4	3	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	21.4%	7.1%	0.0%	6.75	3.40	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	WSH	3	0	4	14	4	3	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	21.4%	7.1%	0.0%	6.75	3.40	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	4	6	1	0%	1.1	19.7%	27.8%	-8.1%	2.7%	6.79	6.79	-0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	6	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	27.8%	-8.1%	2.7%	6.79	6.79	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	68	290	81	47	5	—	—	28.1%	16.3%	11.8%	1.6%	2.92	4.33	+0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	9	40	81	47	5	—	—	205.3%	119.3%	86.1%	11.6%	21.13	7.24	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	66	0	69	291	58	76	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	26.0%	-5.9%	2.7%	6.57	6.58	-1.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	64	0	67	282	57	70	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	24.9%	-4.7%	2.9%	6.46	6.50	-1.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	270	54	66	8	0%	1.0	20.1%	24.3%	-4.2%	3.0%	6.45	6.52	-1.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	63	0	66	279	56	72	8	0%	1.0	20.0%	26.0%	-5.9%	2.7%	6.57	6.58	-1.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	61	0	64	270	54	67	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	24.9%	-4.7%	2.9%	6.46	6.50	-1.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	58	0	61	258	52	63	8	0%	1.1	20.1%	24.3%	-4.2%	3.0%	6.45	6.52	-1.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		189	0	199	838	169	210	24	0%	1.1	20.2%	25.1%	-4.9%	2.8%	6.51	6.12	-3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	842	170	211	24	0%	1.1	20.2%	25.1%	-4.9%	2.8%	6.51	6.12	-3.6
Career	—	MLE		99	10	128	573	131	113	8	10%	1.3	22.9%	19.6%	3.3%	1.3%	3.94	4.38	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		155	16	200	895	205	176	12	10%	1.3	22.9%	19.6%	3.3%	1.3%	3.94	4.38	-4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Simpson (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.79	19.7%	27.8%	2.7%	—	6.53	20.1%	-5.0%	200	-0.26	—	—	—
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	76
Matt Mikulski L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	24	SW	6.17	16.4%	18.6%	3.8%	.303	5.90	16.3%	-3.3%	78	-0.27	4.92	223	76
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	75
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	74
Cam Booser L 2016 · 6.61 FIP	24	SU	6.61	19.8%	28.0%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	309	72
Yoan Aybar L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	20.9%	19.7%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	166	72
Trevor Seidenberger L 2016 · 6.29 FIP	24	SU	6.29	13.1%	14.9%	4.4%	.309	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	101	71
Dante Biasi L 2023 · 6.65 FIP	25	SU	6.65	20.1%	18.4%	5.3%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	4.91	224	69
Houston Harding L 2023 · 5.74 FIP	25	SU	5.74	17.9%	15.0%	4.1%	.307	4.83	14.4%	3.1%	142	-0.91	3.41	239	69
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	69
T.J. Sikkema L 2023 · 6.04 FIP	25	SU	6.04	16.1%	13.2%	4.8%	.245	3.86	17.1%	9.6%	159	-2.18	3.57	300	67
Ben Krauth L 2019 · 6.08 FIP	25	SU	6.08	17.2%	13.3%	5.0%	.261	5.90	19.8%	8.0%	88	-0.18	0.85	304	64
Gabriel Noguera L 2021 · 7.31 FIP	25	SU	7.31	19.1%	27.7%	4.2%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	174	64
Will Headean L 2019 · 6.03 FIP	25	SU	6.03	19.0%	26.5%	2.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	142	63
Matt Cronin L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	25	SU	5.83	16.1%	18.8%	3.1%	.289	2.11	22.9%	15.4%	57	-3.72	1.83	172	63
Tyler Thomas L 2022 · 6.20 FIP	26	SU	6.20	21.7%	15.1%	5.5%	.276	3.72	20.2%	9.1%	79	-2.48	2.67	279	61
Ryan Williamson L 2021 · 7.47 FIP	26	SU	7.47	20.0%	16.7%	7.2%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	123	61
Joe Filomeno L 2017 · 5.97 FIP	24	SU	5.97	15.2%	12.4%	4.7%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	150	60
Connor Bach L 2016 · 5.82 FIP	24	SU	5.82	18.5%	27.8%	1.4%	.206	—	—	—	—	—	4.48	124	60
Connor Higgins L 2022 · 6.38 FIP	26	SU	6.38	14.3%	16.4%	4.4%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	130	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	20.0%	25.8%	1.09	6.57
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15