Jared Simpson

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+WSH	2	0	2	0.00	1.10	22.2%	0.0%	—	K 22.2% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.22
2025	25	A+WSH	41	0	52	6.23	4.43	25.8%	23.0%	—	K 19.9% · BB 26.4% · FIP 5.34
2026	26	MIX3 levels	48	11	63	2.86	3.62	28.2%	16.5%	0.7	K 23.9% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	45	0	47	5.50	5.50	22.7%	20.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ78% MLB	28	MLBWSH	37	0	39	5.43	5.46	22.6%	19.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ83% MLB	29	MLBWSH	32	0	34	5.44	5.51	22.5%	18.6%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsNick Hagadone (age 27) · Brian Moran (age 26) · John Bale (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 138

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%22.7%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	17	5	0	0%	1.3	34.7%	10.2%	24.5%	0.0%	1.59	1.46	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	9	0	11	49	17	5	0	0%	1.3	34.7%	10.2%	24.5%	0.0%	1.59	1.42	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.22	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	2	0	2	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	41	0	52	248	64	57	2	0%	1.3	19.9%	26.4%	-6.6%	1.0%	6.23	5.34	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	41	0	52	248	64	57	2	0%	1.3	19.9%	26.4%	-6.6%	1.0%	6.23	5.34	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	41	0	52	248	64	57	2	0%	1.3	25.8%	23.0%	2.8%	0.8%	6.23	4.43	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	11	63	273	77	45	4	23%	1.3	23.9%	15.7%	8.1%	1.9%	2.86	4.10	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	11	63	273	77	45	4	23%	1.3	23.9%	15.7%	8.1%	1.9%	2.86	4.10	+0.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	11	63	273	77	45	4	23%	1.3	28.2%	16.5%	11.7%	1.5%	2.86	3.62	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	1	4	20	4	7	0	25%	1.1	20.0%	35.0%	-15.0%	0.0%	10.38	6.10	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	45	0	47	198	45	40	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	20.0%	2.7%	2.5%	5.50	5.50	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	47	0	50	209	47	40	6	0%	1.1	22.6%	19.1%	3.6%	2.7%	5.43	5.46	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	173	39	32	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	18.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.44	5.51	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	37	31	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	19.1%	3.6%	2.7%	5.43	5.46	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	32	0	34	144	32	27	4	0%	1.1	22.5%	18.6%	3.9%	2.9%	5.44	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	1	77	327	73	65	9	1%	1.1	22.4%	19.8%	2.6%	2.6%	5.71	5.15	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	3	200	849	190	169	23	1%	1.1	22.4%	19.8%	2.6%	2.6%	5.71	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		100	11	128	579	133	113	8	11%	1.3	23.0%	19.6%	3.4%	1.3%	4.07	4.36	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	17	200	902	208	177	12	11%	1.3	23.0%	19.6%	3.4%	1.3%	4.07	4.36	-2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 40 IPFIP 3.76 → 4.61 (+0.85)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.91%	—	×0.810	22.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.28%	—	×1.100	17.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.09%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.76 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 19 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.01 (+0.28)K% 30.9% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.86%	—	×0.860	26.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.35%	—	×0.900	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 52 IPFIP 4.27 → 5.34 (+1.07)K% 25.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.81%	—	×0.770	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.98%	—	×1.150	26.43%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷0.967	×1.250	1.04%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 11 IPFIP 1.46 → 2.46 (+0.99)K% 34.7% → 25.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.69%	—	×0.740	25.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.180	12.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.917	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.46 → 2.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jared Simpson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	22.7%	20.0%	2.5%	—	5.48	22.6%	3.7%	91	-0.02	—	—	—
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	79
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	77
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	77
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	77
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	76
Nick Lee L 2016 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	19.0%	19.7%	1.8%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	102	75
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	74
Brian Marconi L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SU	5.02	20.3%	18.2%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	101	74
Andrew Mitchell L 2022 · 6.04 FIP	27	SU	6.04	18.2%	17.0%	4.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	119	73
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	73
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	73
Hunter Cervenka L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	27	SU	5.91	18.9%	15.0%	4.6%	.282	3.10	25.9%	15.0%	81	-2.81	3.08	194	72
Austin Briggs L 2023 · 4.40 FIP	27	SU	4.40	19.8%	18.0%	1.3%	.307	5.30	12.1%	-7.0%	32	+0.90	3.62	187	71
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	71
Jacob Kroeger L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	24	SU	5.71	20.1%	34.0%	0.0%	.346	4.20	19.1%	6.7%	141	-1.51	3.94	154	70
Davis Schwab L 2022 · 5.70 FIP	25	SU	5.70	20.3%	18.7%	3.5%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	114	70
Gabriel Sequeira L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	23.0%	20.6%	2.1%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	160	70
Alex Torres L 2015 · 5.38 FIP	27	SU	5.38	22.7%	16.2%	3.9%	.227	4.20	18.5%	-0.1%	38	-1.18	2.10	184	70
Chandler Jozwiak L 2024 · 5.33 FIP	25	SU	5.33	16.9%	15.3%	3.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	161	69
Cody Reed L 2020 · 5.15 FIP	27	SU	5.15	21.8%	14.5%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	572	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	22.5%	19.8%	1.01	5.59
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*